The first two state elections of the year have come and gone in Germany, and things are starting to pick up again within the federal government.

For weeks, the coalition of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) had put governing on the back burner — for fear of causing discontent among voters in the states of Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate.

All the while, long-overdue reforms are needed to get Germany back on track — reforms that will require citizens to accept cuts to social benefits.

After taking office in May 2025, Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced what he called an "autumn of reforms." But it never materialized. Long periods of inaction and political gridlock are now taking their toll.

The most recent Deutschlandtrend survey showed 84% of respondents — a record high since Merz's government took power in May last year — are dissatisfied with its performance.

Even supporters of Merz's own party are losing faith in the government, the Deutschlandtrend survey published by public broadcaster ARD reveals. The poll, conducted by the polling firm infratest dimap, surveyed a representative sample of 1,316 eligible voters over the last two days of March.

Merz and Klingbeil see sharp declines

The coalition's plunge in popularity is also reflected in the popularity of its leaders. Chancellor Friedrich Merz (21% approval rating; -8) and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil of the center-left Social Democratic Party (18% approval rating; -15) have seen a significant loss of public trust. Both have now reached their lowest approval ratings since taking office.

This dissatisfaction is reflected in the aproval ratings of the parties. If a federal election were held now, the CDU/CSU and SPD would be far from securing a majority.

In comparison to last March, both the CDU/CSU and the SPD have lost two percentage points. The CDU/CSU currently stands at 26%, while the SPD has dropped to just 12%, thereby falling back to its record low from 2019.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party gained two percentage points, rising to 25%. Meanwhile, the environmentalist Green Party and the socialist Left Party each gained one percentage point, rising to 14% and 10%, respectively.

Other parties remain below the national threshold required for parliamentary representation, such as the economically left-wing, politically conservative Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), both at 3%.

The war in Iran is dashing hopes for an economic recovery

For the government, this means that it must now deliver results. There is great concern about the economy. Three years of recession and one year of stagnation have left a clear mark. Industry is shrinking, and production and jobs are being relocated abroad.

Slight signs of recent improvement have been wiped away by the war in Iran. If energy prices remain high or continue to rise, there is a risk of a new wave of inflation.

A total of 70% of citizens don't trust that the government will take the necessary measures to improve the economic situation.

The ruling coalition is planning a combination of tax cuts, lower energy prices, investment incentives and reduced bureaucracy in order to stabilize Germany's economy in the short term and make it more competitive in the long term. In addition, further relief measures for consumers have been announced for after Easter 2026.

Faster recognition of foreign professional qualifications

Another idea the coalition is considering is to allow companies to hire employees on fixed-term contracts for longer periods than before. Voters surveyed in the ARD Deutschlandtrend poll are divided on this issue: 48% think it's a good idea, while 44% do not.

On the other hand, there is strong support (74%) for fast-tracking the recognition of foreign professional qualifications so that migrants can enter the workforce more quickly.

Among voters for the far-right AfD, only 48% agree. But among voters for other parties, the approval rate ranges from 83% to 95%.

The wealthy should pay higher taxes

To plug the holes in the budget and, above all, to encourage women to work more, there are plans to abolish existing tax benefits for married couples in the future, known as the "spousal splitting." Some 54% of citizens oppose the idea, while only 32% think it is the right move. And 91% reject a general increase in the value-added tax. The personal tax and social security burden are already perceived as too high.

Overall, 66% of respondents feel that their tax burden is too high, while 28% consider it appropriate. As for tax breaks for low- and middle-income groups coupled with an increase in income tax on high incomes, about 76% of respondents would welcome such a move.

Pensions, health care, long-term care — there is no shortage of obstacles

Changes are on the horizon not only in the tax system but also in the social security system. Demographic change is putting pressure on the social security system. Germany is aging rapidly, with fewer and fewer working people paying for more and more pensioners.

In the long run, this is not sustainable. An aging population is also putting pressure on the healthcare system. It is too expensive and not efficient enough. In the coming years, the number of elderly people requiring care will rise rapidly.

Of the people surveyed in the Deutschlandtrend poll, 74% don't trust the government to take the necessary steps to make the social security system sustainable for the future. Three expert commissions have been set up to come up with reform proposals. While they're still looking into pensions and long-term care, the health commission released its findings at the end of March.

Among the proposals to ease the burden on the public health insurance system, a majority of citizens support higher taxes on alcohol, tobacco and soft drinks.

However, there are just as many people against higher copayments for medications and treatments as there are against ending free coverage for spouses or capping reimbursements for private practitioners and hospitals.

This article was originally published in German.