Bavaria's leading conservative has issued a downbeat assessment on the chances of the Christian Democrats leading a future German coalition, seemingly undermining Armin Laschet, who still hopes to succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor. 

The CSU's Markus Söder said on Wednesday that planned coalition talks between the Greens, the Free Democrats (FDP) and the Social Democrats (SPD)  would likely herald a temporary end to conservative-led government in Germany.

He said the two minor parties' decision to open formal talks with the SPD, which narrowly beat the CDU/CSU in September's elections, amounted to a "de-facto rejection" of a conservative-led coalition.

Speaking in Munich, Söder said, "The FDP und Greens have decided on this path ... They must now pursue it with due rigor."

"There will very likely be no government with the Union," he said, employing the term used to refer to the CDU/CSU bloc in Germany.

Söder, who was at one stage in the running to become the chancellor candidate for the conservative bloc but lost to CDU leader Armin Laschet, added: "We regret this decision."

Another senior CSU politician, Alexander Dobrindt, soon followed up with similar comments, saying he thought there was a "high probability" of the SPD, Greens and the FDP reaching an accord. Dobrindt said the conservatives "must prepare" for spending the next four years in opposition.

The dawn of a new era?

If coalition talks do result in a three-way coalition between election winners the SPD, the Greens and the FDP, it would be the first center-left-led government in Germany in 16 years.

"This will change our country," Söder said, adding: "The conservatives will enter a new era, too" in opposition.

His remarks have none of the optimism still expressed by Laschet, who still feels he has a chance at the top job despite leading the CDU/CSU to their worst-ever election result.

Laschet said that the CDU/CSU was still ready to hold talks, even though he "respected" the decision by the Greens and the FDP to first examine common ground with the SPD.

Söder, while also saying that his CSU was still open to coalition talks in principle, insisted that his party would not "lie in wait" in the hope of a new offer. He said that the conservatives would come into contention again only if no coalition was formed between the SPD, FDP and Greens — nicknamed a "traffic light" coalition on the basis of the parties' colors of red, yellow and green, respectively.

"If the traffic light fails, then [the SPD's Olaf] Scholz has failed as a chancellor candidate," he said. "But it makes no sense to carry on negotiations in the shadows."  

Scholz tops surveys

Germany's long relatively serene political landscape under Merkel was disrupted by last month's elections, which saw the center-left SPD win on 25.7% over Merkel's CDU/CSU bloc with 24.1%. The result means that either party would need the support of both the center-left Greens and the business-focused FDP, which came third and fourth, to head the next government. 

The Greens and FDP have said they have enough common ground and want to "build bridges" in order to govern. The three-way coalition talks with the SPD are scheduled to start on Thursday.

Recent surveys suggest that most Germans want Scholz, who is also finance minister and vice chancellor, to become Merkel's successor as leader of Europe's top economy.

tj/msh (AFP, dpa, Reuters)