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Germany: Far-right AfD draws level with conservatives — poll

Nik Martin with AFP, DPA
April 5, 2025

Germany's center-right parties and the far-right AfD are now polling neck and neck, the latest INSA survey showed. The CDU/CSU alliance is in advanced talks to form a new coalition with the center-left Social Democrats.

A billboard for Gerrmany's conseratives featuring likely next Chancellor Friedrich Merz is pictured behind a poster for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Berlin, Germany, on February 24, 2025
The far-right AfD has become a thorn in the side of Germany's established partiesImage: Michael Kappeler/dpa/picture alliance

Support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is now level with that of the country's conservatives, a national poll published on Saturday showed.

The survey by the INSA institute for Bild newspaper comes six weeks after Germany's federal election, which saw the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) come out on top.

The latest poll found that the center-right CDU/CSU alliance had 24% support, while the AfD also polled at 24%.

Support for Germany's conservatives fell by two percentage points since the last poll, just after the February 23 election, while the AfD rose by one percentage point.

Having lost more than a third of support in the election, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) polled at 16% in the latest INSA survey, maintaining the party's position in the ranking.

The environmentalist Greens and the Socialist Left Party polled neck and neck with 11% support.

The survey polled 1,206 voters between March 31 and April 4.

Visiting an eastern German town that backs the far-right AfD

03:09

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Could AfD overtake conservatives?

Germany's other major parties have ruled out working with the AfD, but the latest poll raises questions about how feasible it would be to maintain a so-called firewall against the far-right if the party were to begin to lead opinion polls on voter intentions.

Reacting to the party's best result ever, AfD co-chair Alice Weidel said: "There's no way around the AfD anymore." 

Writing on X, Weidel said citizens "don't want another left-wing government in which the CDU/CSU lets the SPD and Greens dictate their policies" and that it was now time for a "true, bourgeois political shift."

Weidel was referring to ongoing talks between the CDU/CSU alliance and the SPD to form the next coalition government. The environmentally-friendly Green Party is part of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-party coalition.

Merz's migration gamble

35:55

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Coalition talks make progress

Last month, the conservatives and SPD agreed on a preliminary deal to work toward forming a new coalition government. Talks continued in Berlin last week.

The CDU's likely next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has said he'd like to have a goverment formed by Easter.

On Friday, senior CDU representative Thorsten Frei admitted: "There is still a considerable way to go" in the talks.

The two sides have made progress and are "moving towards each other," Frei added. "Now, it's about getting the stumbling blocks out of the way."

Financial issues are believed to be a key bone of contention, with the CDU/CSU bloc seeking budget cuts while the SPD wants to protect welfare spending.

A likely trade war with the United States is piling extra pressure on both parties to quickly agree on a deal.

Germany's export-based economy is set to be hit hard by the 20% duties on US imports from the European Union.

The country's leading DAX stock market index fell 5% on Friday after dropping 3% on Thursday in reaction to US President Donald Trump's latest tariff announcement.

Edited by: Wesley Dockery

Nik Martin is one of DW's team of business reporters based in Bonn.
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