German voters of immigrant background are distancing themselves from the established parties even more than others, according to a study by the Berlin-based German Center for Integration and Migration Research (DeZIM). 

In 2023, 12% of eligible voters in Germany were of immigration background — meaning they or at least one of their parents were born without German citizenship. That amounts to more than seven million people in a population of close to 84 million. But they are drifting away from the traditional centrist parties. 

Nevertheless, according to the study, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) continues to have the greatest voter potential among immigrants and their descendants: Two out of three voters with an immigrant background said they considered the SPD a viable option. 

The center-right bloc of Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) is close behind in second place. Only one in five respondents categorically rejected these parties.

"Older respondents with an immigrant background lean toward the SPD," said Friederike Römer, co-author of the study, at an online press conference this week. "This bond has been relatively strong in the past, but that seems to be breaking down now among younger generations." 

AfD targets migrants 

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) has the least potential voters of immigrant background. Nearly two-thirds of those surveyed said voting for the far-right was out of the question. People with roots in Turkey, the Middle East and North Africa, in particular, reject the party, though the AfD does enjoy significant support among Germany's Russian community. 

Nevertheless, the AfD is working to win over the immigrant voter base.

"For a long time, it was the first party to communicate in immigrants' native languages using images that actually worked," said Martin Gerlach, federal executive director of the Turkish Community in Germany (TGD), recalling the AfD campaign in Berlin during the 2021 federal election.

"It read: 'Atatürk would vote for the AfD.' Other parties simply don't bother to think about these target groups. That's crazy, because if you win over big segments of voters with a migration background, you win elections."

Safety a priority for immigrants

The TGD was active in 60 German cities ahead of the last federal election in February 2025, encouraging voters of Turkish background to cast their ballots. But Gerlach has noticed that immigrants are not inherently pro-immigration; on the contrary, there is widespread skepticism toward new immigrants or refugees, an issue that the AfD has seized on. This, he argues, is just one of many reasons why other parties are losing support among those voters.

"The political parties don't address safety at all, and that's a huge issue," he said. "Yet people in our community feel extremely threatened in many parts of Germany — they don't even dare go to the Baltic Sea coast," he added, referring to a series of xenophobic attacks in that region. 

Gerlach believes that Islamophobia has a significant effect on voters from the Turkish community, but the centrist parties don't pay enough attention to it.

"Anti-discrimination policy is seen in Germany as something progressive and left-wing, yet for the Turkish-origin community, it is about being protected by the constitution in the truest sense of the word," he said. "I believe this is a narrative that could win over a great many people."

Are the political parties missing a trick on social change?

Political scientist Özgür Özvatan pointed out that by 2030, more than half of Germany's population will have an immigrant background. He has also been critical of the established parties, most recently in his 2025 book "Every Vote Counts — Underestimated by Democrats, Courted by Populists: Migrant Germans as a Political Force."

"They are not reaching out to voters with an immigrant background the way they should — neither to recruit them for their own party, nor as volunteers, nor simply as voters," he said. "Sadly, we're missing the boat with this social change." 

Özvatan argues that there is enormous potential to mobilize voters who have moved to Germany from authoritarian countries — people, for example, who have direct experience of trying to defend democracy.

"We can tap into that if we enable them to obtain citizenship with voting rights as quickly as possible," he said.

The AfD, meanwhile, relies on a strategy of addressing the Turkish diaspora while establishing connections to the right-wing authoritarian President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Furthermore, he said, the AfD has become very skilled at pitting people with immigrant backgrounds against one another.

"A great deal of effort is being put into telling older immigrants: 'You are different from the newcomers, this whole debate about migration and deportation won't affect you.' And this tactic works well with those who do not reject the AfD," said Özvatan.

This article has been translated from German.