The Confederations Cup begins on Wednesday and, if the majority of pundits can be trusted in their evaluation, a South American team will be collecting the spoils on June 29, therefore breaking the cycle of the trophy being retained by the holding federation.

This line of thinking has already ruled out a German or Greek victory, as the hosts and the European Champions are the only ones who can take over from France, the current holders from UEFA.

This is doing a major disservice to the Europeans even before a ball has been kicked in anger. While Greece may actually turn out to be the flash-in-the-pan that many expect, for Germany it seems especially harsh.

To write off the chances of Jürgen Klinsmann's young eagles without even a badly sung national anthem passing their lips is a more of an insult than a disservice. No doubt the tired argument of their inability to beat any of the top sides in the world in the last five years is being used to support the opinion that Germany will fail to win the Confederations Cup.

This, in my opinion, is just laziness; an excuse to avoid delving deeper into the machinations of the German team and asking why they may not have what it takes to deliver on home soil this month.

Underlying flaws

While it is bad form to give the Germans no chance at all before the tournament begins, it is entirely likely that the issues that many analysts avoid in their rush to praise the Brazilians and Argentineans may be the undoing of this undoubtedly talented but flawed German team.

Ironically, the Germans suffer from the same problem that plagues the World Champions at times -- they have problems defending.

This is a relatively new malaise for Germany, a team which has been world famous for decades for stinginess on the international stage. It used to be the Germans couldn’t score. But when they did, they had the resources to shut up shop and defend the 1-0 lead through to victory.

The current problem became evident under Rudi Völler and, while the German defense is tighter since Klinsmann took the helm, Germany's improving offensive play distracts from a continuing problem left over from the previous era.

Exciting attackers

Klinsmann finds himself with one problem most teams would dream to have: an excess of exciting, attacking players. You can tick them off as you look down the squad sheet…Ballack, Schweinsteiger (photo), Deisler, Podolski…Germany's threat comes from up-front and from midfield, giving the coach and the team unenviable options when attacking.

But what happens if they get caught on the break?

I would probably get laughed at or shouted down in any discussion on the subject by saying that the biggest loss to the German team for the Confed Cup has been the injury to Dietmar Hamann. For those holding their sides, wait until you see the Argentinean midfield breaking and bearing down on Thorsten Frings and then see who’s laughing.

Lacking an experienced protector

Germany have a potentially majestic back four in Andreas Hinkel, Per Mertesacker, Robert Huth and Thomas Hitzlsperger but this new generation lack the classic holding midfielder.

Defense starts in front of the defenders and Frings is not disciplined enough to play the role that Franz Beckenbauer and, to a lesser degree, Hamann have done to such effect if the Germans play 4-4-2. The defenders are even more exposed if Klinsmann opts for a 4-3-3 with Frings and Fabian Ernst deployed to the left and right with the central role going to an attack-minded Michael Ballack.

And it isn't just the fault of Frings. Bernd Schneider and Ballack often go missing when defensive duties come calling but it is the role bestowed on Frings that bears the responsibility. My jury remains out on his ability to protect his defenders.

The young back four without a savvy guardian in front of them may find themselves pulled all over the place by the likes of Javier Saviola and Juan Riquelme in the final Group A game against Argentina on June 21.

Attacking prowess

That said, Germany's attacking prowess against Australia and Tunisia is likely to be too much for these outside challengers and any threat the Oceania and African champions may present is unlikely to cause the Germans any irretrievable damage, seeing the home side through as runners-up.

But in the latter stages, against the free-wheeling Brazilians or meticulous Greeks, Germany may have more problems. Overcoming either of the top teams in Group B could set Germany up for a final against Argentina who are definitely one of the teams to beat.

It is they, not Brazil, who are my South American tip for the Confederation Cup with Germany suffering painful, but encouraging, heartbreak at the final hurdle.

Extracted from DW-WORLD's Confederations Cup blog