Support for the center-left and center-right parties in the run up to September's election has leveled out. Support for Merkel's CDU has fallen since the 2017 election.
Election posters have gone up all across Germany ahead of September's voteImage: Andreas Gora/picture alliance
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With just five weeks to go until Germany's parliamentary elections, the two parties in the current ruling coalition are set to win similar numbers of votes, according to a recent poll published by research institute INSA on Sunday.
The center-right conservative bloc (CDU/CSU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) polled equally at 22% for the first time in an INSA poll since April 2017.
Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU dropped three percentage points since August 14, while the SPD were up two percentage points. This leaves the SPD leading the Greens despite the latter's dramatic rise earlier in the year.
No clear coalition
Polling remained stable for the other main parties: The Greens, the pro-market liberal Free Democrats (FDP), the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the far-left Left (Linke) party.
If the poll results are the same on election day, September 26, no party will be able to form a government alone, likely leading to months of negotiating to build a coalition between several parties.
The current coalition of SPD and CDU would no longer be viable as together they would not control 50% of Bundestag. One of the key questions in the lead up to the election is which parties would be willing to enter a coalition with which other parties.
Germany's colorful coalition shorthand
Foreign flags and even traffic lights are used to describe the various coalitions that emerge in German elections. Coalitions are common under Germany's proportional representation system.
Image: Getty Images
Black-red coalition
The Conservatives black combined with the traditional red of the political left is the color code when the Christian Democrats govern in a "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats. This combination of Germany's two "big tent" parties, was in power first from 1966-69 and most recently for eight years until 2021, led by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Image: Odermann/IMAGO
Black and Green
The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has teamed up with the ecologist Greens in several German states cooperating smoothly at the regional level. On the national level the two parties see eye to eye especially on strong support for Ukraine. They disagree on nuclear and renewable energy, and many conservatives despise the Greens for their multicultural and "woke" positions.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Black, Red, Green — like Kenya's flag
The center-right CDU/CSU could also team up with the Greens and the center-left SPD. This three-way coalition would be an option for a comfortable majority. It has been tested on a regional level: The eastern German state of Saxony was governed by such a coalition until 2024.
Image: Fotolia/aaastocks
The Germany coalition — Black, Red and Yellow
The neoliberal FDP has been a junior coalition partner to both the center-right CDU/CSU and the center-left SPD. A three-way coalition was forged on the state level, for example in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt. While this combination was touted as a possibility ahead of the 2025 vote, the FDP failed to get into parliament, ruling it out from any coalition building.
Image: Hoffmann/Caro/picture alliance
'Traffic light' coalition — Red, Yellow, Green
From 2021-2025 Germany was governed by a center-left coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), ecologist Greens, and free-market-oriented neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), whose color is yellow. The government known as "Ampel" (traffic light) in Germany, started out as a self-declared "Fortschrittskoalition" (progress coalition) but got mired in infighting and became the least popular government ever.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/J.Büttner
'Jamaica' option — black, yellow and green
A three-way combination of Christian Democrats (CDU), the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), has been tested at a regional level. But the FDP and Greens described their positions as irreconcilable following the collapse of the center-left government in November 2024. With the FDP's defeat in the 2025 election it will not be an option on the national level for the foreseeable future
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/dpaweb
Black and Orange
Since 2018 Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) has been governing with the Free Voters (FV), whose color is Orange. The FV is a grass-roots populist and far-right-leaning party and is led by its controversial chairman Hubert Aiwanger. Strong in rural areas of southern and eastern Germany, the Freie Wähler is seeking a larger role at the national level and currently has three MEPs.
Image: Privat
Blackberry Coalition
CDU (black), SPD (red) and BSW (violet). The new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance's (BSW) color violet, seems fitting as it combines socialist, far-left (red) with populist right wing (blue) ideas in its platform. Although the party was only founded in 2024, it did so well in the eastern German states that it entered a coalition government with the SPD and CDU in the state of Thuringia.
Image: Colourbox
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Conservatives face loss of support
Sunday's poll, although far from being a final representation of voters' decisions on election day, marks a large drop in support for the conservatives since the 2017 election when they won 33% of the vote.
Although Germans do not vote directly for the chancellor, polls have shown Laschet's own personal popularity to be relatively low. The chancellor candidate for the SPD, Olaf Scholz, has continuously proven to be the most popular candidate with 34% of those polled saying they would vote for him to be chancellor if it were possible.
INSA surveyed 1,352 people between August 16 and 20 for its poll.
