Germany is facing its second winter without gas deliveries from Russia. But analysts say that for gas shortages to really bite, a lot of things would have to go wrong. Germans themselves are optimistic.
Nearly two-thirds of Germans surveyed believe they will get through the winter without any major energy problemsImage: Thomas Trutschel/photothek/picture alliance
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In the first year of it's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow tried to capitalize on concerns that energy would become scarce in Europe during the cold winter months. The Russians even made a short video to feed these fears, featuring tales of how Germans would freeze without supplies from Russia's Gazprom.
The Russian state-owned company halted all gas deliveries to Germany in late August 2022. But now, according to a recent study commissioned by the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), only 14% of Germans surveyed believe the upcoming winter could bring supply shortages.
This autumn, 64% of Germans believe they will get through the winter without any major problems — even if the supply situation remains patchy. In fact, 18% believe the situation is quite comfortable and are convinced that Germany will get through the winter without any problems at all. Only 4% were indecisive.
That means "four out of five participants surveyed believed Germany was well prepared for the upcoming winter," the BDEW reported.
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"Thanks to the good cooperation between the energy industry and politicians on the issue of supply security over the past year-and-a-half, we can now be relatively optimistic about the supply situation this winter," said BDEW managing director Kerstin Andreae.
Klaus Müller, president of the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA), the German regulatory office for electricity, gas and telecommunications, also said the country is in a much better position going into this winter. He noted that German gas storage facilities were full by November 5, and that gas imports were stable.
Müller's rosy forecasts are based on six new scenarios modeling Germany's gas supplies over the coming months. BNetzA presented these models in early November, and only two of the scenarios are any cause for alarm.
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Germans should 'continue to think carefully' about energy consumption
If the winter remains moderately cold, then BnetzA believes there's little threat of tight supplies. But this could change if temperatures drop significantly, as they did during the winter of 2012.
Another challenge might be if Russia completely cuts off gas deliveries to Europe via Ukraine later this month. This would force Germany, which currently holds the EU's largest gas storage capacities, to increase gas exports to Austria and southeast Europe.
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A final problem foreseen by BnetzA is if Germany is unable to import enough liquefied natural gas through terminals in Belgium and the Netherlands. That would be the case if domestic consumption in these neighboring nations increases due to lower temperatures.
Still, Müller did recommend that Germans remain frugal with their energy use. "No one should be too cold, but we ask people to continue to think carefully about how they can reduce their consumption," he said. Using less gas would also save money, he added. The average German household saved about €440 ($472) by using less gas between October 2022 and September 2023.
Germany and nuclear power — a love-hate relationship
Nuclear power has been celebrated, condemned, and banned in Germany. As energy imports from Russia came to an end, many began calling for it to make a comeback. Here's a look at the history of a love-hate relationship.
Image: Julian Stratenschulte/dpa/picture alliance
It all began with an 'egg'
Germany's first nuclear reactor went online in October 1957 in Garching near Munich. Given its shape, it was nicknamed the "atomic egg" and belonged to Munich's Technical University. It was a landmark in nuclear research and a symbol of a new beginning after WWII. In 1961, Germany began to produce energy for civilian use. Atomic energy was seen as safe and secure.
Image: Heinz-Jürgen Göttert/dpa/picture-alliance
The pushback begins
In the 1970s, opponents of nuclear energy questioned just how clean nuclear power was, seeing as there is no safe storage for spent fuel rods. Thousands of protesters clashed with police during a demonstration against the nuclear power plant Brokdorf, in the northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein. "Nuclear energy? No thanks," became the rallying cry for German environmentalists.
Image: Klaus Rose/imago images
'Nuclear energy? No thanks'
The danger of nuclear power soon became reality. On March 28, 1979, the plant at Three Mile Island, in the US state of Pennsylvania, had a serious accident. And on April 26, 1986, a reactor at the plant near Chernobyl, in Soviet Ukraine, exploded — causing an unprecedented nuclear disaster. A radioactive cloud spread across Europe. It was a watershed moment for Germany, with rotests gaining steam.
Image: Tim Brakemeier/dpa/picture-alliance
Birth of a new party
In 1980, a new party was founded in West Germany: the Greens. Their members were a mix of left-wingers, peaceniks, environmentalists — and a key contingency, nuclear opponents. The party made entered Bundestag, the German parliament, in 1983. Meanwhile, the Chernobyl accident prompted the creation of an environment ministry in Germany.
Image: AP/picture alliance
Wackersdorf: Tragedy and triumph
The Bavarian town of Wackersdorf was set to get a reprocessing plant for spent nuclear fuel rods, but riots broke out in protest. A number of demonstrators and civil service workers were killed, and hundreds more people were injured. Construction was halted in 1989. The German environmental movement claimed its first major victory — muted by the tragedy of lost lives.
Image: Istvan Bajzat/dpa/picture alliance
Gorleben: Radioactive waste in a salt mine
Meanwhile up north, the town of Gorleben — in the state of Lower Saxony — became a symbol of the fight against nuclear waste. The salt dome there was picked as an interim storage facility for nuclear waste. But already in 1977, a large-scale study revealed that groundwater was seeping in, corroding the barrels holding the waste. This of course posed a major risk of radioactive contamination.
Image: BREUEL-BILD/picture alliance
SPD-Green exit plans
Germany's exit from nuclear power has been marked by flip-flops. The center-left coalition of Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder intended the phaseout of nuclear energy in an agreement with big energy companies in 2001. An individual lifespan was determined for all 19 German nuclear power plants, requiring the last to be shut down by 2021.
Image: picture alliance
Rolling back — then rolling back the rollback
In 2010, the center-right government under Chancellor Angela Merkel revoked the deal and decided to extend the operating lives of Germany's nuclear power plants. But following the nuclear disaster at the Fukushima plant in Japan in 2011, Merkel abruptly announced the end to Germany's atomic era. In July 2011, the Bundestag voted to shut down all nuclear reactors by December 31, 2022.
Image: Michael Kappeler /dpa/picture alliance
Celebrating the end of nuclear energy in Germany
After years of especially intense protest, activists in the German towns of Grohnde, Gundremmingen and Brokdorf celebrated when the power plants there were switched off at the end of 2021. But the search for a safe waste repository continues. The nationwide location for a geologically suitable safe site for high-level radioactive waste is to be determined by 2031.
Image: Julian Stratenschulte/dpa/picture alliance
Should we stay or should we go?
In response to energy shortages due to the war in Ukraine, calls became louder to extend the lifespan of Germany's remaining three nuclear power plants. Green Party Economy Minister Robert Habeck (right) reluctantly agreed to put two of them on standby until mid-April. But FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner advocated extending all remaining power stations' lifespan well into 2024.
Image: Michael Kappeler/picture alliance/dpa
The chancellor decrees an extension
The dispute between the FDP and the Greens turned into a crucial test for the German governing coalition, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the end making use of his directives authority. In a letter to the finance, economy and environment ministries, he communicated his decision: The three remaining nuclear power plants are to continue operating until April 15, 2023. Parliament may amend the law.
Image: Markus Schreiber/AP Photo/picture alliance
Phase-out completed... or is it?
When the last three reactors were switched off on April 15, 2023, reactions were mixed. Defenders of nuclear energy argue that it could help Germany meet its goal of carbon neutrality by 2045. And two-thirds of Germans surveyed favored extending the lifespan of nuclear reactors. So Bavaria's Premier Markus Söder vowed to seek a way to continue operating the Isar 2 power station.
Image: :Bayerische Staatskanzlei via SVEN SIMON/IMAGO
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To sum up: if Germany does run low on gas this winter, it won't be until February. But for that to happen, several other things will have to happen simultaneously.
First, the upcoming winter would have to be particularly cold. Second, homes and industries would maintain a high consumption rate. Third, Russia would halt gas deliveries via Ukraine in November. Fourth, Germany would be forced to export considerable amounts from its storage facilities to southern Europe. And fifth, gas imports from Belgian and Dutch gas terminals would decline considerably.
Of course, such a scenario cannot be ruled out. But experts have said it's highly unlikely that all of these things happen at once.
This article was originally written in German.
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