The incoming coalition of the center-right conservative Christian Democratic Party and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) was in favor or reintroducing conscription in Germany.

However, their future partner in government, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) oppose compulsory service — they favor voluntary service. That is especially true for acting Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD), who will likely retain his post in the new federal government.

Thus, the likely future German Chancellor, CDU leader Friedrich Merz, during his presentation of the coalition agreement, announced: "We will strengthen military service in Germany, following the Swedish model — at first on a voluntary basis."

Following the Swedish model would mean sending a questionnaire to all 18-year-olds in a given year. Answering the questionnaire is mandatory for men and voluntary for women and includes questions about fitness and a willingness to serve in the military. The answers will help determine who will be invited to undergo a military physical examination.

"The idea is to select those who are the fittest, most suitable, and most motivated for military service," said Pistorius about his proposal last year.

This is essentially aimed at re-establishing a "military registration system," something Germany abandoned when it ended conscription in 2011.

A military registration system is designed to collect information on all citizens of military age, including data on age, health, abilities, and military experience — all of which is crucial for a potential call-up to military duty. Without it, Pistorius says, the state would not know who should be drafted in the event of a crisis.

Another goal is to make military service more attractive. The coalition agreement optimistically states: "Respect through demanding service, combined with opportunities for qualification, will continuously increase willingness to serve in the military."

Compulsory military service existed from 1957 to 2011

Conscription was suspended in 2011. The number of Bundeswehr service men had been continually decreasing ever since the end of the Cold War, when the army had half a million soldiers. Rather than focusing on national defense, it was then mostly focused on foreign missions. And for that it needed experienced troops — not 18-year-old soldiers drafted for a mere six months.

Today's security situation is once again fundamentally changed. Russia's war against Ukraine; hybrid attacks on NATO members; and the US government's disengagement from Europe — all of that has bolstered Germany's determination to improve its military position. That will include supplying more weapons to the Bundeswehr, for which the future German government has allocated significant funds. But it also wants to increase the number of soldiers on duty.

Currently, the Bundeswehr has just over 182,000 active service members. But it lacks pilots, IT specialists, and electrical engineers, among others. While it has plenty on offer — including a wide range of training programs, free train travel in uniform and free medical care, very few young people are applying for jobs. There are too many alternatives on the German labor market, as it struggles with a shortage of skilled workers. The CDU/CSU and SPD are hoping the Bundeswehr will become more attractive, once young people encounter the subject of national defense in the questionnaire.

How many conscripts can the Bundeswehr integrate?

Then there is also a pragmatic issue underlying the future government's reliance on voluntary military service: the Bundeswehr would not be able to accommodate and train all eligible candidates in Germany, due to a lack of infrastructure — in particular, accommodation and training facilities.

The army currently has 15,000 available spots for voluntary military service — around 10,000 of those are filled. The army could only comfortably accept an additional 5,000 voluntary soldiers, according to Carsten Breuer, Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, who adds: "We need potential for growth."

Breuer warns that if too many conscripts were recruited all at once, the Bundeswehr's operational readiness could suffer. A tank commander cannot train conscripts, and also "maintain operational readiness for his battle on NATO's eastern flank," he explained, during a discussion held at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

Should the new German government's approach to military service — which it describes in the coalition agreement as "initially based on voluntary participation" — fail, it could easily return to universal conscription. It was merely deactivated by law in 2011, not removed from the German constitution.

However, conscription would only apply only to men. In order for it to also apply to women, the Basic Law would need amending. And that would only be possible with a two-thirds majority vote in the Bundestag.

This article was originally written in German.

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