Earlier this month, Germany and the Philippines agreed to finalize a defense pact by the end of this year.

The agreement, which will enable joint military training and potential sales of German weapons to the Southeast Asian nation, comes at a time of escalating tensions in the South China Sea.

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro hosted German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in Manila earlier in August, marking the first visit by a German defense chief to the Philippines.

During the visit, both defense leaders expressed a shared commitment to strengthening military cooperation between their countries.

Teodoro announced that the proposed arrangement on defense cooperation is expected to be signed "before the end of the year."

The defense pact is anticipated to encompass joint training exercises, the sale of advanced weaponry and enhanced security-related information sharing.

Moreover, the collaboration is likely to extend to the transfer of military technology, which the Philippines urgently requires to modernize its air force and navy amid growing regional security challenges.

Teodoro highlighted the Philippines' interest in acquiring capabilities in command and control systems, anti-access aerial denial technologies, and other high-tech military equipment, signaling a strategic pivot toward bolstering its defense capabilities.

Germany's Indo-Pacific pivot

Germany's involvement in the Indo-Pacific has been on the rise in recent years. The German navy has conducted several freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, the latest of which departed Germany in May, underscoring Berlin's commitment to a rules-based international order.

This is in line with Germany's Indo-Pacific Strategy, released in 2020, which emphasizes the importance of maintaining free and open sea lanes in the region.

In a related development, on August 2, Germany joined the US-led United Nations Command in South Korea, which oversees the heavily fortified border with North Korea. This move further illustrates Germany's increasing military engagement in Asia.

The Philippines, for its part, has been actively seeking defense partnerships to counterbalance China's assertiveness in the South China Sea.

Last year, the Philippines renewed the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the United States after former President Rodrigo Duterte had previously threatened to terminate it.

The country has also signed similar agreements with Australia and Japan, and it recently conducted its first joint military drills with Vietnam.

Beijing's ire

China has reacted sharply to these developments. The Global Times, a state-run Chinese newspaper known for its nationalist rhetoric, criticized Germany's defense initiatives in the Philippines as an "opportunistic approach" intended to "provoke China" and placate Washington.

The publication also downplayed Germany's ability to provide substantial military assistance to the Philippines, citing the country's limited military footprint in the region.

That is not only the thought of Chinese experts.

"I doubt that Germany can affect the balance of power in Asia," said Alexander Vuving, professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu.

But that's not the purpose of the planned defense agreement, he added. "It is to demonstrate the two states' joint commitment to the 'rules-based' international order represented by UNCLOS," he said, referring to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

This legal framework, which grants coastal states exclusive rights to resources within their continental shelves, has been a cornerstone of maritime disputes in the South China Sea.

In 2016, an international tribunal in The Hague delivered a landmark ruling that rejected China's expansive claims over the South China Sea, a case originally brought forward by the Philippines.

Beijing has consistently refused to acknowledge this ruling, but it remains a pivotal point of reference for the Philippines and its allies in their ongoing efforts to assert their maritime rights.

Germany's Defense Minister Pistorius reaffirmed this stance during his visit to Manila, stating, "This ruling remains valid, without any exceptions. It is our obligation to strengthen maritime borders, and we are living up to it."

A battle for open waters

The economic stakes in the South China Sea disputes are substantial. The region is believed to be rich in oil and natural gas reserves, and China's aggressive posturing has hindered several Southeast Asian nations from exploring these resources.

Additionally, around a third of all global trade flows through the Malacca Straits and the South China Sea, making the security of these sea lanes critical for international commerce.

China's military buildup in the region, including the construction of artificial islands equipped with military bases and reports of a naval base in Cambodia, has raised alarms about the potential for Beijing to control vital maritime routes.

Neighboring states claim such control could disrupt global trade and undermine their sovereignty. Almost all of China's foreign trade, meanwhile, is shipped via these waters, and Beijing is also fretful that a Southeast Asian nation could attempt to blockade the South China Sea or harass Chinese vessels, which would impact China's economy.

Beijing has been trying to build a port in Myanmar, which would allow it to bypass the Malacca Straits, especially for oil from the Gulf, which the Chinese economy is dependent upon. However, the ongoing civil war in Myanmar has put that port on hold.

At present, there are concerns in Manila about whether the United States, a treaty ally of the Philippines, would be able to offer sufficient military assistance in the event of a conflict with China.

In response, Manila is attempting to ratchet up deterrence by involving as many countries as possible, including those from Europe, in upholding its legal claims over parts of the South China Sea.

"Germany, being heavily reliant on international trade, aims to show its Indo-Pacific partners — and China — that it is committed to maintaining the rules-based regional order," said Alfred Gerstl, an expert on Indo-Pacific international relations at the University of Vienna.

 "To achieve this, Berlin must regularly deploy naval assets to the region, participate in bilateral and multilateral naval drills, and make port calls to reinforce its strategic presence."

As the year progresses, all eyes will be on the finalization of the German-Philippine defense pact, a development that could signal a new chapter in the geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific region.

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru