Germany's new chancellor has already made it clear that support for Ukraine is one of his top priorities. Friedrich Merz, leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), made Kyiv one of his first stops as head of government. He demonstratively began his attempts to shore up help for Ukraine against the Russian invaders, together with the leaders of the UK, France, and Poland.

"For Merz, continued support for Ukraine is the linchpin of his foreign policy. He wants to make sure, the Russian threat to Europe is stopped, in Ukraine if possible," Henning Hoff of the German Council on Foreign Relations told DW.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is now in Berlin once again. This is his first visit since Merz took over from his predecessor, Olaf Scholz.

At a joint press conference after the talks, Merz promised Ukraine help with the procurement of long-range missiles. The aim was joint production. This could take place both in Ukraine and in Germany. There will be "no range restrictions" for such weapons, and "Ukraine can use them to defend itself fully, even against military targets outside its own territory," Merz added.

Germany will also continue to finance a significant part of the Starlink satellite communications system for Ukraine, said Merz. The system is operated by the aerospace company SpaceX, which was founded by US tech billionaire Elon Musk.

"In general, the new German government seems more willing to take greater risks and, together with its allies, put more pressure on Russia," said Henning Hoff.

Taurus missile debate

When it comes to German weapons, Merz has long set himself apart from his predecessor. As leader of the opposition, Merz repeatedly spoke out in favor of the delivery of Germany's long-range Taurus missiles. Former Chancellor Scholz, however, was strictly against it, fearing Germany would be pulled further towards war with Russia.

Since taking office, Merz has evaded questions on the Taurus, saying that "strategic ambiguity" was necessary.

"It is good if Putin is unclear about what we are supplying," Jens Spahn, parliamentary group leader of the conservative bloc in the Bundestag, told public broadcaster ZDF.

Ukraine is still hoping for Germany to deliver long-range weapons, Zelenskyy said in Wednesday's press conference in Berlin in response to a journalist's question. "Of course we need them, of course we will discuss this issue," the Ukrainian president said.

Empty threats are counterproductive

During their visit to Ukraine, the four European leaders had given Russia an ultimatum to Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire. In the event of a refusal, they threatened new sanctions. However, Russia not only let the deadline pass, but also launched some of the most violent attacks on civilian targets since the beginning of the war. And yet there were no consequences, as the four leaders had planned to implement the sanctions with US backing, which didn't materialize.

In the following days, Merz seemed to have given up faith in a solution at the negotiating table. Wars usually come to an end through the economic or military exhaustion of one or both sides, he said on Tuesday during a visit to Finland. "We are obviously still a long way from that in this war. That's why I expect that we may have to prepare for a longer duration," Merz added.

Trump: 'Putin has gone crazy'

At the same time, there seems to be some movement in the deadlocked European-American discussions. Until recently, US President Donald Trump had made it clear that he wanted to negotiate peace in Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin without involving the Europeans.

But now Trump seems to be exasperated with the Russian leader. After massive new Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian residential areas, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform: "He's gone absolutely crazy!" The president decried Putin's apparent desire for the whole of Ukraine. "Iit will lead to the downfall of Russia!" Trump declared.

This fuels hope in Berlin and Kyiv that Trump can still be won over to a joint approach. Can that succeed? "This is literally a multi-billion dollar question," said Henning Hoff. "The erratic US president is an admirer of Putin. The fact that he recently described him as 'completely crazy' could be a sign of disillusionment. Until now, the Kremlin has been counting on the US breaking away as a supporter of Ukraine under Trump and then the Europeans also losing heart."

This may have been a major miscalculation on Putin's part, Hoff explained.

However, both Zelenskyy and Merz continue to fear that the US under Trump could completely turn on Ukraine and the peace process at any moment. The question would then be whether the Europeans could carry the burden alone. "Even if it is difficult: They will have to," said Hoff.

Merz and Zelenskyy are likely to continue to try and keep Trump on board. Friedrich Merz will soon be making his inaugural visit to the White House. The Ukrainian and German leaders still seem to have hope that they can convince the US president to continue supporting Ukraine.

This article was originally written in German.

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