It came as a shock to Ukraine and to all those who want to support Kyiv unconditionally: the German government apparently wants to end financial aid for military aid to Ukraine from the federal budget after next year and instead tap into an international pot.

The reason for this is the extremely difficult budgetary situation in which the governing coalition of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Green Party, and the neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) is struggling to make ends meet.

Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) wrote in a letter to Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) that "new measures" involving payment obligations may only be agreed upon if "financing has been secured."

The German government has allocated €7.5 billion ($8.3 billion) in the 2024 budget for Ukraine, and another €4 billion ($4.4 billion) for 2025. After that, no further money will be earmarked for Ukraine in Germany's federal budget.

At that point, the money is expected to come from a new source, agreed upon by the representatives of the seven major Western industrialized nations, the G7, in June. At their summit meeting they declared that by the end of the year, around €50 billion ($55 billion) is supposed to have been raised in "additional funds," not as a substitute for national contributions.

The interest for these loans are to be paid for by, among other things, interest earnings from frozen Russian assets. However, it is still unclear if and when such revenues will accrue, how much they will be and whether they can be used in this manner. International negotiations on this are ongoing. The G7 had explicitly stated that these funds were not going to substitute national contributions to Ukraine's struggle.

Criticism from all sides

Ukraine's ambassador to Germany, Oleksii Makeiev, was quick to issue an urgent warning to the German government against cutting financial support to his country. "Cutting military aid to Ukraine means jeopardizing Europe's security," he wrote on X. "That would be fatal and must be avoided. The funds are there, it's a question of political will."

Criticism showered down on the government. Representatives of the largest opposition party, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), accused the German government of abandoning Ukraine. The opposition party is also in favor of using Russian assets -  not as a substitute for German funds, but in addition to them.

Critical voices are even coming from within the governing coalition. Michael Roth (SPD), chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Bundestag, said that Germany cannot make its support dependent on the budget situation. "We must not sacrifice the fate of Ukraine on the altar of the debt brake," he said in reference to a provision in the German constitution limiting public debt.

Green Party co-leader Omid Nouripour said in an interview with public broadcaster ARD: "This is not a good signal, certainly not for Ukraine and certainly not for our partner states, which are all involved."

Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann from the FDP, one of the most vehement supporters of military and financial aid to Ukraine and chair of the Defense Committee in the European Parliament, echoed the same sentiment. But she also held her partners accountable. She wrote on X that aid to Ukraine still needs to be stepped up. "But this is only possible together with our European partners, from whom we are demanding just as much commitment as before."

Fear ahead of the state elections?

The German government wants to limit aid to Ukraine not only because of the tight budget. In September, state elections will be held in three eastern German states: Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg. Polls predict good results for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), who want to end support for Ukraine and are in favor of reconciliation with Russia.

After the initial uproar over cutting aid to Ukraine, the German government is now trying to mitigate the damage: "The chancellor will keep his word that support for Ukraine will continue for as long as necessary and that no one, especially not the Russian president, can count on us letting up," said government spokesman Wolfgang Büchner.

However, he did not deny that a shift from the federal budget to international sources was being considered.

This article was originally written in German.

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