"See, we can get it done after all." That was the message the leaders of the three governing parties wanted to convey to the public on Thursday morning, July 2. It took seven hours of negotiations at the Chancellery for the leaders of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) parties and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) to arrive at their new 34-point reform package.

The reforms range from changes to the pension and healthcare systems to billions in tax cuts, reduced bureaucracy, and the liberalization of labor laws. The success of these reforms will matter not only to the health of the economy and the stability of the governing coalition, but also to the general mood in Germany.

German voters remain very concerned

In general, things have not been going well in Germany. After seven years, the economy remains in crisis and has yet to regain momentum. According to the latest Deutschlandtrend survey conducted for public broadcaster ARD, a good three-quarters of voters view this as a major problem. These findings are based on a survey of 1,317 eligible German voters conducted by the polling firm infratest dimap from June 29 to July 1.

Currently, one in four people in employment are worried about losing their jobs. Concerns about excessive immigration to Germany have eased slightly, although a narrow majority remains worried about "too many foreigners."

Climate change and its effects are once again firmly on people's minds. In June, Germany suffered through a heat wave with historically high temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius (104°F). Now, more than two-thirds of people now fear that global warming will destroy the foundations of life.

More investment to protect against heat

Some 89% of respondents believe that policymakers must allocate more funds to ensure that infrastructure such as transportation networks, schools, and hospitals are better prepared for future heat waves.

Additionally, 58% of respondents believe that climate protection must not be neglected, even when faced with other crises. However, large differences emerge when party affiliation is taken into account. Among voters for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) , 71% disagree.

Some 59% of respondents believe that industry, rather than individual consumers, has a greater responsibility when it comes to climate protection. However, 54% oppose incorporating the environmental costs of products into their prices, for example through a CO2 tax.

Pension system challenges

Back in June, a commission of experts presented a package of measures to reform the pension system. The governing coalition has now decided to implement all of these measures.

Demographic trends are putting massive pressure on the pension system. As the proportion of elderly people continues to grow, an ever-smaller number of working-age people must support them. This is becoming an increasing burden and is unfair to younger people.

Retirement benefits have declined in recent years, and more than half of Germans currently in the workforce fear they will face financial difficulties in old age. This is another problem that the pension reforms aim to address.

However, more than half of Germans currently do not believe that the planned reforms will make the pension system more stable. Voters for the AfD and the Left Party are particularly skeptical.

Cuts are unpopular

The pollsters at infratest dimap also asked respondents about their views on particular measures. They found strong support for the idea that politicians, self-employed individuals, and board members of corporations should also pay into the statutory pension insurance system. A majority also welcomes the introduction of a capital-backed supplementary pension system, with employers and employees each contributing an equal share.

On the other hand, cuts such as linking the retirement age to life expectancy or eliminating the option to retire at age 63 for long-term insured individuals remain unpopular. Overall, German voters are wary of the proposed package of measures: Only three in ten respondents expect it to lead to greater intergenerational fairness. Among those under 35, the figure is just two in ten.

Public opinion of the government has not improved

This shows once again that German voters have lost confidence in their government. In the latest ARD Deutschlandtrend poll, 86% of respondents say they are not satisfied — or not at all satisfied — with the work of the coalition parties. This sentiment prevails even among voters for the governing parties. Among CDU/CSU voters, 36% are satisfied, while among SPD voters, the figure is 27%.

Only 13% of those surveyed gave Chancellor and CDU leader Friedrich Merz positive ratings — a new low. Vice Chancellor and SPD leader Lars Klingbeil maintains a 21% approval rating, and AfD leader Alice Weidel is at 27%.

If a general election were held today, the AfD would become the strongest party nationwide. As in June, the party would receive 27% of the vote.

Meanwhile, the CDU/CSU has dropped by one point to 22% and is now at its lowest level since November 2021. The SPD has also fallen by one point to 12%. The Greens and The Left have each improved by one point and currently stand at 15% and 11%, respectively. All other parties would fail to enter the Bundestag due to the 5% threshold, including the liberal Free Democratic Party, which is at 4%.

This article was translated from German.