Just three days after the federal election victory of Germany's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU), the bloc's leader, Friedrich Merz, met with French President Emmanuel Macron for a private dinner in Paris.

After the dinner, Merz posted in French and German on X : "Thank you, dear Emmanuel Macron, for your friendship and your trust in Franco-German relations. Together, our countries can achieve great things for Europe."

If he manages to forge a coalition government, Merz may come into office in a few weeks' time. Until then, Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains in office.

But Merz is in a rush for a reason: US President Donald Trump may be on the verge of negotiating a peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the war in Ukraine. However, neither Ukraine nor the EU are at the negotiating table, although Trump has said Europe should be responsible for subsequent security guarantees for Ukraine.

Macron became the first European leader to visit Trump in Washington this week. However, he failed to make progress on Ukraine — and the US is still planning to impose its threatened import tariffs on European goods.

Merz wants Germany to become a "leading middle power"

Merz has accused the current German government of being too passive and letting German-Franco relations slide. "We must change from being a sleeping middle power to being a leading middle power," said Merz in a keynote speech on foreign policy before the election.

As head of government, he said he would prioritize reviving relations with France and Poland. The three countries together form what is called the "Weimar Triangle," which was formerly seen as an important alliance.

Promising signals from Warsaw

During Scholz's center-left government – a coalition with the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) which came to office in 2021 — there was often tension with both France and Poland.

While Poland's national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) government was in office, Berlin and Warsaw had completely different positions on migration and many social issues. Since the liberal Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk took office in 2023, relations have improved somewhat, but are still far from close.

Poland has a prominent role in the first half of this year, since it holds the rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union, and can therefore set its own European policy priorities. With regard to the situation in Ukraine, Polish Deputy Minister for European Affairs Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka told DW that, "The most important motto of the Polish presidency is: Security in Europe. At the moment, our primary goal is to keep Ukraine aid running," she added. 

And that is not a given: Countries such as Hungary and Slovakia identify more strongly with Donald Trump and want a normalization of relations with Moscow — even at Ukraine's expense.

Sobkowiak-Czarnecka congratulated Germany's election winner, Friedrich Merz: "We are close neighbors," she told DW. "Cooperation with our partners in Germany is always very important to us, and we are happy about the new government."

A strong Franco-German alliance is viewed with skepticism

France is traditionally Germany's closest European partner. But relations have cooled considerably — not only because of disagreements within Germany's outgoing coalition government — but also due to the different personalities of Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron. While Scholz is sober and reserved, Macron is rousing and has big visions.

Friedrich Merz and Emmanuel Macron now wish to make a new start in relations between their countries. However, there are potential obstacles.

Until a new German government is formed, Merz may face some competition with the incumbent Chancellor, Olaf Scholz. Merz announced that he sent a "Memorandum of Understanding" to Scholz, in which he laid out clear guidelines on what the still-chancellor may and may not do, during his remaining time as head of government. The German daily newspaper, Bild, responded with the headline: "Union wants to put Scholz on a leash!"

In addition, Macron is struggling domestically: With changing prime ministers, he is constantly worried about his parliamentary majority. If a new election were held in France today, opinion polls indicate that the far-right politician Marine Le Pen would win the race.

While Merz and Macron agree they would like a Franco-German engine to motor the entire EU, not all EU members want to be driven by the "big two nations." And with the election of Italy's right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — a Trump ally — an intra-European competitor has emerged.

EU does not "speak with one voice"

That is especially true for the current question of whether the EU would send peacekeeping ground troops to Ukraine to secure a peace deal between Trump and Putin. Macron is in favor. Merz is skeptical.

And what about Poland? "Each country should decide for itself — we don't do that at EU level," says Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka. "But we have decided that we will not send troops to Ukraine. We can help Ukraine logistically and in other ways. But as a country bordering a war zone, we have to take care of our own security, first and foremost."

EU leaders will be convening on March 6 in Brussels for a Ukraine crisis summit which will address aid for Ukraine.

Merz will not be able to attend as German head of government, but incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz has promised to keep him informed during the transition phase. Whether Merz will manage to put German-French relations on a new track, remains to be seen in the coming months.

This article was originally written in German.

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