After a string of scandals and just two weeks out from EU elections, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has been ejected from the European Parliamentary group it shared with France's Rassemblement National among others.

"The Bureau of the Identity and Democracy Group in the European Parliament has decided today to exclude the German delegation, AfD, with immediate effect," the political faction announced on Thursday.

The decision comes after Maximilian Krah, the AfD lead candidate in next month's poll, had to fire a senior staff member who was arrested on suspicion of spying for China. Krah's own ties to both China and Russia have also come into question since.

Then, comments in an Italian newspaper over the weekend about the Nazi era upset allies elsewhere in Europe, particularly in countries like France that fought against Germany in World War II. On Wednesday, the AfD banned Krah from making any campaign appareances seemingly seeking to contain the fallout. 

Right-wing red lines

It was too late. Krah had already triggered a Franco-German showdown. The chairman of RN, Jordan Bardella, accused Krah of crossing "red lines” after Krah relativized the criminal nature of the Nazi SS in the Italian newspaper La Repubblica at the weekend. The SS also committed serious war crimes and crimes against humanity in France during World War Two.

Such comments from the AfD, which is under observation by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Germany for suspected extremism, do not sit well with Marine Le Pen. For years, she has been trying to rebrand her party, which emerged from her father's National Front, as more moderate.

Le Pen is trying to pitch herself as a reasonable national-conservative ahead of her expected third bid to become French president in 2027. She and her RN are in the lead in the opinion polls for the European elections, far ahead of President Emmanuel Macron's liberal Renaissance.

Months of tensions building up

The two French and German right-wing parties in the Identity and Democracy (ID) group had actually been singing from the same sheet when it came to migration policy.

The problems began when it emerged that the AfD had held a conference late last year at which mass deportation – or "remigration" in right-wing jargon – of recognized asylum seekers was discussed.

Marine Le Pen summoned the AfD leadership and EU lawmaker Maximilian Krah to Paris. She asked for assurances that "Remigration" wouldn't make it into their party manifesto. She didn't get them.

By February, there was already a deep rift between the RN and the AfD, though Gunnar Beck, an AfD member of the European Parliament denied this to DW at the time.

A little bit of pre-election moderation

In Italy too, the right-wing populist Lega party led by former Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, terminated its cooperation with the AfD in the previously joint parliamentary group, according to group staff in Brussels.

After the European elections June 6 to 9, the right-wing populist and far-right parties from all the EU member states look set for a reshuffle. Until now, they were organized into two groups: Identity and Democracy (ID) and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). The ECR is considered to be somewhat more moderate and votes more often with the parliamentary majority on legislative proposals than the ID.

Sophie Russack, an analyst from the Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS) think tank in Brussels, says that the ECR has been toning things down. "They have tasted influence and power and they understood that in order to have a seat at the table, at the decision-making table, they need to do this moderation," Russack said.

Meloni's push to unite the right thwarted by AfD

Above all, it is Russia's war on Ukraine that has divided the groups. ID is home to a number of parties that are much softer on Russia, while in the ECR Poland's national-conservative PiS and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy have closely backed Kyiv.

This demarcation line seems to be softening. Marine Le Pen and Giorgia Meloni are no longer ruling out the possibility of working together in a new joint parliamentary group after the European elections. At a meeting of right-wing populist and far-right parties from across the European Union in Madrid last weekend, Meloni said she wanted to unite the right in Europe.

"I want to attempt, a challenging but fascinating task, to replicate in Europe what has been done in Italy, uniting parties compatible in their vision despite having completely different nuances… and sending the left into opposition," she said.

In Italy, Meloni formed a right-wing coalition composed of her Fratelli d'Italia, which emerged from a neo-fascist party, the right-wing populist Lega and the Christian Democrats of Forza Italia, party of the late Silvio Berlusconi. It governs Italy with comparative stability. At EU level, Meloni strikes a moderate tone and is committed to transatlantic friendship.

The German far-right AfD, with its closeness to Russia and radical criticism of the EU, no longer fits into this new alliance of the French RN, the Fratelli d'Italia and possibly Polish PiS members. The fact that an employee of the AfD's lead candidate Krah was arrested for alleged espionage for China and that Krah is under preliminary investigation had already spurred the formerly allied right-wing parties to distance themselves.

Pollsters project that right-wing populists, nationalist and far-right parties will make gains in the European election. Together, they could achieve as much as 25% of the 720 seats.

This article was originally written in German.