Since some places are opening up and others are under stay-at-home orders, it is hard to distinguish between a shop that is temporarily closed and one that is just gone. We are still in the middle of global chaos. Add the fact that bankruptcy and other legal proceedings are slow and it becomes clear that we are only dealing with things from the start of the year. The first big wave is yet to come.

Since many stores have been forced to close for weeks or even months, it's no surprise that retailers have been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. J.Crew, a preppy US retailer, declared bankruptcy and Esprit said it would close all its stores in Asia. Because of online shopping many of the companies were already on shaky ground before COVID-19 came along. The pandemic just hurried things along.

In the US, high-end department store Neiman Marcus is looking for bankruptcy protection, while 118-year-old JCPenney with its 800 stores filed for Chapter 11 in mid-May. Experts think more will follow. Germany's largest department store chain, Galeria Karstadt Kaufhof, is rumored to be looking into all its options. Whether these companies will just slim down or close altogether remains to be seen.

In the UK, a recent study concluded that one in 10 charities may close by the end of the year. They face the double threat of increased demand for services and less money coming in through fundraising. Again it is small local groups working in social care and disadvantaged communities that are most vulnerable. But even some famous groups like the National Trust are facing a steep cliff.

As mom-and-pop restaurants go out of business, many predict that the world will soon only be left with big national or international chains. But even some large chains were not on solid enough footing to pull through the COVID-19 closures. In Germany, Vapiano, a popular eatery, started bankruptcy proceedings and put itself up for sale. Maredo, a steakhouse chain, closed a third of its restaurants.

American car rental giant Hertz hit the skids in May because no one was renting cars. Its CEO quit, they filed for bankruptcy and laid off 10,000 employees in North America. The rest of the tourism industry didn't do much better. Lufthansa took a €9 billion ($8 billion) aid package from the government and Virgin Australia entered voluntary administration, though it's still operating some flights.

As the price of oil tanked because of low demand, many in the once robust industry took cover. In April, Diamond Offshore Drilling, Whiting Petroleum and Ultra Petroleum filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the US. But they are not calling it quits. Each say they are negotiating to restructure their debt with creditors and will soon be back in the black. They just need travel to get back to normal.

For months, orchestras, theater groups and sport teams have been mothballed or just play in front of cameras instead of thousands of fans. Besides missing the rush from the crowds, the groups are missing out on millions in ticket money and advertising. In mid-June, German professional soccer team FC Kaiserslautern announced it was entering bankruptcy proceedings. Experts think more will follow.

The past few months have been dramatic, but many have had the luxury of a government cushion in the form of subsidies or loans like many freelancers in Germany. The true economic scale of COVID-19 lockdowns will only come to light in the second half of the year. That's when subsidies will end and courts will have caught up and we will be buried in an avalanche of bankruptcies and unemployment.

Some see bankruptcy as a badge of pride, some as shameful. But it doesn't mean the end of the road. It has long been used to restructure and come out stronger. Henry Ford went bankrupt before starting the company we know today. During the 2008 financial crisis, GM and Chrysler filed for bankruptcy and made it. The coronavirus epidemic will cause pain — it may also bring about change for the good.