For the first time in its history, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has become the strongest party in a state election. In the eastern state of Thuringia, it emerged as the strongest party with about 33% of the vote. In neighboring Saxony, it came in second at around 30% — just behind the governing center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

The results had been awaited with suspense, as the domestic intelligence agencies in both states have classified the AfD as "confirmed right-wing extremists."

AfD state leader of Thuringia, Björn Höcke, is considered one of the most radical representatives of his party. He has repeatedly used Nazi rhetoric and was found guilty in court twice in 2024 alone for using a banned Nazi slogan at his campaign events.

AfD wants to govern

As soon as the results were published on Sunday evening, the AfD's national co-leader Tino Chrupalla upped the pressure on the other parties. "One thing is very clear: The will of the voters is that there should be a change in policy," he told public broadcaster ZDF. "We have a clear mandate to govern in Thuringia."

The AfD's central demand is a change in immigration policy. The party ran a campaign calling for the mass deportation of refugees from Germany.

However, the AfD will likely remain in opposition despite its election successes. This is because all other parties have ruled out any direct cooperation with the AfD.

"We are the No. 1 party in Thuringia," Höcke told public broadcaster ARD. He said his party would analyze the results and then approach possible coalition partners.

However, with or without the AfD, coalition building is set to be difficult in both Thuringia and Saxony.

Warning of damage to democracy

The rise of the AfD in Germany has been accompanied by protests and warnings for years, with right-wing extremism researchers pointing to racist and anti-democratic traditions in the party's ideology.

Political observers have drawn parallels between the rise of the AfD and the rise of Adolf Hitler's National Socialists in the late 1920s. Hitler's party, the NSDAP, managed to participate in government for the first time in the state of Thuringia in 1929. The NSDAP then began its first purges of the civil service and filled important offices with its own party members.

Historian Jens-Christian Wagner is the director of the memorial to the former Buchenwald concentration camp. Today, it is one of the most important German memorials to the horrors of the Nazi era.

Wagner has described the policies of the AfD as "inhuman and disgusting." He warned against voting for the AfD in Thuringia with an unusual campaign: In a letter to 350,000 households in the state, he accused  Höcke of "trying to make National Socialist language acceptable again." On his social media accounts, Wagner quickly called the election results a disaster for democracy.

Despite all the warnings, the AfD is more powerful than ever after the elections. And in all their initial statements, their leading politicians make it clear right at the start of the election evening: they want to see massive changes to German politics.

Enough seats to paralyze parliament?

Even if it's not in government in either state, the AfD will have a special instrument of power at its disposal: the so-called blocking minority. With its 30-plus share of the vote in Thuringia, it can block decisions that require a two-thirds majority in parliament, and thereby paralyze democratic processes.

Thuringia, for example, faces a huge wave of retirements in the judiciary in the coming months. The AfD will be able to block the appointment of constitutional judges, and it can hamper the work of the Judicial Selection Committee and thus the appointment of judges for life.

AfD state leader Höcke made it clear before the elections what he thinks of the German judiciary. After having been convicted twice in court for using a Nazi slogan, he accused the judiciary of pandering to his political opponents and threatened the judiciary on his social media channels. "We will not put up with this," he wrote. "This is what arbitrariness tastes like. I no longer have the feeling that we are living in a functioning constitutional state."

As the strongest political force, the AfD would also have the right to select the president of the state parliament, a position that holds far-reaching power. The president of the parliament organizes the election of the state premier and can appoint and dismiss important civil servants. The president of the parliament can also refuse to sign legislation into effect.

According to right-wing extremism expert David Begrich, a social scientist and theologian with the Miteinander e.V. association in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, the fact that the AfD is unlikely to become part of any government is not necessarily disappointing for the party.

"Particularly in eastern Germany, the AfD is not just a parliamentary party that is concerned with numerical majorities in parliament," Begrich said in a podcast right before Sunday's elections. "Rather, it is a political movement," he said, meaning it promotes its policies policy with speeches and activities outside of parliament.

Numerous grassroots organizations have been warning against this trend, saying for months that the AfD has shifted the political debate far to the right with its anti-immigration slogans.

Begrich cautioned German politicians against drawing the wrong conclusions from the state elections, and warned against condemning all voters in eastern Germany as far-right and undemocratic.

"You have to radically turn away from the AfD's political agenda and turn to the those in the east who are committed to safeguarding democracy," he said, insisting that after the AfD's election successes, it's important to strengthen small democratic initiatives in the regions and ensure their survival.

This article was originally written in German.

While you're here: Every Tuesday, DW editors round up what is happening in German politics and society. You can sign up here for the weekly email newsletter Berlin Briefing.