The opposition Greens have hit a record high in a new opinion poll, pulling ahead of Angela Merkel's conservatives. The center-left SPD have dropped even further, slipping behind the far-right Alternative for Germany.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/B. von Jutrczenka
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A Deutschlandtrend poll by Infratest dimap has put the environmentalist Greens up 6 percentage points at a record 26%, one point ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and sister party Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), reflecting a similar sampling last week.
In another boon for the Greens, the party's dual leadership of Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock polled at 36% and 26% respectively, placing them fourth and sixth as preferred national politicians in Thursday's findings published by Germany's ARD public broadcaster.
Only 27% thought Kramp-Karrenbauer would make a good chancellorImage: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Kappeler
AKK slumps
Merkel maintained her top placing at 53%, only 2% down from her Deutschlandtrend rating in May.
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who in December took over from Merkel as conservative CDU party leader, slumped 12 percentage points to 24% in the poll, which asked 1,500 Germans how they would vote if an election were to be held on Sunday.
The poor result for Kramp-Karrenbauer, also known as AKK, was her lowest rating yet in a Deutschlandtrend survey. Only 27% thought she would make a good chancellor.
Far-right AfD ahead of Social Democrats
For party preferences, respondents put the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 13%, just ahead of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), which is searching for a new leader after this week's resignation of Andrea Nahles, on 12%. For the Social Democrats and Merkel's conservatives, the Deutschlandtrend results are their worst ever.
The business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) remained at 8% Thursday, while the socialist Left party slipped to 7%, down 2% on last month.
In a separate sampling on Thursday, the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen polling agency put Merkel's conservatives at 27%, with the Greens close behind at 26%.
Merkel's coalition in doubt
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Dissatisfaction with Merkel government
In another Infratest sampling of 1,000 voters, 72% responded that they were somewhat or completely dissatisfied with the work of Merkel's coalition government of her conservatives and the SPD, a 10% rise in dissatisfaction since last month. Those who were satisfied or very satisfied with the coalition's work made up only 28%.
In a separate YouGov survey, a majority of 52% wanted a fresh federal election. Only 27% called for a continuation of Merkel's coalition government.
The most preferred future coalition for 25% of respondents was an alliance of the Greens, the SPD and Left party.
A so-called "Jamaica" alliance between Merkel's conservatives, the Greens and FDP came next at 15%, with a conservative-Greens scenario relegated to 14%.
Among Green party voters, 54% hoped their party would enter into an alliance with the SPD and Left party. Only 25% wanted a Greens-conservative model, along the lines of the governments in the regional states of Hesse and in Baden-Württemberg.
Next real test in eastern states
Merkel's ruling coalition — forged after months of wrangling in the wake of Germany's 2017 general election — is nominally due to stay in office until 2021.
The next election test for the conservatives comes in September and October, when regional assembly elections take place in Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia, three eastern German states where the far-right AfD is polling strongly.
A history of Germany's coalition governments
Only once has federal Germany been ruled by a single party with a parliamentary majority. Coalitions are, therefore, the norm. DW looks at the various governing combinations that have presided in the Bundestag.
Image: Fabrizio Bensch/REUTERS
CDU-SPD (2025-?)
Yet another coalition of the conservative Christian Democratic Union, Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and the center-left Social Democrat Party (SPD) has taken office on May 6, 2025. Both the CDU and the SPD have dwindled in recent years, so there is now no talk of "grand coalition" as they embark on a mission to save Germany's economy from decline and society from further polarization.
Image: Florian Gaertner/IMAGO
SPD-Green Party-FDP (2021-2024)
From 2021 until late 2024, Germany was governed by a center-left coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), ecologist Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), whose color is yellow. The government known as "Ampel" (traffic light) in Germany, started out as a self-declared "Fortschrittskoalition" (progress coalition) but got mired in infighting and became the least popular government ever.
Image: Michael Kappeler/dpa/picture alliance
CDU/CSU-SPD (2013-2021)
After taking more than 40% of the vote, Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives probably weren't expecting to rule with the SPD. However, her old allies, the FDP failed to meet the 5% threshold to enter the Bundestag, and options were limited. Merkel called on the SPD to join her and "take on the responsibility to build a stable government." She made the same speech again four years later.
Image: Maurizio Gambarini/dpa/picture alliance
CDU/CSU-FDP (2009-2013)
The SPD, part of the outgoing coalition, picked up a disappointing 23% in the 2009 federal election. The Free Democrats, by contrast, won more than 14% of the vote. Chancellor Angela Merkel (center) and the FDP's Guido Westerwelle (left) formed a coalition with relative ease. It was, after all, Germany's 11th CDU/CSU-FDP government.
Image: Markus Schreiber/AP Photo/picture alliance
CDU/CSU-SPD (2005-2009)
"Grand coalitions" do not come easily. When the first exit polls came in, both Gerhard Schröder (left) and Angela Merkel (right) declared themselves the winner. In the end, Merkel's conservatives defeated the SPD by just 1%. Germany's two largest parties agreed to form the country's second-ever grand coalition, and Schröder left politics.
Image: Stefan Sauer/dpa/picture alliance
SPD-Green Party (1998-2005 )
In 1998, the CDU/CSU lost a general election and SPD candidate Gerhard Schröder (left) became chancellor, heading a center-left government with the Green Party. Joschka Fischer of the Greens took over the Foreign Ministry.
Image: Andreas Altwein/dpa/picture-alliance
CDU-DSU-Democratic Awakening (1990)
Shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall, East Germany held its first free election. The Christian Democrats under Lothar de Maiziere took over 40% of the vote. They went into coalition with two small parties: German Social Union and Democratic Awakening, whose members included one Angela Merkel. In October that year, the government signed the reunification treaty with West Germany.
Image: Wolfgang Kumm/dpa/picture alliance
CDU/CSU-FDP (1982-1998)
The friendship between the SPD and FDP ended as the two parties' differing ideologies became irreconcilable in the early 1980s. The liberals again switched sides, seeking a deal with the conservatives. They formed a new CDU/CSU-FDP coalition under the leadership of Helmut Kohl (pictured), who remained chancellor for 16 years until well after German reunification.
SPD-FDP (1969-1982)
Willy Brandt (left) became Germany's first Social Democratic chancellor in the postwar period. The CDU/CSU was the strongest party, but Brandt struck a deal with the FDP to secure a narrow majority in the Bundestag. This wouldn't be the last time the FDP would be called out for a lack of loyalty. In 1974, Brandt was replaced by Helmut Schmidt (right), who went on to win two more elections.
Image: Sammy Minkoff/picture alliance
CDU/CSU - SPD (1966-1969)
The first-ever "grand coalition" was not the product of an election. Ludwig Erhard was re-elected in 1965 and continued to rule alongside the FDP who left the government in the following year over budget disputes. Erhard also resigned and Kurt Kiesinger (center) was chosen to take over. With the FDP out, he governed with the center-left Social Democrats, led by Willy Brandt.
Image: UPI/dpa/picture-alliance
CDU/CSU-FDP (1961-1966)
After four years of ruling West Germany on their own between 1957 and 1961, the conservatives lost their majority in the Bundestag and were forced to enter into coalition with the Free Democrats again. Adenauer resigned in 1963 for his part in the so-called "Spiegel" scandal. His economic affairs minister, Ludwig Erhard (left), was elected by parliament to take over.
Image: Alfred Hennig/dpa/picture-alliance
CDU/CSU-FDP-DP (1949-1961)
The first democratic government to govern West Germany since the end of World War II saw Christian Democratic Union leader Konrad Adenauer form a governing coalition with the Free Democrats and the German Party (a now-defunct national conservative party). It had a very slim majority. Small coalition partners fell by the wayside, eventually leaving the CDU/CSU to govern alone.
