Germany's ICU medics expect COVID surge before Christmas
December 1, 2021
Medics have warned that intensive care cases could soon exceed those at last winter's peak, with some 6,000 critical admissions by Christmas. Germany has recorded its highest level of coronavirus fatalities in 9 months.
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The president of Germany's DIVI association for intensive care on Wednesday warned that there could be 6,000 people in intensive care by Christmas regardless of what measures are implemented.
The warning comes as Germany records its highest daily death toll since last winter.
What are doctors saying?
DIVI President Gernot Marx predicted that more than 6,000 patients with COVID-19 would need intensive care treatment before Christmas and that the all-time high from last year would be exceeded.
Marx said more than 2,300 new patients had been admitted to intensive care units in the last week alone.
"The situation is really becoming increasingly tight," DIVI chief Gernot Marx told ZDF television, urging a temporary lockdown. "We need to save the clinics from collapse."
Marx said the situation was "particularly threatening" because there are about 4,000 fewer intensive care beds fewer than were available a year ago. "The situation is really increasingly tight," he said.
DIVI has called for at least 1 million vaccinations, including boosters, to be administered daily. But while the number of
vaccinations has risen sharply in recent days, it still falls well short of that threshold at an average of 660,000.
Germany caught up in fourth COVID wave
As the pandemic continues, infection rates are higher than ever, breakthrough infections are on the rise.
Image: Jan Woitas/dpa/picture alliance
ICUs are full
Hospitalization rates — the number of people admitted to hospital with COVID-19 — have reached the highest levels of last December. Intensive care units are filling up, patients have to be transported across the country to hospitals that still have capacity. Operations have to be cancelled, leaving cancer sufferers and other patients in the lurch.
Image: Jan Woitas/dpa/picture alliance
Longer stays
A COVID-19 patient with venous access lines and a tracheostomy sits in the intensive care unit of Dresden's municipal hospital. Using hospitalization rates as an incidence value is controversial: They show the incidence of infection, but only with a delay. Also, many COVID patients are younger than in previous waves. They spend longer in intensive care, meaning beds are not freed up as quickly.
Image: Robert Michael/dpa/picture alliance
Final warning
Undertakers have been overwhelmed, with coffins lined up here in front of a crematorium oven. On one of the lids, the word "Corona" has been written in chalk — a warning to the people who work there. The elderly and the unvaccinated are still most at risk of dying of the virus, but there are more and more breakthrough infections.
Image: Robert Michael/dpa/picture alliance
Fears for the elderly...
In recent weeks, there have been numerous outbreaks of COVID-19 in long-term care homes and retirement communities in which residents have died. This is one reason why the German government is considering mandatory vaccinations for health care workers. Italy, France and Greece have already made the move, and Austria will soon follow suit.
Image: Jens Kalaene/dpa/picture alliance
...and for the young
Self-testing in kindergartens and schools is now routine for children. No other population group is tested as regularly and extensively for COVID-19. Yet the incidence among 5 to 14-year-olds is up to three times higher than average. In an effort to stem a rise in cases, the European Medicines Agency approved the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine on November 25.
Image: Christian Charisius/dpa/picture alliance
Virus along for the ride
Since last week, new rules have applied in trains, trams and buses, such as here in Hamburg: Only those who have been vaccinated, tested negative, or have recently recovered from infection can use them. Drivers and on-board personnel are supposed to enforce this rule, but can only really do spot checks. Mask-wearing is still mandatory; those who don't comply face fines of up to €150 (about $170).
Image: Eibner/imago images
Drive-through vaccination
Because the vaccination rate is faltering, the German government intends to focus once again on low-threshold vaccination incentives, like vaccination drive-ins and mobile vaccination teams. It also wants to push ahead as fast as possible with the third booster vaccination — to "winter-proof" Germany's population, as Olaf Scholz, the presumed chancellor-elect, has said.
Image: Fabian Sommer/dpa/picture alliance
Open wide...
Given the increasing number of breakthrough infections and the decline in vaccination protection after six months, it seems that this is sorely needed. The only other thing that will help is systematic testing. For just one month, from October 11 to November 11, people were required to pay for tests, but these are now free again — irrespective of vaccination status.
Image: Julian Stratenschulte/dpa/picture alliance
My home is my office
Anyone who doesn't absolutely have to commute to work should therefore stay at home. The original working-from-home requirement ended in Germany in June — but now it's back. With infection rates spiraling, reducing contacts has to take precedence. Wherever possible, workplaces have been relocated back to the home office — to the kitchen table, or the sofa.
Image: Imago/S. Midzor
Lebkuchen or lockdown?
Christmas markets are starting to open in German towns, although many, like this one in Freiburg, have strict access rules and have limited visitor numbers. However, the state of Bavaria has responded to the extremely high infection rates by clamping down. Municipalities with a seven-day incidence of more than 1,000 must go into lockdown, and their Christmas markets must also remain closed.
Image: Philipp von Ditfurth/dpa/picture alliance
Tragic number
A man in a cemetery in Bonn mourns his dead wife — one of the 100,000 people in Germany who have died of COVID-19. Over the past few weeks, the number of those dying of COVID and infected with the virus has risen daily. On October 1, it was 66. On November 18, the Robert Koch Institute recorded 201 such deaths.
Image: Ute Grabowsky/photothek/imago images
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New spike in COVID deaths
Germany's Robert Koch Institute for disease control on Wednesday reported 446 COVID-19 deaths in the previous 24 hours — the highest daily figure since February 18.
The number — still less than half of what it was when fatalities peaked during the second wave at the end of last year — comes as authorities grapple with the implications of the new omicron variant.
The RKI figures bring Germany's total number of dead from COVID-19 to 101,790. The last time a higher daily figure was recorded was on February 20, when it was 490.
While the number of deaths is much lower than it was at its peak, the current number of infections at present is considerably higher.
Experts have attributed the lower death-to-infection ratio to the benefits of vaccination, which can protect against the most severe manifestations of the disease.
Although fatalities rose, the nationwide seven-day incidence rate fell for the second time in a row — to 442.9 people, from 452.2 people on Tuesday.
Already criticized by scientists and medics for acting too late, the leaders are expected to decide on the new measures on Thursday. Chancellor-designate Olaf Scholz has said he will back a proposal to mandate COVID vaccinations for everybody next year.
Planned measures include ramping up the vaccination campaign and restricting contact, especially for unvaccinated people.
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New omicron cases in Baden-Württemberg
Meanwhile, 4 people in the southern German state of Baden-Württemberg have tested positive for the omicron variant, despite having been fully vaccinated against coronavirus.
Three of the infected people returned from a business trip to South Africa on November 26 and 27, the state public health office said. The fourth is a family member of one of the returnees.
"All four people are fully vaccinated. A mutation analysis carried out by the state health office has confirmed that all of them are infected with the new variant of concern," the office said in a statement. All four were said to be in quarantine.