One day after Germany's national vote, parties are analyzing the results. The newly-elected parliamentary factions are scheduled to meet on Tuesday in Berlin. When can the formation of a new government be expected?
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/K. Nietfeld
Advertisement
After the last Bundestag election four years ago, it was nearly Christmas before the German government finally took shape. Coalition negotiations and the formation of a Cabinet can take place over many weeks — it took 86 days back in 2013. Ultimately, parties with differing platforms and priorities will have to negotiate with each other until a joint government program is in place. And that can take time.
Coalition talks could well be lengthy this time around as well. Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic and their Bavarian Christian Social Union sister party (CDU/CSU), the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) have differences on several points.
Will Santa Claus or the Bundestag's first "Jamaica coalition" come first? The answer is still in the stars, but all three parties have signaled their willingness to compromise before the first round of negotiations. For Merkel, it is about forming a stable government. If no CDU/CSU-Greens-FDP coalition were to come to fruition, all eyes would be on the Social Democrats (SPD), who would then be asked to reconsider their "no" to a new edition of the so-called grand coalition.
The parties' top candidates sat down for a Sunday night TV roundtable discussion after Germany's electionImage: picture alliance/dpa/G. Breloer
Thirty days after the election
While coalition negotiations can last for a long time, the freshly-elected Bundestag gets to work quickly. The first meetings of the new parliamentary party groups are planned for Tuesday. According to the German Constitution, the newly-elected Bundestag must be formed at the latest 30 days after the election, thus by October 24.
Until then, the previous federal government remains in office. Now, of course, it can happen that the new Bundestag cannot immediately elect (or re-elect) a chancellor because the coalition negotiations have not yet been finalized. In such a case, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will ask Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Cabinet to continue serving their offices until the final chancellorial election has taken place.
The new Bundestag, with 709 deputies, will be the largest in the history of Germany. Last time around, there were 630 members of parliament. The reason is the complicated German electoral law, and the mandates for the so-called "leveling" and "overhang" seats that assure the composition of the Bundestag will be proportionate to the actual selection of parties made by the electorate. Current Bundestag President Norbert Lammert had asked for a maximum of 630 deputies, but that did not come to pass.
It is also now necessary to clarify where the six party groups, or factions, will sit in the Bundestag's plenary chamber. Whether the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is to sit on the right side (from the Bundestag president's view) has not yet been settled. From 1949 to 2013, the FDP was always seated there.
The new Bundestag will feature 709 lawmakers - will they all fit?Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Amendments to the Rules of Procedure
The new parliament will for the first time be joined by 94 members of the AfD. Even before the election, the foreseeable arrival of the far-right populist party had made waves in the Bundestag. When the oldest member of the new Bundestag was likely to be an AfD candidate, the body quickly changed its rules of order. Previously, the oldest deputy has had the privilege of being the "elder president" and leading the constituent meeting of the newly-elected Bundestag, in which the actual body's president and his or her deputies are elected.
According to the old rules of procedure, the AfD politician Wilhelm von Gotberg, born in 1940, would have been allowed to assume this task. But the Bundestag put a stop to this. In June, parliament decided the role would be held not by the deputy most senior in age, but rather by the deputy most senior in service. Otherwise there would be the risk that "a newly-elected deputy without any experience" would lead the first meeting. Now, the "elder president" role will fall to 75-year-old Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU), who has been in the Bundestag for 45 years and again won the direct mandate in his constituency of Offenburg.
Following their election result on Sunday, the AfD will be entering the Bundestag for the first timeImage: Reuters/F. Bensch
AfD top candidate Alexander Gauland accused the other parties of resorting to "tricks" out of "fear of the AfD." It is also unclear whether the AfD parliamentary group will put up a member for Vice President of the Bundestag and in which committees it could take over the presidency. According to an old parliamentary tradition, the strongest group — in this case the CDU/CSU — has the right to nominate the candidate for the office of parliamentary president.
Bundestag elects the chancellor
The most important role of the new parliament is the election of the chancellor. He or she shall be elected, without debate and by secret ballot, on the recommendation of the German president. To be elected, the chancellor candidate needs the absolute majority of the deputies, the so-called "chancellor majority." So far, all chancellors, including Merkel, have been elected in the first round.
After coalition talks are all said and done, Merkel will be sworn in for a fourth term as chancellorImage: Reuters
If this does not happen, the constitution provides for further elections within 14 days and places another hurdle ahead of possible new elections: the person who receives the most votes in the last secret ballot round is elected chancellor. If the votes are less than the majority of the members of the Bundestag, then the German president decides whether to appoint the candidate or to dissolve the Bundestag.
Such an occurrence is extremely unlikely. What is certain, however, is that forming a government will take a few weeks. First, the parties have to agree internally to their negotiating teams and lines of negotiation. Then, in the face of the huge media interest, they must find a place where they can negotiate, undisturbed. Four years ago, these talks were held in the rooms of the parliamentary society, which are connected with the Reichstag building by an underground passageway. There the CDU/CSU and the Greens began negotiating with each other, but could not come to an agreement. In the end, the "grand coalition" of German political heavyweights — Merkel's CDU/CSU and the SPD — was formed.
Past winners of Germany's national elections
Eighteen times in the post-war era Germans have headed to the polls to elect a national parliament and, with it, a chancellor. These are the men and woman who have come out on top.
Image: Reuters
1949: Konrad Adenauer wins first post-war German election
The first election after the Second World War was arguably the most important in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany and certainly the closest. Konrad Adenauer of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) became West Germany's first chancellor by the margin of one vote - his own. Nonetheless, his government would prove very stable. And very popular.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
1953: Adenauer wins re-election
If the first West Germany election was a nail-biter, the second one was a runaway. The CDU under Konrad Adenauer took 45.2 percent of the vote compared to 28.8 for the Social Democrats (SPD). Thanks to coalitions with three other parties, Adenauer enjoyed a two-thirds majority in parliament.
Image: picture-alliance/akg-images
1957: Adenauer makes it three on the trot
In Germany's third election, Adenauer's CDU joined together with the Bavarian conservative party the Christian Social Union (CSU) to form the CDU-CSU, or what's often referred to as the "Union." Together they took more than 50 percent of the vote. Adenauer was 81 years old when he started his third term in office.
Image: AP
1961: One last hurrah for Adenauer
The 85-year-old Adenauer won one final election, but his term wasn't happy, as critics accused him of failing to respond adequately to the construction of the Berlin Wall, and he stepped down in 1963 in favor of conservative Vice-Chancellor and Economic Minister Ludwig Erhard. By 1961, only three parties were represented in the Bundestag: The CDU-CSU, SPD and the Free Democratic Party (FDP).
Image: picture alliance/Konrad Giehr
1965: Ludwig Erhard wins on back of economic miracle
Ludwig Erhard (right) succeeded in extending the conservatives' electoral winning streak, although their dominance was soon to end. The former economic minister received much credit for West Germany's prosperity, but he was no good at foreign policy and resigned halfway through his term. His replacement, Kurt Georg Kiesinger, was the only chancellor never to win election to the post.
1969: Willy Brandt becomes first Social Democratic chairman
The 1960s were a time when people in West Germany, like people throughout the world, were questioning traditions, and in the final year of the decade, West Berlin mayor Willy Brandt became the first Social Democrat chancellor. The SPD actually received fewer votes than the CDU-CSU, but a coalition deal with the FDP took them to power.
Image: picture-alliance/Wilhelm Bertram
1972: Brandt returns to office but not for long
The next German election was moved forward a year after parliamentarians held a vote of no confidence against Brandt. That move backfired for conservatives. For the first time in West German history, the SPD got more votes than the CDU-CSU in a Bundestag election. But a close associate of Brandt turned out to be an East German spy, and Brandt stepped down in favor of Helmut Schmidt.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
1976: Helmut Schmidt solidifies power
Brandt's successor Helmut Schmidt was able to retain the chancellorship in 1976 despite the SPD polling 6 percent less than the CDU-CSU. That was thanks to the SPD's coalition partners the FDP, who tipped the balance. This was the first West German election in which 18-year-olds were allowed to vote. The voting age had been lowered from 21 the previous year.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/F. Fischer
1980: Schmidt wins again but is on borrowed time
Schmidt had a relatively easy time getting re-elected, in part because the conservatives fielded a CSU candidate for the first time in their history. But like US President Jimmy Carter, he never succeeded in getting the electorate behind his government. In 1982, he was deserted by his coalition partners, the FDP, who joined forces with the CDU-CSU to replace Schmidt with a conservative chancellor.
Image: dpa
1983: Helmut Kohl begins long reign
To gain legitimacy, CDU Chancellor Helmut Kohl moved West Germany's national election forward a year. The move paid off as the conservatives trashed the SPD by 48.8 to 38.2 percent. Many leftists considered Kohl a figure too plodding and dimwitted to last for long. They were wrong. 1983 was also the year that the Greens entered the Bundestag for the first time.
Image: imago/Sven Simon
1987: Kohl rides conservative wave to re-election
The 1980s were a conservative decade, with Ronald Reagan in the US, Margaret Thatcher in the UK and Kohl in Germany, and the CDU man rode this trend to re-election. Kohl was happy to appear at Reagan's side during his famous "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" speech. Little did anyone know that the Wall would soon be coming down, and 1987 would be the final West German election.
Image: AP
1990: There's no beating 'unity chancellor' Kohl
Kohl toasted the reunification of Germany with East German Prime Minister Lothar de Maiziere on October 3, 1990, and two months later voters all over the country went to the polls in another early national election. The mood was euphoric, and there was no beating the "Unification Chancellor." Kohl was returned for a third stint in office.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
1994: A final triumph for Kohl
By 1994, five years after the Berlin Wall came down, the first social problems caused by reunification were becoming apparent. Nonetheless, Kohl won re-election relatively comfortably. That was in part due to a weak Social Democratic challenger who famously stumbled over the difference between net and gross on German TV.
Image: imago/teutopress
1998: Gerhard Schröder begins coalition experiment
By 1998, voters had had enough of Kohl, and Social Democrat Gerhard Schröder (left) was there to profit. The SPD drubbed the CDU-CSU 40.9 to 35.1 percent in the vote and formed a coalition with the Greens, led by Joschka Fischer (middle). 1998 was also the first time that the PDS (today the Left Party), the successor to the old East German socialist party, entered the Bundestag.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
2002: Schröder wins re-election post 9/11
The 2002 election was a dead heat, with both the SPD and the CDU-CSU taking 38.5 percent of the vote. Schröder was returned to office because coalition partners the Greens were stronger than the FDP. One of Schröder's main challenges was dealing with George W. Bush. After 9/11, the chancellor proclaimed "unlimited solidarity" with the US, but Germany did not support the Iraq War.
Image: Getty Images
2005: Merkel narrowly returns conservatives to power
Angela Merkel became Germany's first female chancellor in 2005, after Schröder, who was under fire for his austerity programs, engineered another early election. The former East German prevailed by a whisker. The conservatives' advantage over the SPD was less than 1 percent, and Merkel's first term in office was as the head of a "grand coalition" with her main rivals.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/G. Bergmann
2009: Merkel gets 'dream coalition' with FDP
Merkel's second national election was a much clearer affair than her first one. Support for the SPD plummeted, while the FDP, led by Guido Westerwelle, gained votes. As a result the conservatives were able to form a government with their preferred coalition partners. But for the centrist Merkel, this coalition seemed to fall quite short of a dream.
Image: Getty Images/A. Rentz
2013: Merkel celebrates third term in office
By 2013, Merkel was entrenched as Germany's most popular politician, and the conservatives finished way ahead of the SPD. But because the Free Democrats failed to clear the Bundestag's 5 percent hurdle and dropped out of parliament, the re-elected chancellor had to form another grand coalition. That didn't stop "Angie," as she was now affectionately known, from enjoying a beer.
