The business-oriented, neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) have put campaign posters up across the country reading: "Everything can be changed." The main thing they would like to change at the moment is the poll results. According to the latest surveys, the FDP is set to win less than the five percent of the vote needed to win representation in the Bundestag.

Today, the FDP can only dream of the 11.5% they achieved in the last federal election in 2021, after which they entered Germany's first-ever three-way coalition government with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the environmentalist Greens. The three made unlikely bedfellows, and after three years of infighting Germany's most unpopular government ever collapsed on November 6, 2024. On that day, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) dismissed  FDP leader Christian Lindner from his post as finance minister and called him out saying "he has broken my trust too often."

Support for all three parties has collapsed compared to 2021, but the FDP is suffering the most. It has seen a string of poor election outcomes on the regional and EU parliament levels, and abysmal polling numbers in survey after survey. The FDP is the only one of the three former partners which has to worry about re-entering the Bundestag.

Christian Lindner is the FDP mastermind

Christian Lindner has long been the face of the FDP. He reshaped the party when he took over as party chairman after the FDP last failed to reach the five percent hurdle in 2013. In an interview with DW, the FDP leader was nevertheless confident "Yes, I am convinced and certain that the FDP will not only be in the next Bundestag, but will also shape the political situation," he said.

Since he was dismissed as finance minister, Lindner has been fighting an uphill battle, taking up every opportunity to get media attention. At a party conference on February 9, chairman Lindner was greeted with frenetic applause from the delegates. He was interrupted several times by applause during his almost hour-long speech. The show of confidence is in stark contrast to the rumors that the FDP is already preparing for a future without Lindner once the election is over.

Lindner and his deputy Wolfgang Kubicki zoomed in on the Green Party, which is seen as one of two candidates to form a coalition government with the conservative bloc of Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) after the February 23 vote. "After the next federal election, we Free Democrats will not form a government together with the Greens," Lindner promised.

"We are the bulwark against black-green!" Kubicki told party delegates. In Germany, the parties are known by their respective colors: The FDP is yellow, the Conservatives are black, and the SPD is red.

Lindner zoomed in on his long-term rivalry with Green Party top candidate Robert Habeck, saying: "The crucial questions are: growth or stagnation? Freedom or state control? Lindner or Habeck?"

In his speech, Lindner clearly distanced himself from the parties on the far left and far right. "The center must not give way. Because if the center gives way, then the country will change,” Lindner shouted into the hall.

The FDP election program: Old time favorites

The FDP's election manifesto is full of familiar demands: Reduce taxes, reduce national debt, reduce bureaucracy, invest in education and put the economy first.

 "The time has come when 'economy first' must apply," Lindner said.

For this, the FDP is willing to sacrifice climate protection goals: It states that Germany will not achieve climate neutrality until 2050 instead of 2045.

In terms of migration policy, which has become the main topic of the German election campaign, the FDP backs stricter rules and controls.

FDP has few friends left

The CDU/CSU are the FDP's preferred partner.  However, according to all the polls, even if the FDP wins representation again, a black-yellow coalition will not hold a majority of seats in parliament.

The traditional alliance between the CDU/CSU and the FDP seems to be something of the past: The conservative candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, even publicly called on FDP voters to vote for the CDU so that their votes are not lost should the FDP fail to reach the five percent threshold.

The FDP has ruled out coalitions with the AfD, the Left Party and the new populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). That leaves only one option for government participation: a coalition with the CDU/CSU and SPD.

Party leader Lindner is not discouraged by all this: "Everything can be changed, but one thing must not change. That is the liberal character of the Federal Republic of Germany. And we will defend it!" he said.

This article was originally written in German.

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