As soon as the first election results came in from the small state of Saarland, with its 2 million inhabitants, political analysts were speaking of a slap in the face for the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its new chairman, Friedrich Merz.

The CDU had won 40.7% in the previous election, five years ago, but fell to a mere 28.5% on Sunday — the worst result since 1955 for the conservative party.

Saarland, one of Germany's 16 states, borders France and Luxembourg and has a population of just under 1 million inhabitants. Its economy is struggling and many fear for their jobs. The center-left Social Democrats' (SPD) top candidate, Anke Rehlinger — who currently serves as the tiny state's economy minister — is extremely popular and can now take over the reins of government without a coalition partner.

On Monday, 66-year-old CDU party chair Friedrich Merz told journalists in Berlin that he is disappointed with the result. But on the federal level, he quickly added, his party has seen a marked upswing in support since he took office at the beginning of this year. The latest opinion polls, however, do not seem to confirm this.

CDU after Angela Merkel: Older, male party base

The CDU is still short on young leaders and on women in prominent party posts. And just this weekend Julia Klöckner, who served as agriculture minister in former Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, handed over the party chair role in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate — to a male successor. The CDU now does not have a single woman as a regional party head. That, Merz admits, is "a problem," and he is determined to "change the party's image," he says. But that "can not happen overnight."

According to the CDU press office, only 27% of party members are women, and the average age of all members is 61. At the end of 2021, the party had 384,204 members — and there has not been a boost in numbers since Merz took over in January.

Andreas Püttman, a political scientist with the CDU-aligned Konrad Adenauer Foundation, recalls Merz's promise that he would restore the party to its former glory days, when it comfortably won over 40% in the polls.

Püttmann points to a survey conducted by pollster infratest dimap shortly before the Saarland election. Forty-five percent of respondents in the region said they were satisfied with Saarland's CDU State Premier Tobias Hans, who has now been voted out of office. But only 38% said they were happy with Friedrich Merz. "That is because Merz is simply not very likable," Püttmann says.

Merz, a multimillionaire with a pilot's license, won the party leadership race on his third attempt early this year. The commercial lawyer and staunch Catholic lost a power struggle with his erstwhile nemesis, Angela Merkel, in 2009, whereupon he left politics to head of the German branch of BlackRock, a major US investment company.

"The CDU is still in a process of readjustment under the new chairman, Merz," political scientist Uwe Jun, from Trier University, told DW. Naturally, he said, expectations are high for the new party boss. "Therefore, if such bad results are repeated, Merz himself will begin to falter."

But time is running out for the CDU to win voters' approval. More state elections are coming up in May. First, in Schleswig-Holstein, then in Merz' home state of North Rhine-Westphalia. In both states, a CDU premier currently leads the respective state government. And the vote in North Rhine-Westphalia — Germany's most populous state — takes on special significance and is often seen as a bellwether to gauge national sentiment.

CDU's strategy: 'A long-distance run'

Merz has repeatedly stressed that the CDU plans to hold on to power in both states, even though this would be hard work.

"We're not on a short-distance run here — we're on a long-distance run," he said and swiftly declared elections for the European Parliament in summer 2024 as the big touchstone. That would be the time for the CDU to defend its role as Germany's truly "European Party."

Jun does not expect a repeat of Sunday's poor result for the conservatives.

Andreas Püttmann said cracks might appear in the federal coalition government in Berlin — which could benefit the largest opposition party: the CDU.

This article was originally written in German.

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