Many observers had seen it coming, but the shock was still profound. When the first projections for the state elections in the eastern German states of Thuringia and Saxony appeared on the screens on the evening of September 1, it was clear that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was the big winner.

In Thuringia, it became the strongest party, far ahead of the established mainstream parties, the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) and center-left Social Democrats (SPD). In Saxony, the AfD finished second with 30.6%.

The left-wing nationalist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), founded at the beginning of the year by former members of the socialist Left Party, finished third in both states, securing 11.8% of the vote in Saxony and 15.8% in Thuringia.

Both the AfD and the BSW are currently decisive political forces in both federal states. Their primary issues are the rejection of an open asylum and migration policy, and less support for Ukraine in the fight against Russia.

These developments represent a turning point for the postwar German party system. Never before in has there been such a massive shift away from traditional parties such as the CDU and SPD.

New parties a reaction to societal change

"There are two perspectives on this: one says that new parties such as the AfD or the Wagenknecht alliance are a reaction to current events, such as the dispute in the governing coalition or the general disappointment with the mainstream parties," Endre Borbáth, a political scientist at the Center for Civil Society Research (WZB) in Berlin, tells DW. 

However, Borbáth says the new parties also represent a systematic process of societal change in Germany. "I am convinced that the change in society due to new issues such as migration or European integration or climate change is the reason for the change. These issues are not well represented by the mainstream parties."

In Germany, the conservatives from the CDU (and its Bavarian sister party the CSU) and SPD are primarily referred to as the "people's parties," or "Volksparteien." Together with the economically liberal FDP party, they have dominated the political scene for many decades.

Other small parties such as the nationalist German Party (DP) quickly disappeared into obscurity in the years between 1950 and 1960. Even a few electoral successes, such as those of the far-right, neo-Nazi National Democratic Party of Germany (NPD) at the end of the 1960s, did nothing to change this. 

In the Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament, the CDU, CSU, SPD and FDP determined the course of the country. To this day, every chancellor has been a member of either the CDU or the SPD.

Enter the Greens and Left Party

The first fundamental change to this system was marked by the entry of the Greens into the Bundestag in 1983. Environmental and climate protection, the rejection of nuclear power, and foreign policy based on peace building had not really been taken seriously by the established parties.

After German reunification in 1990, the Left Party, successor to the former German Democratic Republic party of government, the Socialist Unity Party (SED), entered the Bundestag. In the years since, the Left has served the function of taking the many loyal SED supporters with it into a united, democratic Germany.

However, the latest elections show that the Left Party is fighting for its existence. "The Left Party used to be united on economic and socio-economic issues. But now it is struggling to find its position on new issues,” says Borbáth. He added that its focus on gender issues, for example, is scaring off its core voters.

Party system is fragmenting

At the same time as nationalist forces are gaining strength, the established parties are losing ground. The CDU, CSU or SPD still govern 14 out of 16 German states, but in the last federal election the SPD, with current Chancellor Olaf Scholz as its candidate, won just 25.7% of the vote.

This was still enough to form a government together with the Greens and the FDP. However, for comparison: the SPD achieved its best result in a federal election in 1972 under Chancellor Willy Brandt, who secured 45.8% of the vote. Today, both major parties can only dream of such numbers.

Borbáth sees the loss of confidence in the traditional governing parties as a trend that goes beyond Germany. "This is particularly true for the SPD, and we can also see this in other European countries. Social democratic parties are mainly losing ground to green or radical left-wing groups. On the other hand, the AfD is a major threat to the CDU, because many AfD voters either didn't vote at all in the past or voted for the CDU."

What can the established parties do to regain trust? At the moment, the SPD and CDU are trying to outbid each other with increasingly radical calls to reform asylum and immigration policy, which is also a direct consequence of the election results in Saxony and Thuringia.

Borbáth thinks this is wrong: "If the federal government talks more about these issues, about radical measures, then that normalizes the AfD a little. That's why I think it's wrong to focus too much on these issues."

In other words: Politicians should take such concerns seriously, but not let the far-right AfD determine the terms of the debate. "I'm not saying that the mainstream parties shouldn't talk about these issues, but they should think carefully about how they talk about them."

This article was originally published in German.