A majority of Germans feel that after years of moving towards the middle, the SPD and CDU are returning to their traditional corners. Nearly three-quarters of respondents to a new poll think this is the right way to go.
Image: picture-alliance/Bildagentur-online/Ohde
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Germany's ruling parties are slowly starting to differentiate themselves again, according to a new voter poll published on Friday. The most recent debates over immigration and social welfare are starting to show the contrast between the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and Chancellor Angela Merkel's center-right Christian Democrats (CDU).
According to public broadcaster ARD's Deutschlandtrend poll, 74 percent of Germans "strongly agree" that the SPD and CDU appear to be showing stronger individual identities than in the past. The same number of people believe that they should continue to do so.
After years of ruling together in a so-called "grand coalition," Germans saw the two parties come closer and closer together towards the political center,losing support as they did so. Now, however, as Merkel's successor, CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, pursues a harder line on immigration and the SPD is pushing harder for social reforms, like a guaranteed basic income for pensioners, both parties appear to be shifting back towards their traditional corners.
At the same time, support for both parties appeared to rise slightly, with both logging an extra percentage point of popularity since last week's poll. This brings the SPD up to 18 percent just a few months after it hit a historic low of only 14 percent support.
The new numbers mean that the Greens' relatively brief time as Germany's second-most popular party may be drawing to a close, as it is now neck and neck with the SPD.
From AKK to Ziemiak: 10 German political names to know in 2019
DW looks at who are likely to be the biggest movers and shakers in German politics in 2019. And what better place to begin than with the new head of the conservative CDU party?
Image: Reuters/F. Bimmer
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer: Up, up and AKK for the CDU?
We start our list with the name that's most difficult for foreigners to pronounce. AKK, as Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is often known, has taken over from Angela Merkel as head of the Christian Democratic Union and must try to heal divisions between the party's conservative and centrist wings. It's a crucial task, one which may affect whether Merkel sees out the remainder of her term as chancellor.
Image: Reuters/K. Pfaffenbach
Robert Habeck: Bringing Greens even more into the mainstream?
The possible threat to Merkel is down to a new generation of pragmatic, stylish leaders embodied by no one better than Green party co-leader Robert Habeck. His influence has led many people in Germany to talk about conservative-Green coalitions as being the way of the future. Habeck will be instrumental in determining the course the environmentalists choose to take in 2019.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/H. Schmidt
Michael Kretschmer: Can he keep Saxony safe for Merkel?
Of the four regional elections in 2019, the one in Saxony is arguably the most significant. Saxony has always been a conservative stronghold. The CDU has led every government there since German reunification in 1990. But incumbent State Premier Michael Kretschmer (above right) faces a tough re-election battle, with the CDU polling only around 30 percent. A loss here would have major repercussions.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/S. Willnow
Kevin Kühnert: Will he persuade the SPD to ditch the grand coalition?
Many Social Democrats are unhappy with the party's "GroKo" coalitions with Merkel's conservatives, seeing them as a betrayal of Social Democratic values and a reason for the SPD's precipitous plummet in the polls. The party is scheduled to re-evaluate its current partnership at the end of 2019, so expect to hear a lot from the leader of the No GroKo movement, youth chapter leader Kevin Kühnert.
Image: Imago/R. Zensen
Christian Lindner: Will the FDP give Jamaica another shot?
Should the government fall apart, there will be immediate calls for a Jamaica coalition between the conservatives, Greens and the center-right Free Democrats. FDP leader Christian Lindner scuppered that idea in late 2017 after the last election, but has indicated he would be receptive to a tripartite political alliance if Merkel were no longer chancellor. He may play kingmaker in late 2019.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/T. Schwarz
Bodo Ramelow: First and last Left party state premier?
Another key regional election is in Thuringia, where incumbent Bodo Ramelow is the first and only state premier to come from the Left party, the successor to the socialist party in Communist East Germany. Whether he can fend off challenges from traditional conservatives and far-right populists will say a lot about the future of leftist parties in the economically lagging eastern part of Germany.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Schutt
Frank-Walter Steinmeier: Will he have to broker a government again?
The German presidency is largely ceremonial, but when the parties are having trouble forming a government the president springs into action as a mediator. Frank-Walter Steinmeier did this after Merkel struggled to form a coalition following the 2017 election. Should the government break down in late 2019, the pragmatic SPD man and former German foreign minister would be called on again.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Matthews
Jörg Urban: Can the AfD win outright in Saxony?
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party heads into 2019 with some of the wind taken out of its sails after the anti-immigration populists were overtaken by the Greens in popularity. The Saxony regional election on September 1 represents the best chance for the AfD to regain lost momentum, and the party hopes regional chairman Jörg Urban can lead them to an outright victory.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/S. Kahnert
Manfred Weber: Moderate conservative to lead the EU?
Manfred Weber is not only leader of the conservative European People's Party (EPP) bloc in the European Parliament; he's also the EPP's candidate for the European Commission presidency in the European election in late May, making him the favorite to replace Jean-Claude Juncker. A smooth political operator, Weber would be the first German to hold Europe's highest political office since 1967.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M. Balk
Paul Ziemiak: Will a Polish-born youngster drag the CDU to the right?
He's 33, staunchly conservative, social-media savvy, Polish-born and the new operational head of Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union. His election as CDU general secretary reflects both the party's diversity and its desire to freshen up and have a counterweight to the centrists Merkel and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. But will he fall afoul of his two female bosses?
