The SPD has presented a 100-page list of reasons for the party's crushing election loss last year. After taking only 20.5 percent of the vote, the party is trying to come back, but has it identified the real problems?
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The report, entitled "Learning from Mistakes," is 105 pages long, covering everything from the timing of Martin Schulz's nomination as chancellor candidate to organizational deficiencies within the party headquarters itself.
Barely a fifth of voters cast their ballots for the SPD last September, a humiliating result for Germany's oldest political party, which still fancies itself the main rival to Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives. Not surprisingly, the report – commissioned by the party and written by a team of veteran journalists – doesn't make for happy reading.
After an initial euphoria that saw him briefly top Merkel in opinion polls in early 2017, Schulz's popularity plummeted. That was in part because of his campaign strategy.
The SPD's year of turmoil
From neck-and-neck with Merkel's CDU to worst post-war performance, the SPD has witnessed its support nosedive. As members vote on whether to join a Merkel-led government, Germany's oldest party stands at a crossroads.
Image: Getty Images/M. Hitij
January 2017: 'Schulz effect' sees the SPD flying in the polls
The SPD appeared to have struck gold when it nominated Martin Schulz, the former president of the European Parliament, to challenge Angela Merkel for chancellor in the 2017 elections. In what came to be dubbed as the "Schulz effect," the SPD's shake-up at the top saw the party surge in the opinion polls to up to 33 percent, neck-and-neck with Merkel's conservatives.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/K. Nietfeld
May 2017: SPD loses two state elections in a week. First Schleswig-Holstein ...
By May, however, the Schulz effect had faded. If the SPD wanted to prove it was a serious contender for September's federal election, it needed to retain its place at the helm of two key state governments. The first state election in Schleswig-Holstein, however, saw the CDU record an "easy" victory, winning by five points. The CDU went on to form a coalition with the Greens and Free Democrats.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/B. Marks
... Then its NRW stronghold
Things went from bad to worse a week later, when Merkel's party defeated the SPD in their stronghold in North Rhine-Westphalia. The SPD had ruled NRW for 46 of the past 51 years. However, it only picked up 31 percent of the vote this time, seven points lower than in 2012. Schulz described the defeat as "crushing," while outgoing state premier Hannelore Kraft resigned as state SPD party chief.
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September 2017: Lackluster election debate
Come September, with the federal election just weeks away, some pundits still gave Schulz half a chance of clinching the chancellery. However, the televised election debate between the two candidates exposed the effects of a grand coaltion. The two leaders seemed happy to agree with the other's proposals, rather than have a debate. And yet viewers still saw Merkel as the more credible candidate.
Image: Reuters/F. Bensch
September 2017: Germany decides — SPD suffers worst result in post-war era
In its worst election showing since World War II, the SPD scraped just over 20 percent of the vote. It would claim just 40 seats in the Bundestag, 40 fewer than before. Schulz, however, vowed to stay on and lead the party in opposition. The move was widely welcomed by the party's rank and file. It was time for a much-needed recharge and reappraisal.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/R. Weihrauch
December 2017: GroKo after all
After talks to form a coalition with the Greens and FDP collapsed in November, Merkel had no choice but to turn to Schulz to form a governing coalition. After much "umming" and "ahing," the SPD leadership decided to enter preliminary talks with the conservatives. Well aware that the move would be unpopular with many in the party, Schulz said the party's 460,000 would get the final say.
Image: picture alliance/Photoshot/S. Yuqi
January 2018: SPD balks at grand coalition blueprint
However, no sooner had Schulz agreed on a preliminary deal then senior figures in SPD demanded an extensive overhaul. Schulz's failure to prevent a migration cap, establish a "citizens' insurance" scheme and abolish fixed employee contracts raised serious doubts whether party officials would agree to proceed to formal talks.
Image: Reuters/H. Hanschke
January 2018: The start of a revolt?
Ahead of a party conference that would see SPD members vote on the preliminary coalition plan, the movement against another grand coalition began to gather heavy steam. The face of this grassroots revolt was SPD youth wing head Kevin Kühnert. In a series of impassioned speeches, the 28-year-old didn't just win the backing of youngsters, but convinced several senior figures as well.
Image: Imago/R. Zensen
January 2018: Delegates approve preliminary coalition deal
Despite the heavy backlash, SPD delegates still approved the coalition deal. Of the votes, 362 were in favor of talks compared with 279 against. In a bid to shore up support, then-party leader Schulz said there would be "tough negotiations" with Merkel's conservatives. But that didn't stop critics from accusing Schulz of making concessions to Merkel.
Image: Reuters/W. Rattay
February 2018: SPD takes finance ministry
After the announcement of a coalition agreement, media reports claimed that the finance ministry had been given to the SPD, marking what some consider a major victory for the center-left party. The SPD's Olaf Scholz, the popular mayor of Hamburg, was reportedly tapped to head the ministry. If it proves true, it will be the first time in almost nine years that the SPD controls it.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Charisius
February 2018: Spat with Gabriel
In early February, tensions inside the SPD reached a fever-pitch. Gabriel told German media that Schulz didn't appreciate the job he had done as foreign minister. Days before, Schulz had signaled his desire to lead the foreign ministry. "The only thing left is remorse over how disrespectful we've become with one another in our dealings and how little someone's word still country," Gabriel said.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/B.v.Jutrczenka
February 2018: Schulz out, Nahles to take over?
Former Labor Minister Andrea Nahles is a strong contender to head the center-left party. She made a name for herself as the leader of the SPD's youth branch. However, her impassioned defense of joining a Merkel-led coalition in January was seen as the key to clinching a majority to move forward on formal talks. But she'll have to wait until April 22, when the SPD will choose its next leader.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/O. Berg
February 2018: Plummeting poll numbers
If anything, the decision to pursue a Merkel-lead coalition has further dragged support for the party. A poll published in February showed the party at 16 percent if elections were held on February 18, a 2-percent drop from the previous poll a month before. Polls now show the SPD neck-and-neck with the far-right AFD.
Image: picture-alliance/Zuma Press/O. Messinger
February 2018: Members vote
SPD members – all 463,723 of them – will now vote on whether the party can join a coalition with the CDU and CSU. The members have until March 2 to submit their ballots with results expected shortly after the due date. Until then, Germany waits on the prospect of a new government.
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"In terms of policy, Schulz was supposed to remain fuzzy until summer so as not to present opponents and the media with points of attack and in order to give him time to plug his own policy gaps," the report reads. "He was to avoid controversial topics like pensions and taxes until just before the party summer conference, when the platform was agreed."
Schulz and the SPD also made the mistake of indicating a willingness to partner with the controversial Left Party, successor to the socialist party in Communist East Germany, in a regional election in the western state of Saarland in March 2017. Voters there decisively rejected that option, setting in motion a continuous slide ending with national defeat on September 24.
'No strategic basis'
It's easy to blame Schulz's failings as a lead candidate for that debacle, but the report identifies longer-term reasons for the SPD's decline – the party also lost the previous two national German elections to Merkel by wide margins.
The Social Democrats, the reports authors conclude, have been caught between traditional left-wing issues like increasing social equity and their centrist willingness to work together with Merkel's conservatives in government. The party has consistently failed to develop and nurture its central issues in the long haul.
"The 2017 election wasn't lost in 2017, but rather in 2015," the report asserts. "The six weeks before election day, which are accompanied by posters, commercials and other advertising, is the end of the campaign and not the beginning. No advertising in the world can rescue in these final six weeks a campaign that has been stumbling toward the end. The 2017 campaign had no strategic basis. It had no compass. Decisions were made on the spur of the moment."
That was one of the main lessons to be learned from Schulz's defeat, said SPD General Secretary Lars Klingbeil when presenting the report in Berlin on Monday.
"We want to get away from the short-term changes of strategy we've had far too many of in recent years – that was the wrong path," Klingbeil said. "Instead we want to pursue our principles in the long term and not be pushed off course."
A blown chance at the chancellorship?
Schulz made social equity the cornerstone of his campaign but failed to convince voters that it was anything more than an abstract slogan. Nonetheless, the report holds out hope that, at least in terms of policy, the SPD was actually on the right track. The report even says that Schulz had a chance to topple Merkel, whose conservatives also dramatically lost support even as they took the most votes.
"In the early phase Martin Schulz was able to address and invigorate a dormant SPD potential in society," the authors wrote. "The SPD could have achieved something in the election – perhaps under the right circumstances even the chancellorship."
It's that potential the SPD aims to revive by advocating its core cause more steadfastly and specifically.
"The issue of distribution of wealth and social equity is the most central one for the SPD, but it needs to worked through and transformed into intelligent and well thought-out ideas," Klingbeil said. "It has to be made truly concrete."
One unanswered question, however, is how the SPD can offer concrete proposals that would redistribute wealth in Germany while continuing to function as a partner with Merkel's conservatives in a centrist government. It is not for nothing that participation in so-called grand coalitions has been perceived as a main party Achilles heel. And it's not the only one Social Democrats must overcome.
Lack of appeal to young voters
Perhaps the SPD's biggest challenge is demographic and generational. The Social Democrats, like Merkel's conservatives, are running the risk of becoming a party of old people.
"The most glaring weaknesses are with people in the middle of life, university-educated and employed people between the ages of 30 and 44," the report found. "Both the party and the candidate lacked forward-oriented expertise and a modern aura. One indicator of modernity and social vision is success among young voters, but the party hasn't had any for more than ten years."
Klingbeil says that the SPD is taking steps to address its youth problem. One step, he says, is that the popular leader of the SPD youth wing, Kevin Kühnert, who led an unsuccessful but widely respected campaign against the latest grand coalition, will be given a major say in the party's new direction.
It is unclear whether that and the other changes Social Democrats hope to enact will be enough. New party chairwoman Andrea Nahles is part of the old guard, remains unpopular with much of the rank-and-file and must show that she can inspire a turnaround.
The SPD has slipped all the way down to sixteen percent in some opinion polls. Klingbeil stresses the renewal project will take time, but Social Democrats will be expected to show some signs of life in regional elections in the states of Hessen and Bavaria this October. It is one thing to identify problems. Correcting them, as the SPD knows, is a far more difficult endeavor.