SPD still in doldrums after Nahles' first 100 days
Jefferson Chase (Berlin)
July 31, 2018
The SPD's first-ever female chairperson is drawing better-than-expected reviews after her first few months in charge. But unfortunately for her, she hasn't been able to shift the Social Democrats' dismal poll numbers.
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Andrea Nahles is spending her 100th day as the head of Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD) on the campaign stump in Bavaria ahead of regional elections there this October. It's hardly a glamorous gig: a meeting with a mayor in the town of Dietfurt (population 6,100) and then an appointment with regional SPD candidates at a brewery.
But it's the sort of legwork Nahles will need to stop the rot in the SPD. While never much of a force in traditionally conservative Bavaria, Social Democrats have slipped as low as 12 percent in polls and risk being overtaken by the Greens on the left and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party on the far right.
If it's any consolation for the chairwoman, who was elected to the top job by a meager two-thirds majority at a party conference in late April, she's at least drawing words of praise for her leadership from former internal SPD critics.
"She's keeping the shop together and showing leadership," Johannes Kahrs, a prominent SPD centrist, told a consortium of German newspapers. "I'm not a member of the Nahles' fan club, but to be honest, she's done a great job."
"Andrea Nahles has worked insanely hard," concurred Kevin Kühnert, the SPD youth leader who led a rebellion against continuing the grand coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel — a move Nahles supported in a fiery convention speech that increased her profile at home and abroad. "She devotes an incredible amount of time to personal conversations and will call you up early in the morning and late at night."
This sort of praise must be particularly welcome to the 48-year-old political veteran. Nahles was initially greeted with skepticism from many rank-and-file SPD members who would have preferred to see a radical change of the guard.
'What counts isn't the polls'
Nahles inherited a party reeling from its historical poor showing, 20.5 percent of the vote, in the 2017 national election. But there's been no turnaround. On the contrary, current national polls consistently put the SPD at only 18 percent.
28-year-old Maximilian Janetzki, the chairman of the local SPD chapter in eastern Oberhausen and the co-author of a "self-diagnosis" of the party's current problems, says that it's too early to judge the party's national chairwoman. The challenge for Nahles, he adds, is to help reinvent the SPD while ensuring that it continues to function in a coalition with Merkel's conservatives.
"I think Andrea Nahles knows that what counts isn't the polls taken between elections," Janetzki told Deutsche Welle. "But she has to make sure that the SPD also shows what it can do during this government. It's in her own interest to take back control over the discussion."
Part of Nahles' task, Janetzki adds, is to translate "the language of government into the language of the SPD" and win back traditional Social Democratic voters turned off by social-benefits cuts under Social Democratic former chancellor Gerhard Schröder from 1998 to 2005 and the party's centrist course in three grand coalitions since then.
Returning to traditional areas of strengths was one of the main recommendations of a more than 100-page self-critical analysis commissioned by the party leadership after the 2017 election debacle. But effectively selling voters on such a realignment may be easier said than done.
No credit where credit is due?
The great irony in the SPD's current malaise is that the issues Germans say matter most to them are social and traditionally Social Democratic ones such as old-age poverty, educational equality and affordable rents. Janetzki hopes that Nahles can turn the discussion back toward those topics and away from the headline-grabbing issue of migrants and asylum policy.
"The SPD and Andrea Nahles have to ensure that we get out of the refugee discussion and focus on increased costs of living, poorly paid jobs and social inequalities in our country," Janetzki said.
Germany's major political parties — What you need to know
There are seven political parties in the German Bundestag and they rarely agree on anything. DW takes a look at their ideologies, leadership and history.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Schmidt
Christian Democratic Union (CDU)
The CDU has traditionally been the main center-right party across Germany, but it shifted toward the center under Chancellor Angela Merkel. The party remains more fiscally and socially conservative compared to parties on the left. It supports membership of the EU and NATO, budgetary discipline at home and abroad and generally likes the status quo. It is the largest party in the Bundestag.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Schmidt
Christian Social Union (CSU)
The CSU is the sister party of the CDU in Bavaria and the two act symbiotically at the national level (CDU/CSU). Despite their similarities, the CSU is generally more conservative than the CDU on social issues. The CSU leader and premier of Bavaria, Markus Söder, ordered crosses in every state building in 2018.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/S. Schuldt
Social Democrats (SPD)
The SPD is Germany's oldest political party and the main center-left rival of the CDU/CSU. It shares the CDU/CSU support for the EU and NATO, but it takes a more progressive stance on social issues and welfare policies. It is currently in a coalition government with the CDU/CSU and is trying to win back support under interim leaders Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel, Manuela Schwesig and Malu Dreyer.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/W. Kumm
Alternative for Germany (AfD)
The new kid on the block is the largest opposition party in the Bundestag. The far-right party was founded in 2013 and entered the Bundestag for the first time in 2017 under the stewardship of Alice Weidel and Alexander Gauland. It is largely united by opposition to Merkel's immigration policy, euroscepticism, and belief in the alleged dangers posed by Germany's Muslim population.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/U. Deck
Free Democrats (FDP)
The FDP has traditionally been the kingmaker of German politics. Although it has never received more than 15 percent of the vote, it has formed multiple coalition governments with both the CDU/CSU and SPD. The FDP, today led by Christian Lindner, supports less government spending and lower taxes, but takes a progressive stance on social issues such as gay marriage or religion.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/W. Kumm
The Greens
The Greens, led today by Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck, emerged from the environmental movement in the 1980s. Unsuprisingly, it supports efforts to fight climate change and protect the environment. It is also progressive on social issues. But strong divisions have occasionally emerged on other topics. The party famously split in the late 1990s over whether to use military force in Kosovo.
Image: picture-alliance/Eventpress Rekdal
The Left
The Left, led by Katja Kipping and Bernd Riexinger, is the most left-wing party in the Bundestag. It supports major redistribution of wealth at home and a pacifist stance abroad, including withdrawing Germany from NATO. It emerged from the successor party to the Socialist Unity Party (SED) that ruled communist East Germany until 1989. Today, it still enjoys most of its support in eastern Germany.
But the SPD's pragmatism did not yield a bump in the polls. Instead, Social Democrats have been criticized for agreeing to reclassify the Maghreb states as safe countries of return for failed asylum applicants. The Greens, who reject the reclassification, have seen their popularity rise, putting Nahles on the defensive.
"Imitating the Greens won't get us anywhere," Nahles told the Münchner Merkur newspaper over the weekend in response to the criticism.
But the constellation illustrates Nahles' dilemma. Whereas voters identify the Green Party with core issues like environmentalism and multiculturalism, Social Democrats have to reestablish their credentials on their traditional strong points — and find new pools of voters interested in them.
Renewal without new faces
Numbers are not the Social Democrats' friends right now. Since agreeing to the current grand coalition, the SPD has lost almost 14,000 party members. The average age of a card-carrying Social Democrat is 60, and as the party's election post mortem noted, the SPD has dramatic problems appealing to younger voters.
Janetzki says the way forward is not just putting forward younger candidates or reforming the 155-year-old party's often byzantine structures, but stressing the SPD's commitment to social equity. He's cautiously optimistic that Nahles has made a good start in this direction. "That makes me hope that we'll have more success in future," Janetzki says.
But others disagree. Simone Lange — the mayor of the northern German city of Flensburg, who challenged Nahles for the party leadership back in April — says that not enough is being done.
"The SPD is squandering chances," Lange told the dpa news agency. "I can't see that anything has fundamentally changed in our structures." She added that "many people associate renewal with new faces" — a none-too-subtle jibe at Nahles.
The SPD chairwoman may be glad that her working day on Tuesday ends with a brewery visit. Given the enormity of the challenges she faces, she'd be forgiven for downing a cold one or two.
The SPD's year of turmoil
From neck-and-neck with Merkel's CDU to worst post-war performance, the SPD has witnessed its support nosedive. As members vote on whether to join a Merkel-led government, Germany's oldest party stands at a crossroads.
Image: Getty Images/M. Hitij
January 2017: 'Schulz effect' sees the SPD flying in the polls
The SPD appeared to have struck gold when it nominated Martin Schulz, the former president of the European Parliament, to challenge Angela Merkel for chancellor in the 2017 elections. In what came to be dubbed as the "Schulz effect," the SPD's shake-up at the top saw the party surge in the opinion polls to up to 33 percent, neck-and-neck with Merkel's conservatives.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/K. Nietfeld
May 2017: SPD loses two state elections in a week. First Schleswig-Holstein ...
By May, however, the Schulz effect had faded. If the SPD wanted to prove it was a serious contender for September's federal election, it needed to retain its place at the helm of two key state governments. The first state election in Schleswig-Holstein, however, saw the CDU record an "easy" victory, winning by five points. The CDU went on to form a coalition with the Greens and Free Democrats.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/B. Marks
... Then its NRW stronghold
Things went from bad to worse a week later, when Merkel's party defeated the SPD in their stronghold in North Rhine-Westphalia. The SPD had ruled NRW for 46 of the past 51 years. However, it only picked up 31 percent of the vote this time, seven points lower than in 2012. Schulz described the defeat as "crushing," while outgoing state premier Hannelore Kraft resigned as state SPD party chief.
Image: Imago/DeFodi
September 2017: Lackluster election debate
Come September, with the federal election just weeks away, some pundits still gave Schulz half a chance of clinching the chancellery. However, the televised election debate between the two candidates exposed the effects of a grand coaltion. The two leaders seemed happy to agree with the other's proposals, rather than have a debate. And yet viewers still saw Merkel as the more credible candidate.
Image: Reuters/F. Bensch
September 2017: Germany decides — SPD suffers worst result in post-war era
In its worst election showing since World War II, the SPD scraped just over 20 percent of the vote. It would claim just 40 seats in the Bundestag, 40 fewer than before. Schulz, however, vowed to stay on and lead the party in opposition. The move was widely welcomed by the party's rank and file. It was time for a much-needed recharge and reappraisal.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/R. Weihrauch
December 2017: GroKo after all
After talks to form a coalition with the Greens and FDP collapsed in November, Merkel had no choice but to turn to Schulz to form a governing coalition. After much "umming" and "ahing," the SPD leadership decided to enter preliminary talks with the conservatives. Well aware that the move would be unpopular with many in the party, Schulz said the party's 460,000 would get the final say.
Image: picture alliance/Photoshot/S. Yuqi
January 2018: SPD balks at grand coalition blueprint
However, no sooner had Schulz agreed on a preliminary deal then senior figures in SPD demanded an extensive overhaul. Schulz's failure to prevent a migration cap, establish a "citizens' insurance" scheme and abolish fixed employee contracts raised serious doubts whether party officials would agree to proceed to formal talks.
Image: Reuters/H. Hanschke
January 2018: The start of a revolt?
Ahead of a party conference that would see SPD members vote on the preliminary coalition plan, the movement against another grand coalition began to gather heavy steam. The face of this grassroots revolt was SPD youth wing head Kevin Kühnert. In a series of impassioned speeches, the 28-year-old didn't just win the backing of youngsters, but convinced several senior figures as well.
Image: Imago/R. Zensen
January 2018: Delegates approve preliminary coalition deal
Despite the heavy backlash, SPD delegates still approved the coalition deal. Of the votes, 362 were in favor of talks compared with 279 against. In a bid to shore up support, then-party leader Schulz said there would be "tough negotiations" with Merkel's conservatives. But that didn't stop critics from accusing Schulz of making concessions to Merkel.
Image: Reuters/W. Rattay
February 2018: SPD takes finance ministry
After the announcement of a coalition agreement, media reports claimed that the finance ministry had been given to the SPD, marking what some consider a major victory for the center-left party. The SPD's Olaf Scholz, the popular mayor of Hamburg, was reportedly tapped to head the ministry. If it proves true, it will be the first time in almost nine years that the SPD controls it.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Charisius
February 2018: Spat with Gabriel
In early February, tensions inside the SPD reached a fever-pitch. Gabriel told German media that Schulz didn't appreciate the job he had done as foreign minister. Days before, Schulz had signaled his desire to lead the foreign ministry. "The only thing left is remorse over how disrespectful we've become with one another in our dealings and how little someone's word still country," Gabriel said.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/B.v.Jutrczenka
February 2018: Schulz out, Nahles to take over?
Former Labor Minister Andrea Nahles is a strong contender to head the center-left party. She made a name for herself as the leader of the SPD's youth branch. However, her impassioned defense of joining a Merkel-led coalition in January was seen as the key to clinching a majority to move forward on formal talks. But she'll have to wait until April 22, when the SPD will choose its next leader.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/O. Berg
February 2018: Plummeting poll numbers
If anything, the decision to pursue a Merkel-lead coalition has further dragged support for the party. A poll published in February showed the party at 16 percent if elections were held on February 18, a 2-percent drop from the previous poll a month before. Polls now show the SPD neck-and-neck with the far-right AFD.
Image: picture-alliance/Zuma Press/O. Messinger
February 2018: Members vote
SPD members – all 463,723 of them – will now vote on whether the party can join a coalition with the CDU and CSU. The members have until March 2 to submit their ballots with results expected shortly after the due date. Until then, Germany waits on the prospect of a new government.