Is the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI) submarine power cable project dead in the water?

The GSI project, which is worth €2 billion ($2.36 billion), seeks to build a subsea electric cable connecting Greece and Cyprus and later Israel.

The aim is to integrate the Republic of Cyprus into the European electricity transmission system and bolster the energy security of EU member states Greece and Cyprus.

But although the project was launched in October 2022 with the aim of completing it by the end of 2023, it is currently not clear whether it will ever actually come to fruition.

Project faces multiple challenges

There are several reasons for the current uncertainty. Not only is the GSI an expensive project, it is also technically difficult and faces massive geopolitical challenges. What's more, the European Public Prosecutor's Office has launched an investigation into possible criminal offences relating to the project.

The current situation is in stark contrast to the launch of the project in October 2022 when everything seemed so promising. Back then, representatives of Greece, Cyprus and Israel came together for a ceremony to launch the project to lay a 1,208-kilometer-long (760 miles) power cable across the Mediterranean along the sea bed between the three countries.

At a depth of over 2 kilometers, it was to be one of the deepest and longest submarine power cables anywhere in the world.

In addition to integrating Cyprus into the European electricity transmission system, the project sought to link energy markets in the EU and Asia.

The EU has pledged to provide some €650 million of the €2 billion required for the project. 

Tension between countries in the region

A brief look at the map is enough to understand how difficult it is to navigate the tricky situation in the eastern Mediterranean.

Syria and Libya are both unstable countries. Israel is conducting a prolonged war in the Gaza Strip and separate military operations in both Lebanon and Syria. While Turkey seeks to improve its relations with Egypt, relations between Turkey and Israel are at a low.

There is also considerable tension between Greece and Turkey, both members of NATO. Cyprus is a divided island, with the northern part occupied by Turkey.

All this means that it is very difficult to secure the consensus required to implement major international projects in the eastern Mediterranean.

Unclear maritime borders

Furthermore, the maritime borders in this region are not always clearly defined, nor are countries' exclusive economic zones.

Greece does not have an agreement concerning the delimitation of maritime zones with Turkey and Libya.

Cyprus doesn't have an agreement with Turkey either. Indeed, Turkey doesn't even recognize the Republic of Cyprus as a state.

Turkey and Libya signed a treaty in 2019 that ignores the existence of Crete and the Dodecanese islands. This treaty is considered "illegal" by Greece and is not recognized by the EU either.

Egypt has had a partial agreement with Greece since 2020, which overlaps with some of the area covered by the Turkish-Libyan treaty.

Turkey wants a say

All of this has an impact on the bathymetric surveys that have to be carried out before the GSI subsea cable can be laid.

The first stage of the project is to connect Crete and Cyprus. In May, the Greek island of Crete was connected to the Greek mainland grid by a subsea cable. The connection with Israel is due to be added later.

Last summer, Turkey dispatched warships to prevent surveys being carried out in the waters around the Greek island of Kasos. Ankara was of the opinion that it should be consulted on the matter.

Greece rejects this and has said that according to international law, Turkey is not required to give its approval for the power cable project to go ahead, because there are no plans to drill on the seabed, just to lay a cable on it.

But Ankara is insistent that nothing can happen in this area without its consent. So far, this tactic has had the desired effect: There has been no progress on the surveys since the summer of 2024.

Reservations in Cyprus

However, Ankara's objections have not been the only cause of the major delays in the implementation of the GSI project. The government in Nicosia has also unexpectedly voiced reservations.

Cyprus recently said that it considers the project to be too expensive and unprofitable.

Cypriot Finance Minister Makis Keravnos said in an interview with the newspaper Kathimerini Cyprus on September 2 that he has "two studies by independent, reputable organizations that come to the conclusion that this project is not viable under the current circumstances." Keravnos also called into question the Cypriot contribution to the financing of the project. 

His comments caught the Greek government in Athens completely off guard.

Greece's Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis, who has repeatedly emphasized that the "project will be implemented," initially tried to ignore what the press called the Cypriot "bomb."

He then went on the offensive, accusing Nicosia of having certain unspecified "economic interests."

Gerapetritis claimed that the Cypriot government was opposed to the energy link between Cyprus and Greece so as to protect its dominant position on the Cypriot energy market.

Mitsotakis still backs the project

Speaking at his annual press conference at the Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF) recently, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said that a concrete commitment from Cyprus would be needed to take the project forward.

Mitsotakis described the GSI as a very important energy project that will above all benefit Cyprus and would help end the country's energy isolation.

He went on to say that the European Union has recognized the strategic significance of the project and approved generous financial support of over €650 million to ensure that Cyprus is connected to the European electricity system. 

No concrete commitment from Nicosia was forthcoming. It was announced that Nikos Christodoulides, the president of Cyprus, was in agreement with Mitsotakis about the necessity of implementing the project, which, he said, is also of European interest.

Nevertheless, the president gave no firm pledge that Cyprus would pay the requisite €25 million a year to ADMIE (or IPTO), the company tasked with delivering the project. 

Investigation into possible criminal offences

In short, the future of the project is up in the air, not only because of the threats from Ankara and the objections from Nicosia, but also because of an investigation by the European Public Prosecutor's Office (EPPO).

As President Christodoulides announced on September 3, European Chief Prosecutor Laura Codruta Kovesi has opened an investigation into possible criminal offences in relation to the GSI project.

The EPPO is initially focusing on the period before the project was sold to the Greek power grid operator ADMIE by the Cypriot private company EuroAsia Interconnector.

This company, which launched the project, did not have the necessary expertise but was supported and financed by the Republic of Cyprus and the European Commission.

Just a few months after joining the project, the EU's Directorate-General for Energy pushed for the removal of EuroAsia Interconnector from the project because the company was unable to secure the requisite loans.

It was at this point that Greek operator ADMIE came on board, buying the project from EuroAsia Interconnector in 2023 for about €48 million.

The EU investigators are focusing on at least one high-ranking political figure, members of his or her family, a civil servant at the European Commission and several Cypriot civil servants. 

This article was originally published in German.