A survey conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in November this year found that support for EU enlargement is growing in the bloc.

It shows that public support has increased in almost all member states since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 but is largest in Lithuania (77%), Spain (74%), and Croatia (71%).

A large majority of citizens in Latvia, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Ireland, Portugal and Sweden also favor the idea of taking in new member states. Thus, more people in 24 out of the EU's 27 welcome the idea of the bloc growing in size than oppose it.

The survey also found that "leaders of countries that in the past showed little enthusiasm for enlargement have completely changed their tone," including French President Emmanuel Macron, for example.

While he blocked the opening of accession talks with Albania and North Macedonia at an EU summit in Brussels in 2019, he seems to have changed his approach this year. Speaking at a security summit in the Slovakian capital Bratislava in May, he said "the question is not whether we should enlarge […] but rather how we should do it."

Solidarity with Ukraine

The survey showed that support for Ukraine's accession to the EU is highest in Denmark (50%) and Poland (47%). Public opinion is more divided in Romania (32% in favor, 29% against), Germany (37% in favor, 39% against), and France (29% in favor, 35% against). In Austria, only 28% of respondents said they favored Ukraine's accesssion. 

The study found broad opposition to Turkey's potentially joining the EU. Nor was the prospect of Albania, Bosnia, Georgia, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia joining the bloc particular popular.

"Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has thrust EU expansion back on to the agenda," wrote Paul Taylor, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based Friends of Europe think tank, in a recent opinion piece for the British daily The Guardian. "European Union leaders are coming around to the geopolitical necessity of embracing Ukraine, Moldova and western Balkan countries as future EU members, but will struggle to reform the bloc to make it fit for enlargement," he added.

In reaction to Russia's war of aggression, the EU granted candidate status to Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova in June 2022. A course had already been charted for the Western Balkan countries of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia to join the bloc at an EU summit that took place in the Greek city of Thessaloniki in 2003..

This year, the European Commission proposed launching accession talks with Ukraine, Moldova, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Georgia is supposed to be granted candidate status as "soon as a necessary level of agreement is reached."

Who would benefit from enlargement?

Despite the general acceptance across the EU for enlargement, certain reservations remain. According to the ECFR survey, 45% of respondents feared Ukraine's accession could have a negative impact on the EU's security. Only 25% thought it would be bolstered as a result.

There are also concerns that Ukraine's accession to the EU could have a negative economic impact, particularly in Hungary and Poland, which border Ukraine. Many farmers worry about competition from Ukraine, which is a major exporter of agricultural products. .

Kai-Olaf Lang, an analyst with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), told German daily Die Welt he thought that Ukraine's accession to the EU would be preceded by a long transition period, and that certain conditions and exceptions might be imposed. He suggested that it might be a gradual process of integration.

"We must not forget that Ukraine is a large country with a large agricultural sector, which would attract a very large share of the EU's budget for agriculture and structural," he said.

Concerns over growing costs

Many EU member states see no immediate economic advantage in Ukraine joining the bloc. In fact, the ECFR survey found that 54% of Danish repondents and 46% of those surveyed in Austria expected Ukrainian membership would drive up costs.

The report concludes that despite "the geopolitical arguments in favor of enlargement, which are stronger today than 20 years ago, the process is likely to face more obstacles than it did then."

It also says "that in most member states, the interest in enlargement is outweighed by concerns about the transformation that institutional reforms could bring about."

Paul Taylor from Friends of Europe concurs, writing that "without radical internal changes, such as getting rid of national veto powers over foreign, sanctions and taxation policy, the EU may not be able to agree unanimously to admit new members, nor to function effectively once they do join."

This article was translated from German