According to opinion polls, a majority of the population is in favour of Germany pulling the Bundeswehr out of the country; on the other hand, there have been unconfirmed reports that the new government will ask parliament quite soon to have send even more foreign troops sent to Afghanistan. Germany security experts are also involved in a heated debate as to whether defeat in Afghanistan can be averted.

They only agree on one thing: There is a real danger that the West will fail. Jan Techau, a security expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, agrees with the American ISAF Commander Stanley McChrystal that the West can be defeated in Afghanistan.

Techau says, "at least one has to admit that failure is a realistic possibility. The situation has become more and more difficult over the past year and a half. Security has worsened and the Taliban have taken the initiative once more. They have regained their strength and their ability to strike back quickly all over the country."

Seizing the initiative

That is why the West won't be able to get the upper hand in the short run without a massive surge in troop strength, Techau warns: "It is absolutely necessary that international troops and the Afghan government seize the initiative again. They must determine where things are moving and not just react -- like now, when they are only trying to limit the damage. And initially this will only work if we have more military forces on the ground."

After that the number of people involved in rebuilding the country should also be boosted, Techau adds, because military success would be meaningless unless accompanied by civil reconstruction projects.

But even if more troops and reconstruction workers were available for Afghanistan, what should be the aim? Political scientist Herfried Münkler argues that the West needs to have more realistic goals for Afghanistan: "Certainly all those ideas of wide-ranging democratization and implementation of human rights right up to securing of school education for girls and things like that were very ambitious. I strongly doubt that this can be achieved. So we'll have to tone down our expectations and remain content with Afghanistan being more or less pacified."

Lessons from history

Others say troop withdrawal is inevitable. Matin Baraki, an Afghan political scientist at Marburg University, recalls other powers and their defeats in Afghanistan: "In the 19th century the British completely occupied Afghanistan twice. But the Afghans fought against them almost empty-handedly and drove them out of their country. The Soviet Union tried to win militarily after 1980 and wasn't successful despite deploying more than 100,000 soldiers!"

Baraki thinks resistance in Afghanistan can only be reduced by improving the material conditions of the population: "In the south and the east of the country up to 70 percent of the population are unemployed. If one were to give bread and jobs to these people, the resistance would be weakened and it would pave the way for reconstruction and peace in Afghanistan!"

But before, Baraki argues, NATO troops would have to be withdrawn and replaced by a contingent of the Organisation of Islamic Conference or OIC countries, or of non-aligned countries. Jan Techau, on the other hand, says even discussing a troop withdrawal is counterproductive, as it is an invitation to the Taliban to simply play for time.

Author: Daniel Scheschkewitz / Thomas Bärthlein
Editor: Grahame Lucas