With the most important election of Hong Kong just around the corner, candidates vying for the most challenging job on the semi-autonomous island are biting their nails. As Beijing’s wish contradicts the will of Hong Kong citizens, the result of this much-anticipated race is unpredictable.

Elections for the office of Chief Executive of Hong Kong are held every five years. The successor of the incumbent bowtie-wearing Chief Executive Donald Tsang will be decided on March 25 by a 1,200-member Election Committee.

The electoral college, according to Hong Kong pundit Ivan Choy, is made up mainly of the following categories: the industrial, commercial and financial sectors; labor, social services and religious sectors; and the political sector. "Certainly in this combination, pro-Beijing elites or those from the industrial, commercial and financial sectors dominate the entire committee," Choy told Deutsche Welle.

Among the 1,200 committee members, Choy estimates that there are approximately 200 democrats. "So we can speculate that candidates trusted by Beijing or having a business background will have an advantage, "he added.

Who's running the race?

China-backed candidate Henry Tang, a wealthy tycoon and former senior government official, would have been "sure to win," had things gone smoothly for him. Unfortunately, he has been embroiled in a sea of scandals, which started last year, when he admitted openly to cheating on his wife. More recently, news of his "forbidden palace" - an illegal construction of a 2,250-square-foot basement with a wine cellar, spa, gym and spacious rooms came to light. Under pressure of the media, Tang made a public apology, saying the construction was his wife’s idea. This irritated Hong Kong citizens even more, who believed Tang had passed the buck to his wife.

The scandals have put Tang’s credibility in question, says Joseph Cheng, a professor of political science with the City University of Hong Kong. "It’s difficult for the public in Hong Kong to trust him anymore. He doesn’t know how to cope with problems. How can he be our leader?"

Despite growing calls for Tang to quit the race, he submitted his application on Monday with 387 nominations. Tang’s main rival Leung Chun-ying, the former Executive Council Convenor and former government advisor, formally signed up to run for the office of Chief Executive three days after Tang, with 293 nominations. Leung was the third candidate to submit his nominations. The first was Democratic Party chairman Albert Ho. New People’s Party chairwoman Regina Ip is trying to secure 150 nominations, which is the minimum requirement to enter the race.

The latest poll indicates that among the three enrolled candidates Leung has the widest support, whereas Tang has the least, which is bad news for Beijing.

The deadline of application for the top job is on February 29; that leaves Beijing little time to send another candidate to the race.

Direct elections

Cheng argues the whole election process is manipulated by the Chinese central government, as semi-autonomous Hong Kong only has a limited democracy; The island, while having one of the world’s most liberal economic systems, does not grant universal suffrage to its citizens.

Every year on July 1, the anniversary of British sovereign handover to China, protesters take to the streets demanding universal suffrage for chief executive and Legislative Council elections. In 2007 Chief Executive Donald Tsang requested Beijing to allow direct elections for the leader of Hong Kong by 2012. Later, Tsang announced that the National People’s Congress planned to allow direct elections in the 2017 chief executive elections.

Choy was not optimistic about the promise of direct elections. "Yes, the Hong Kong government has promised universal suffrage in 2017 but whether or not this will happen, we have no idea yet."

As the promise is not written in black and white, Choy said, "it’ll depend on the new chief executive who will need to work something out with Beijing and the Hong Kong Legislative Council."

For now, the political outlook of the prosperous financial hub is up in the air. Choy said Hong Kong would just have to wait and see in which direction its new leader takes it.

Author: Miriam Wong
Editor: Sarah Berning