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ConflictsChina

How does US-Iran war impact China's aspirations for Taiwan?

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Anthony Howard
July 1, 2026

Would China now think twice about invading Taiwan, having seen the economic and reputational cost to the US with its campaign against Iran? Or would it make a Taiwan invasion more likely, given the US' strategic failure to achieve its objectives?

What did China learn from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran

And what might China's conclusions then be regarding its own ambitions in Taiwan?

"My fear is that Beijing could look at the situation and conclude that the Americans are simply overwhelmed or incapable of achieving their objectives. I think that would be a very dangerous miscalculation, but that's not one that we can certainly rule out," J. Michael Cole, a Taipei-based senior fellow with the Global Taiwan Institute and a former intelligence officer, told DW. 

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