The Greens have made huge gains in two recent state elections in Germany. But to what extent is the success of this political party connected to the environment?
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Due to factors including Dieselgate and slogging plans for a coal phaseout, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's image as a green leader is not having its finest moment. Meanwhile, Germany's Greens are gaining ever more popularity.
At the end of October, Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) performed 10 percentage points poorer in elections in the German state of Hesse, the country's financial hub. Yet the Greens were the real winners, with 19.8 percent of the vote — a gain of 9 percent from the previous election and their best-ever result in the state.
Two weeks before that, Merkel's ally in the southern state of Bavaria — the Christian Social Union (CSU) — lost its absolute majority in elections, in a record-low result.
The Greens came in as the state's second-strongest party, with 17.5 percent of the votes — nearly double the share compared to the 2013 elections in Bavaria.
But what are the keys to the Greens' success in Germany? And how much of that has to do with the environment?
Favorable political context
Voters are discontent with Germany's ruling coalition, and other parties are benefiting from that, said Michael Stoiber, head of the comparative policy department at the University of Hagen in Germany.
According to pollster Infratest dimap, about 30 percent of voters in Hesse chose the party as an alternative out of disappointment with other parties. The Greens are a good option for those who are keen for a change, but who don't align with the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
And given infighting among coalition partners, voters see in the Greens a stable party with clear values.
"We have clearly stated what we want and what we don't. That's what counts for voters," Bettina Hoffmann, spokesperson for environmental policy of the Green parliamentary group, told DW.
In Hesse, voters rewarded the Greens for quiet government work, Hoffmann said.
There, the party won over some 100,000 votes each from SPD and CDU. In Bavaria, those figures were 200,000 and 170,000, respectively.
The Greens were apparently also the clear favorites for young and first-time voters. Most voters for the Greens in Germany have a higher education degree, live in large cities and belong to the middle class.
Although this profile also fits CDU voters, green voters tend to have a more liberal and modern mindset, Stoiber told DW. They represent a new "green" bourgeoisie.
Yet the party was also able to double their representation in Bavarian rural areas from 7 to 14 percent — due largely to voter discontent with the CSU.
A vote for the environment
Having literally formed out of the 1980s anti-nuclear movement in Germany, environmental issues have long been a core element of the Greens' platform.
40 years of German anti-nuclear action
Germany's anti-nuclear protests gave birth to the most influential Green Party in the world, also sowing the seeds of the German energy transition. And the fight goes on.
Image: AP
A movement is born
Germany’s anti nuclear movement got its start in the early 1970s, when protestors came out in force against plans for a nuclear power plant at Wyhl, close to the French border. Police were accused of using unnecessary force against the peaceful demonstrations. But the activists ultimately won, and plans for the Wyhl power station were scrapped in 1975.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Civil disobedience
Following the success of civil disobedience in Wyhl, similar protests were held in Brokdorf and Kalkar in the late 70s. Though they failed to prevent reactors being built, they proved that the anti-nuclear movement was a growing force.
Image: picture-alliance / dpa
No to nuclear waste
Gorleben has seen fierce protest against the nuclear industry ever since plans to store nuclear waste in a disused salt mine there were first announced in 1977. The site is a sparsely populated area close to the then-border with East Germany. Yet locals quickly showed they weren't going to accept radioactive material close to their homes without a fight.
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People power
From the beginning, the German anti-nuclear movement brought together church organizations, farmers and concerned local residents - along with student activists, academics, and peace protestors who saw a link between nuclear power and the atom bomb. Being at the frontline of the Cold War meant the threat of nuclear war loomed large in many German minds.
Image: AP
Breaking into mainstream politics
In the late 70s, anti-nuclear activists joined with other environment and social justice campaigners to form the Green Party. Today, this is a major force in German politics and probably the most powerful Green Party in the world. They won their first seats in the German federal parliament in 1983.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Pfund
Worst fears realized
In 1986, a reactor meltdown hundreds of miles away in Ukraine hardened public opinion against nuclear power in Germany. The Chernobyl disaster released radioactive fallout across Europe. In Germany, people were warned not to drink milk, eat fresh meat or let children play on playgrounds, where the sand might have been contaminated.
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End to nuclear becomes law
In 1998, the Green Party came into German federal government, as the junior partner in a coalition with the Social Democrats. In 2002, the "red-green" government passed a law banning new nuclear power plants and limiting the lives of existing plants so that the last would be switched off in 2022.
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Keeping the pressure up
Even with an end to nuclear power finally in sight, the anti-nuclear movement still had plenty to protest about. Many activists, including in the Green Party (with leaders Jürgen Tritten and Claudia Roth pictured above in Berlin in 2009) wanted nuclear power phased out far faster. Meanwhile, the German movement continued to join international calls for a global end to nuclear power.
Image: AP
Stop that train
Then there was still the question of what to do with nuclear waste. By 1995, containers of radioactive material were coming back from reprocessing abroad for storage at Gorleben. Over the years, transport of these "castors" has regularly been met with mass protests, including clashes with police.
Image: dapd
New lease of life for nuclear
Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Party had always opposed the law limiting the life of Germany's nuclear power plants - so after the party came to power in 2009, it effectively scrapped it by prolonging the lives of power plants - a major setback for the anti-nuclear movement.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/D. Ebener
Fukushima changes everything
In 201,1 the meltdown of a Japanese nuclear reactor saw Merkel's government make a rapid about-face. Within days of the Fukushima disaster, it passed a law to shut down the last of Germany's nuclear power plants by 2022. The phase-out was back on, and eight reactors were shut down that same year.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
The fight goes on
Since the grassroots action of the 70s, Germany's anti-nuclear movement has seen the country commit to ditching nuclear altogether. It's also helped push forward a shift to renewables, making Germany an international example in the fight against climate change. But the protests go on. This week, activists stopped the first boat carrying nuclear waste.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Schmidt
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Beside the favorable political context, voters' growing environmental awareness has naturally also played a role in the rise of the party.
Environmental protection and climate justice are increasingly important for Germans, Patrick Rohde, a policy planning expert with Friends of the Earth Germany (BUND), told DW.
Indeed, the environment ranked third in Bavarian voters' decisions, only behind education and housing, Infratest dimap showed. In addition, more than 70 percent of Germans are unhappy with the government's climate policy.
In both Bavaria and Hesse, most voters said climate protection is the issue the Greens deal best with. They also believe the party offers the best solutions for the future. Climate protection is seen as a key factor for a good future.
The diesel scandal also played a role among voters. More than 80 percent of Germans disapprove of the government's handling of Dieselgate, which started in 2015.
This has without doubt caused coalition parties to lose voters, Stoiber said.
Changes to come
"The long, hot, dry summer we experienced this year has convinced many people of the necessity to stop the climate crisis," Angela Dorn, chairwoman of the Greens in Hesse, told DW.
Yet the federal government refuses to do just that — "which is one of the reasons people in Germany are so fed up," she added.
As parties prepare new political programs, polling results have sent a clear message demanding greater climate protection. Rohde called it "a wake-up call."
The Greens are also working on their election program. Core points for the party include demanding a coal phaseout, as well as supporting climate-friendly mobility and sustainable agriculture.
The Greens in Hesse have an ambitious roadmap in place, in which they aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40 percent by 2025. "Hesse wants to be carbon neutral by 2050," Dorn added.
Now, they have to keep their promises and remain authentic, Rohde concluded. Otherwise, they risk following the CDU and SPD — and disappointing voters.
Whether the Greens' growing popularity ultimately causes other parties to increase ambition around climate protection policies remains to be seen.
Germany's major political parties — What you need to know
There are seven political parties in the German Bundestag and they rarely agree on anything. DW takes a look at their ideologies, leadership and history.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Schmidt
Christian Democratic Union (CDU)
The CDU has traditionally been the main center-right party across Germany, but it shifted toward the center under Chancellor Angela Merkel. The party remains more fiscally and socially conservative compared to parties on the left. It supports membership of the EU and NATO, budgetary discipline at home and abroad and generally likes the status quo. It is the largest party in the Bundestag.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/C. Schmidt
Christian Social Union (CSU)
The CSU is the sister party of the CDU in Bavaria and the two act symbiotically at the national level (CDU/CSU). Despite their similarities, the CSU is generally more conservative than the CDU on social issues. The CSU leader and premier of Bavaria, Markus Söder, ordered crosses in every state building in 2018.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/S. Schuldt
Social Democrats (SPD)
The SPD is Germany's oldest political party and the main center-left rival of the CDU/CSU. It shares the CDU/CSU support for the EU and NATO, but it takes a more progressive stance on social issues and welfare policies. It is currently in a coalition government with the CDU/CSU and is trying to win back support under interim leaders Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel, Manuela Schwesig and Malu Dreyer.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/W. Kumm
Alternative for Germany (AfD)
The new kid on the block is the largest opposition party in the Bundestag. The far-right party was founded in 2013 and entered the Bundestag for the first time in 2017 under the stewardship of Alice Weidel and Alexander Gauland. It is largely united by opposition to Merkel's immigration policy, euroscepticism, and belief in the alleged dangers posed by Germany's Muslim population.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/U. Deck
Free Democrats (FDP)
The FDP has traditionally been the kingmaker of German politics. Although it has never received more than 15 percent of the vote, it has formed multiple coalition governments with both the CDU/CSU and SPD. The FDP, today led by Christian Lindner, supports less government spending and lower taxes, but takes a progressive stance on social issues such as gay marriage or religion.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/W. Kumm
The Greens
The Greens, led today by Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck, emerged from the environmental movement in the 1980s. Unsuprisingly, it supports efforts to fight climate change and protect the environment. It is also progressive on social issues. But strong divisions have occasionally emerged on other topics. The party famously split in the late 1990s over whether to use military force in Kosovo.
Image: picture-alliance/Eventpress Rekdal
The Left
The Left, led by Katja Kipping and Bernd Riexinger, is the most left-wing party in the Bundestag. It supports major redistribution of wealth at home and a pacifist stance abroad, including withdrawing Germany from NATO. It emerged from the successor party to the Socialist Unity Party (SED) that ruled communist East Germany until 1989. Today, it still enjoys most of its support in eastern Germany.