Relations between the United States and China are at a low point. The two countries' military aircraft have come dangerously close to each other over the South China Sea, and export restrictions are escalating into an economic war. 

All the more reason for the world to look forward to the face-to-face meeting between China's head of state and party leader Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden in San Francisco on Wednesday — even if international expectations are rather modest, as Berlin political scientist Hanns W. Maull told DW.

Maull, an expert on East Asia and international order issues at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs and the Mercator Institute for China Studies, said the resumption of talks between Beijing and Washington was overdue.

"But that says nothing at all about whether the summit will succeed in making progress on the serious conflict issues that are at the root of the tensions between China and the US. Most observers doubt this," he said.   

Political scientist Josef Braml sees the US and China as already being "in the middle of a Cold War 2.0". His concern: "This economic war could squander the last chance of cooperation to curb climate change and avert the climate catastrophe and could lead to a hot war."

Energy transition relies on China 

Many of the products that Germany needs for its climate protection efforts and energy transition are made in China. Whether it's photovoltaic cells, battery technology or electromobility — hardly anything in the field of renewable energies would work without Chinese preliminary or end products.

This is especially the case for Germany, said Braml. "We have embarked on a bold experiment: Get out of fossil fuels, shut down nuclear power and boost renewables. That's why we are heavily dependent on China," he said.

Overall, the tensions between Washington and Beijing have put Berlin in a difficult situation. It finds itself stuck between the US, its most important political and military ally, and China, Germany's largest trading partner.

In preparation of this balancing act, the German government adopted a "China strategy" in July after a long and acrimonious debate. "China has changed. This fact and China's political decisions make it necessary to change the way we deal with China," reads the beginning of the text, which describes China as a "partner, competitor and strategic rival."

A key component of the strategy is to reduce Germany's dependence on China under the label "de-risking." The idea is to make sure that German companies become more involved in other countries and regions, in order to spread and thus reduce risks. 

In an initial reaction, Beijing Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin described the China strategy as counterproductive. "It only exacerbates the division of the world," he said.

A statement from the Chinese Embassy in Berlin read: "China is Germany's partner in overcoming challenges and not an adversary." It went on to say that it is not in the interests of either country to view China as a competitor and systemic rival, an assessment it refers to as "unrealistic."

Berlin between a rock and a hard place

Beijing was irritated when German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock described Chinese President Xi Jinping as a dictator in an interview with US broadcaster Fox News in early September. China's Foreign Ministry refuted the statement as "absurd," calling it a "provocation."

There was also criticism in Berlin. Jürgen Hardt, the foreign policy spokesman for the opposition center-right CDU/CSU in parliament, told DW at the time that "when someone makes such a statement as a diplomat or foreign minister, then one has to know that a political price will have to be paid. And the question is whether it was worth the price."

In the analysis of political scientist Xuewu Gu, that price was a substantial erosion of trust among the Chinese leadership, especially toward Baerbock's Green Party.

Germany's inner conflict, as it is sandwiched between the US and China, is also reflected in Germany's governing coalition. While Baerbock and Economy Minister Robert Habeck — both from the Green Party — have called for a tougher line on China, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a Social Democrat, is making sure that the China Strategy and de-risking are not implemented too restrictively. After all, German companies invested some €10.3 billion ($11.1 billion) in China in the first half of 2023 alone.

Some of that went to the field of communications technology, just one example of the many fields in which Germany's internal conflict between security and economic interests is being waged.

At the first NATO cyber defense conference at Berlin's Foreign Office in early November, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called on alliance members to stay away from components made by Chinese producers Huawei and ZTE. We must "avoid relying on equipment supplied by authoritarian regimes to build our digital backbone for the future," he said. Washington has long issued a similar warning.

Yet German mobile communications providers have continued to use Huawei components to expand the country's 5G network, without interference from the German government. Chinese products currently account for an estimated 60% of Germany's 5G network.

US-China relationship 'very challenging' for Germany, Europe

Maull characterized Germany's high-wire act between Beijing and Washington as "very challenging," but added "it's not just a German situation or position, but a European one."

And because the European Union is a significant actor in international trade relations, "as a part of the EU, Germany has weight and is in a position to exercise a certain influence on the US, China and the international order," he said.

However, Maull is also certain that "there can be no equidistance between the two poles." 

The US is Germany's natural ally, he said, but in the struggle between the US and China for global primacy, he also identified one German core interest: "To contain the possibly catastrophic collateral damage that could result from this rivalry over supremacy in the international order."

This article was originally written in German.

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