Just two weeks into his second presidency, Donald Trump has received his first international guest: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The two collaborated closely during Trump's first administration, such as when Trump made the controversial move to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital and moved the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to West Jerusalem in 2017.

Since then, much has changed in the Middle East. On October 7, 2023, Hamas, which the US, Germany and other governments designated a terrorist organization, led a series of attacks in Israel that killed around 1,200 people and took 250 taken hostage.

In response, Israel launched an unprecedented military campaign in the Gaza Strip, which, according to the enclave's Health Ministry — whose numbers the United Nations view as reliable — has killed at least 47,000 Palestinians, the vast majority of whom were civilians. In mid-January this year, with about 90% of the population displaced, the first stage of a ceasefire went into effect.

Now, with the second and third stages outstanding, Trump has taken Netanyahu's visit to Washington as an opportunity to present his questionable vision for Gaza's future.

What does Trump want to do?

The ceasefire agreement does not appear to entail long-term arrangements for the reconstruction of Gaza, which was severely destroyed after more than 15 months of the Israeli offensive. This is where Trump's proposal comes into play. The president wants to involve the US in efforts to reconstruct and economically develop the coastal Palestinian territory.

Trump has linked his plan with the intent of seizing political control in Gaza. In a joint White House press conference on Tuesday, standing next to Netanyahu at the White House, Trump said he saw the US as having a "long-term ownership position" of Gaza, which he suggested could become the "Riviera of the Middle East."

In a post on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump reiterated his plan to take control of Gaza, writing the enclave "would be turned over to the United States by Israel at the conclusion of fighting."

"The Palestinians ... would have already been resettled in far safer and more beautiful communities, with new and modern homes, in the region. They would actually have a chance to be happy, safe, and free."

He also wrote that US troops would not be necessary before concluding: "Stability for the region would reign!!!"

Trump's choice of words was reminiscent of what Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and former Middle East senior adviser, said in a February 2024 interview with Harvard University's Middle East Initiative program.

"Gaza's waterfront property, it could be very valuable if people would focus on building up livelihoods," said Kushner in the interview, which can be viewed on YouTube.

"It's a little bit of an unfortunate situation there, but I think from Israel's perspective, I would do my best to move the people out and then clean it up."

What about Palestinians living in Gaza?

"I don't think people should be going back to Gaza," Trump said on Tuesday, sitting next to Netanyahu in the Oval Office. "You can't live in Gaza right now. I think we need another location ... a beautiful area to resettle people, permanently, in nice homes where they can be happy and not be shot and not be killed and not be knifed to death."

Pressed later by a reporter on what this meant, Trump appeared to backtrack somewhat, saying his new waterfront "riviera" would be populated with "the world's people ... Palestinians also, Palestinians will live there. Many people will live there."

Any forcible displacement of Palestinians from Gaza would contravene international humanitarian law, which states that in international armed conflicts, it is unlawful "to deport or transfer the civilian population of an occupied territory unless the security of the civilians involved or imperative military reasons so demand."

Trump appears to be assuming that some 1.8 million Palestinians would voluntarily vacate Gaza. Speaking to the press, Trump said, "The only reason Palestinians want to go back to Gaza is they have no alternative."

He has proposed that neighboring Egypt or nearby Jordan should host the remaining Palestinians from Gaza — a prospect that has already been firmly rejected by the respective leaders of both countries.

What's the bigger picture?

During his first presidency, Trump made decisions that have already widely affected the Middle East. In a reversal of half-century-old US policy and contravention of international law, he recognized Israeli control over the occupied Golan Heights in 2019. And in 2017, he recognized Israel's annexation of east Jerusalem, and Jerusalem as Israel's capital.

Simultaneously, Trump also strove to improve Israel's diplomatic ties with its regional neighbors. Israel had already signed peace treaties with first Egypt, in 1979, and then Jordan, in 1994, under the auspices of US Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, respectively. 

During his first term, Trump brought countries to the table that until that point had not formally recognized the state of Israel — which was formally declared in 1948, following the mass displacement and flight of Palestinians from the territory.

In a first step in 2020, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates signed bilateral agreements that recognized Israel's sovereignty and enabled the establishment of diplomatic relations. Morocco followed soon after.

A crucial centerpiece in the normalization treaties is Saudi Arabia, the largest country and most powerful military force on the Arabian Peninsula. Though not an immediate neighbor, Saudi Arabia's northwestern territory extends nearly to the southernmost tip of Israel, separated only by a few kilometers of land and water.

In 2023, under then-President Joe Biden, an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel seemed within grasp. But following Israel's massive military response to Hamas's October 7 attacks, this prospect has drifted to a distant future.

It would seem, then, that Trump is aiming to strengthen ties with Israel's Sunni Muslim neighbors. During his first term, he floated the idea of an "Arab NATO," a prospective collective defense alliance between the US, Israel, Egypt, Jordan and six Sunni Gulf states that could act as a bulwark against Iran, home to a Shiite majority.

While Saudi Arabia might share an interest in this plan, after the October 7 attacks Saudi King Salman repeatedly made clear that he would not seek to normalize ties with Israel until a two-state solution was implemented.

What is the two-state solution, and why has Israel abandoned it?

The two-state solution is an organizing concept for Israel and the Palestinian territories that has been endorsed by many international powers, including Germany and most EU member states. When Ireland, Spain and Norway moved to recognize Palestine as a state in 2024, they also committed themselves to the two-state solution.

More than 140 countries have recognized Palestinian statehood since 1988. Germany and the remaining G7 countries have not. Neither has the United Nations, though it has given the "State of Palestine" non-member observer status.

The two-state solution envisions fully fledged Palestinian and Israeli states living side-by-side within mutually respected and inviolable borders. But ever since the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948, these principles have been repeatedly infringed upon.

The 1993 Oslo Accords outlined incremental steps toward more Palestinian autonomy by ceding partial control of the occupied West Bank to Palestinian authority.

During his first presidency, Trump initially distanced himself from a two-state solution before unveiling plans for implementing such a solution in 2020 alongside Netanyahu. But Trump's plan was sharply criticized as being unilaterally biased toward Israel, which had recently intensified the construction of internationally illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank.

Such illegal settlements and outposts have dampened any optimism for a two-state solution as they increasingly dissolve Palestinian territorial integrity.

Netanyahu's far-right, ultra-Orthodox administration has repeatedly rejected the two-state solution, with increasing vehemency since the October 7 attacks. Last July, Israel's Knesset overwhelmingly passed a resolution rejecting the establishment of a Palestinian state, arguing in part that this would be seen as rewarding Hamas.

Jennifer Holleis contributed to this article, which was originally written in German.