Independent estimates by relief organisations suggest that half a million people have been displaced by the latest fighting in Swat and the adjoining areas of Buner and Dir. This is in addition to about four to five hundred thousand internally-displaced persons (IDPs) who already fled from the region before the latest round of fighting and are living in camps or with relatives.

Sébastien Brack from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Islamabad says “right now, it’s too early to say with any degree of precision what the scale of displacement is. What we can say, though, is that we are talking about big numbers, and that most people are still in those areas.”

“They haven’t actually been able to leave those areas due to curfews and the fighting. So in fact, most of them are still in the area. They are staying with host families, in makeshift shelters, some of them probably are camping in the wilderness. At this stage, I think only a fraction of the IDPs have been able to actually leave the areas where the fighting is taking place.”

Taliban have blocked civilians from fleeing

Witnesses say that in some places the Taliban have prevented civilians from fleeing by blocking the roads. The Pakistani politician and civil society activist Harris Khalique confirms this: “You can’t say that everywhere it has happened but in some areas it definitely has happened. For example, in the Matta Tehsil of Swat, where the Taliban have a stronghold traditionally, this has happened because they want to use these people as human shields.”

Khalique adds that the civilian authorities in Pakistan have been slow to respond to the humanitarian problems: “There’s very little understanding among the bureaucracy of what is happening in these areas. And they have made very little effort. They’ve left it largely to UN agencies, which are again not as active as they should be as they become active in natural calamities.”

Difficulty accessing IDPs and helping them

Sébastien Brack of the ICRC says that access to the refugees is a major problem. “Our camps in Lower Dir, in Timmergarah, are receiving a lot of IDPs. But we need to be able to resupply those camps because right now we don’t have much stock in those camps. The ICRC is actually preparing itself to be able to intervene as soon as possible, within the coming 10 days, to help about 120,000 IDPs.”

Severe fighting is set to continue over the next few days, with the army determined to take back control of at least the major towns from the militants.

Its success in fighting the Taliban in Swat will be seen as a test case both in Pakistan and abroad, not least by the Obama administration in Washington. But a large-scale humanitarian crisis would easily undermine the already fragile support at home for the military operation.

Author: Thomas Bärthlein
Editor: Anne Thomas