It happened again on a train the other day: When the conductor came to check train tickets, Nour Al Zoubi was the only person in her compartment who needed to show identification. The conductor threatened to call the police if she did not comply. This was a typical situation for this Syrian-born social worker, who now works as a consultant for the Thuringia Refugee Council.

"There is this kind of everyday racism," she told DW. "But after living in Gera for six years, I'm used to it — I know how to handle it." 

Moving away is out of the question for Al Zoubi — even if the Alternative for Germany party (AfD), classified as right-wing extremist by Germany's domestic intelligence agency — were to win the Thuringian state election on September 1. Al Zoubi says that Thuringia is her home. She was awarded Gera's Integration Prize in 2020 for a newspaper project she founded for refugees.

After the incident with the train conductor, she received reassurance and encouragement from two older female passengers — things like that make her feel that she can stay.

"The number of AfD voters has increased — but so has the number of Germans committed to a culture of welcoming immigrants," she said. Al Zoubi knows some people who are considering leaving Thuringia if the AfD wins, but others don't have the option.

"Not all migrants in Thuringia can. Refugees and asylum seekers are required to stay in Thuringia for three years due to restrictive residence regulations."

Growing anti-immigration sentiment

The mood toward immigrants has been increasingly harsh in Thuringia for some time. The recent knife attack in Solingen in northwestern Germany, which left three people dead, is likely to inflame sentiments even further.

For Al Zoubi, this will mean extra caution — if, for example, things heat up again, such as when AfD Thuringia leader Björn Höcke got his Gera audience to shout Nazi slogans in December 2023, or when the weekly anti-migration protest winds its way through the town's streets. How does Al Zoubi envision the state after the election if the AfD does win?

"We will experience even more racism in public spaces, then. On a higher level. Not just insults, but physical violence, too. That's what I fear. Especially after what just happened in Southport, England," she said, referring to the stabbing of three girls, which triggered riots across the UK.

Many migrants fear an AfD election victory

Al Zoubi's gloomy view of the future is not an isolated one. In Dresden, 150 kilometers east of Gera, Ismail Davul is having similar thoughts. Davul was born in Turkey and came to Saxony to study in 2006. He has been working for Dresden's Foreigners' Council for almost 11 years. He mainly helps young migrants, but he also hears parents' concerns.

"Some people have asked me: In which direction is Saxony going?" he told DW. "What will it mean if the AfD wins? Will our living situation then change? The mood is clear: everyone is actually afraid."

Davul often hears about people who might leave Dresden should the AfD win Saxony's state election in September. He and his team reassure them by reminding them that the city council's democratic parties are fighting the shift to the right; that the situation won't change overnight; and that the Foreigners' Council and many civil society organizations are here in Dresden. But the reality is that a growing number of attacks against immigrants in this city are being reported to authorities, Davul told DW.

"In the past: an attack on an immigrant was very rare, it was an isolated incident. Back then, the media condemned such attacks much more than it does now. We hear that migrants are targets of attacks, mobbings, or are spat upon, every single day, just because of their appearance, skin color, or dialect. Sadly, this is almost commonplace on the streets today," Davul said.

Some have sympathies with the AfD

While many immigrants are extremely worried about AfD election victories in the states of Thuringia and Saxony, others even consider voting for the far-right party, despite its anti-immigration rhetoric and talk of "remigration" — a term coined for the plan to return immigrants to their place of origin, regardless of their citizenship status.

How can those two things coexist? Özgür Özvatan, a political sociologist at Humboldt University in Berlin, explained to DW how the AfD is targeting Erdogan supporters of Turkish origin living in Germany, and immigrants from Russia: In videos they glorify Turkish nationalism and the Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  To reach Russian-Germans they use the narrative that they were forced to integrate without getting recognition, and are still lacking status in German society. An estimated 6 million Russian-speaking people live in Germany. The majority of them are German nationals: ethnic Germans who came from the former Soviet Union — largely from Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.

The AfD's message to migrant voters is: You had to work hard for everything when you came, but now the new refugees are being given everything for free.

Özvatan explained that such messages are based on perceived truths — even if they do not stand up to fact-checking. The AfD is campaigning most heavily for the votes of young immigrants on social media like TikTok,  with a lot of money and the help of immigrant influencers. Özvatan believes that is down to simple arithmetic: The AfD can only win an election if it also wins over people with an immigration background.

"The AfD has learned how to connect with specific target groups on the new social media platforms. It has understood very well that 'recommendation algorithms' enable almost contradictory positions to be simultaneously spread in this social media world. Above all, there is a structural competitive advantage for anti-democratic parties: abbreviated and false content has a higher potential for virulence."

This article was originally written in German.

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