India shares a 1400 kilometre-long border with Myanmar -- ties between the two countries go back centuries. In the past, many Hindi-speaking people from the northern Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh migrated to the capital Yangon and lived there for several generations. Some even amassed huge fortunes by dealing in Burmese teakwood. But many of these migrants left when the military junta took power, leaving their properties behind.

However, the north-eastern states of India, especially Manipur, maintained business and social relations with the walled state. Although India regularly accused Myanmar of sheltering insurgents from north-east India, the two countries maintained more-or-less normal relations.

North-east India in particular has maintained close trade links with western Myanmar -- bilateral trade stands at nearly 100 crore rupees per year. Until recently the border town of Moreh was buzzing with activity but it now has a deserted look and there is gun-trotting security personnel everywhere. Because of the current political turmoil in Myanmar, the roughly 300 traders directly involved in trading with Myanmar have suspended their business.

Generally, the traders feel that the agitation for democracy is good but they are worried about the negative impact on trade. Yemben Iama, a businessman based in Moreh said that the volume of trade had gone down drastically since the troubles had began. Whereas Deli Kumar, the president of the Indo-Myanmar Border Traders Union (IMBTU) said he could not hope for an improvement and feared the volume of trade would continue to decrease. The traders also said that India's stand has also affected business.

Strategic interests

So far, the Indian government has been treading very carefully. It has asked for the release of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and called for an enquiry into the violence, but it has opposed sanctions against the military junta, citing its policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other nations for its reluctance to take a strong position.

Political observers in the north-east suggest that the real reason for India's soft stance towards the military rulers is its long-term strategic interest in the country. They say that Myanmar could also help India deal with the insurgencies in the troubled north-east.

Myanmar is also strategically vital for India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands. If Myanmar permits China to operate naval bases along its coastline, the Indian Navy's dominance in the Bay of Bengal will be at risk.

Another very important reason for increased interest in Myanmar are its oil and gas reserves, which could help India meet its growing energy requirements. Furthermore, India also has strong military ties with the junta and some sources have said India is looking to wrap up a 100 million dollar deal with the military regime over the next few weeks.

Under that deal, India will build transit roads, railways, waterways and a port. The most important of these projects is the Kaladan multi modal transit facility which envisages connectivity between Indian ports on Eastern seaports and ports in Myanmar.

Increased protests

However, all over north-east India, people from all walks of life have been demonstrating against Myanmar's military junta.

In Guwahati, the capital of Assam, which is also known as the "gateway to the north-east" for instance more than a thousand people participated in a candle-lit vigil to express solidarity with the struggling Burmese people. The vigil was organised by the North-East People's Initiative for Peace, Justice and Demilitarisation, which brings together various socio-political organisations in the trouble-torn region.

In Manipur, which shares an almost 350-kilometre border with Myanmar, activists from Burma Solidarity, which campaigns against the military junta in Myanmar, organised a demonstration with the people from the Zomi tribe last week.

Whether the Indian government can remain a mute spectator of these demonstrations has yet to be seen.