Voters in Cyprus will go to the polls on Sunday to elect their eighth president since becoming an independent republic almost 64 years ago. They will be choosing between two Foreign Ministry diplomats who are going head-to-head in the second round of the presidential election.

Former Foreign Minister Nikos Christodoulides, 49, emerged as the center-right candidate, despite his failure to gain the support of the ruling right-wing Democratic Rally (DISY), of which he was once a member.

Christodoulides faces off against career diplomat Andreas Mavroyiannis, who is backed by the leftist Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL).

In the first round of the election, Christodoulides received 32% of the vote, and Mavroyiannis 29.6%, leaving the candidate of the ruling DISY, Averof Neophytou, trailing in third.

Front-runner split from party to run for president

Christodoulides is one of the closest associates of the outgoing President Nicos Anastasiades and a former career diplomat at the Foreign Ministry. He was appointed government spokesman in 2014 and foreign minister in 2018. His decision to run for president — ignoring the internal procedures of his then party, DISY — was viewed by fellow members and officials as a divisive act that ultimately led to his expulsion from the party.

After breaking ranks with DISY, Christodoulides positioned himself as an independent candidate. He has the backing of three parties, the Democratic Party, the Movement for Social Democracy and the Democratic Alignment, and several public figures on the Cypriot right. His widespread popularity remains his biggest asset.

Opponents blame Christodoulides for 'Cyprus problem' deadlock

During his election campaign, Christodoulides' profile as a consensual, moderate politician took a blow when his political opponents claimed he was partly responsible for the deadlock in what is known as the "Cyprus problem" during his time as minister of foreign affairs.

Cyprus has been divided since 1974, following a Turkish military intervention after a coup backed by Greece. Numerous United Nations attempts at mediation between the Greek Cypriot Republic of Cyprus in the south and the breakaway Turkish Cypriot north have failed to overcome the division.

Ever since Greek Cypriots overwhelmingly voted against the Annan Plan (named after the then UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan) — a 2004 UN proposal to unite the island by establishing a bizonal, bicommunal federation — the situation has been at an impasse.

Christodoulides' credibility in this respect was shaken by the fact that he has the backing of parties that are traditionally tough on talks to solve the decadeslong division of the island and are opposed to a bizonal, bicommunal federation.

Mavroyiannis a seasoned diplomat with years of international experience

The second candidate in the runoff, Andreas Mavroyiannis, has been a close associate of several presidents of the Republic of Cyprus. The 66-year-old career diplomat served as the negotiator for the Greek Cypriot side in the Cyprus talks under the presidency of Nikos Anastasiades and was Cyprus' permanent representative at the UN during a difficult period for the country after the rejection of the Annan Plan.

Supporters believe his wealth of experience at the international level lends credibility to his candidacy, with many feeling he could breathe new life into the negotiations on the Cyprus problem and achieve a compromise between the Greek Cypriot and the  Turkish Cypriot sides.

Although he has the backing of the leftist AKEL, Mavroyiannis has refuses to declare himself a supporter of any particular political ideology. His critics are quick to point to the fact that AKEL was the party in power at the start of the 2008 economic crisis.

Mavroyiannis has dismissed this criticism, saying he intends to govern Cyprus based on the values of a free-market economy.

Dual political polarization 

Ahead of the second round of the election, Greek Cypriot voters are polarized in two ways: On the one hand, there is the ideological rift between the left and the right. On the other hand, there is a rift between those who support a bizonal, bicommunal federation as a solution to the Cyprus problem and those who oppose it.

Given his popularity and the fact that he is a close associate of the outgoing president and former member of the ruling DISY, Nikos Christodoulides would seem on paper to be the candidate most likely to attract votes from the right wing of the electorate.

However, the fact that his candidacy divided the right-wing vote in the first round and prevented DISY leader Averof Nephytou from making it to the runoff has created ill will within the party. In addition, the fact that Christodoulides is supported by parties opposed to the bizonal, bicommunal solution means some DISY voters are having second thoughts about his candidacy. As a result, many expect a considerable shift in support to Mavroyiannis.

Indeed, after a long, stormy meeting on Tuesday, the ruling DISY party announced it intended to serve in opposition for the next five years and urged its members to vote as their conscience dictates, effectively refusing to back former member Christodoulides.

Edited by: Rüdiger Rossig and Aingeal Flanagan