As the sun sets on Josep Borrell's five-year term as the European Union's chief foreign envoy, the Spaniard is making a likely ill-fated last push for the bloc to use its trade relations with Israel as leverage on Gaza.

In the run-up to his final foreign ministers' meeting next Monday, Borrell proposed to member states that they suspend dialogue with Israel in the context of the free trade deal that sets the contours of their relationship.

"It's up to the ministers to see… whether they agree and proceed or not, " Borrell's spokesperson Peter Stano told reporters in Brussels on Thursday, recalling that the move would require unanimity. Crucially, Borrell will ask foreign ministers to discuss whether Israel is violating international humanitarian law in Gaza and act accordingly, Stano added.

In October 2023, Israel launched a massive aerial, naval and land offensive in the Palestinian territory to wipe out Hamas, which controls Gaza, after the militant group carried out terrorist attacks that killed some 1,200 people in southern Israel and seized dozens of hostages.

Since then, more than 43,000 people have been killed and 103,000 wounded, according to the latest toll from the Gaza Health Ministry, which is controlled by Hamas but deemed by the UN to provide broadly reliable figures.

Last week, the UN Human Rights Office said that 70% of the 8,000 fatalities in Gaza it had been able to verify were women and children. The body spoke of "unprecedented levels of killings, death, injury, starvation, illness, disease, displacement, detention and destruction" and accused both the Israeli Defense Forces and Palestinian armed groups of "wanton disregard” for international law.

Israel categorically rejected that report, as it frequently does similar allegations, saying that it failed to accurately reflect reality. The country insists it is acting within international law and has the right to defend itself.

A surprise proposal with limited prospects

Several diplomatic sources told DW on condition of anonymity that Borrell's proposal had come out of the blue at a meeting of ambassadors on Wednesday. Given that the move would require unanimity among the fiercely divided 27 member states, none of the diplomats DW spoke to expected that the proposal would become reality.

Over the past year, the EU, which officially supports a two-state solution as the ultimate way out of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, has struggled to speak with one voice and have any decisive impact on the course of the conflict.

Some EU members, including Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic and Hungary, have closely backed Israel, while Ireland, Belgium and Spain have frequently argued the case of Palestinians. Among senior EU officials, Borrell has stood out as one of the more vocal critics of Israel's ongoing Gaza campaign. 

A trade deal built on ‘respect for rights'?

For nine months, Madrid and Dublin have called for the European Commission to examine whether Israel is honoring its human rights obligations under the EU-Israel Association Agreement. 

A ruling from the International Court of Justice in July also has implications for the deal. It found Israel's occupation of the Palestinian Territories to be illegal, and that states have an obligation "to take steps to prevent trade or investment relations that assist in the maintenance of the illegal situation created by Israel in the [Ocuppied Palestinian Territory]."

Last month, Spain urged the EU executive branch to consider suspending outright the wide-ranging deal, which has been in force since 2000.

Borrell's proposal appears less ambitious than this, according to Hugh Lovatt of the European Council on Foreign Relations, who told DW he did not view the intervention as particularly helpful.

"Borrell is lowering the bar without any progress in getting member states onboard,” he said. Suspending political dialogue would be the "lowest hanging fruit and something Israel does not care about at this stage," the analyst charged.

The EU-Israel Association Agreement covers everything from political relations and preferential trade in goods and services, to cooperation on the environment, and tackling drugs and money laundering. As of 2022, the bloc stood out as Israel's major trading partner, along with the United States.

As well as ensuring regular contact between ministers, senior officials and diplomats, the EU-Israel Association Agreement enshrines "respect for human rights and democratic principles" as the basis for its implementation.

Shutting down political dialogue in the context of the deal would send a message to Israel, but would not signify an outright suspension of diplomatic relations.

Borrell's last stand

Nonetheless, Borrell's parting shot will likely bump Israel to the top of the agenda for Monday's foreign affairs ministers' meeting.

"The High Representative will ask member states to consider whether Israel is violating relating human rights, whether Israel is respecting or no international humanitarian law in line with the respective articles in the association agreement," Peter Stano said on Thursday.

In a few weeks' time Borrell, who in his long career has served as both foreign minister of Spain and president of the European Parliament, is due to hand over the baton to Kaja Kallas. The former Estonian prime minister is known mainly for her strong stance on Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and seems unlikely to echo Borrell on Israel.

"I expect Kallas to be less focused on Gaza and less pro-active in pushing member states to take action," said Lovatt of the European Council on Relations.

Back in September, Daniel Schwammenthal, director of the AJC Transatlantic Institute, the Brussels-based office of the American Jewish Committee, said that Israelis saw Borrell "as anti-Israel and thus unsuitable to play a mediating role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict." In his estimation, "EU-Israel relations can only improve under the new leadership."

How the EU's relationship with Israel could evolve also depends on developments in the US, where President-elect Donald Trump is currently tapping candidates for his next cabinet. Trump sees himself as a savvy political dealmaker, and says he will put an end to the conflict, though his exact plan remains unclear.

Edited by: Anne Thomas