Sudan: Protesters log victory, military calls the shots
Rainer Sollich
July 6, 2019
The Sudanese military and civilian opposition have agreed on democratic elections in three years' time. Meanwhile, they're supposed to share power in a council. But will they? And can they without more violence?
Image: Getty Images/AFP/Y. Chiba
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No more violence, no more bloodshed. Instead, Sudanese military leaders and civilian opposition protesters have agreed upon a compromise negotiated by a mediator from the African Union, Mohamed Hassan Lebatt, some six months after the start of mass demonstrations and three months after Sudan's longtime ruler Omar al-Bashir was overthrown.
The agreement is a road map for the political future of the country and one that will, at least initially, avert the threat of further escalation of the conflict. According to various sources, 140 demonstrators were killed by Sudanese security forces in two violent confrontations in June.
Sudan: From protests to power struggle
Following the violent crackdown on the protest camp in Khartoum, the tension between the civilians and military became even more strained. Yet the stalemate appears over — for now. Here's a chronology of events.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/A. Shazly
Breaking fast during the protests
For weeks — even during Ramadan — thousands of protesters camped outside Sudan's defense ministry, demanding a transitional council in which civilians could decide the future of the country. In early June the military moved in and forcefully removed the protesters. Dozens of people died and those who survived reported rapes, sexual abuse, and the use of force.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/A. Shazly
For the love of the country
A protester holds up the national flag outside the army headquarters. His demand: that Sudan's Transitional Military Council hand over power to the civilians. This, the protesters believe, will be an important step towards democracy.
Image: Reuters
Warning signs
In early June, just days ahead of the crackdown on the sit-in, the military increased its presence on the streets. Many protesters predicted that the army would not want to hand over power. This was what they hoped for after the ousting of longtime president, Omar al-Bashir.
Image: Getty Images/AFP
The end of an era
From 1989 until his April 2019, Omar al-Bashir ruled Sudan. He suppressed critics. In 1999 he even dismantled parliament in order to maintain his grip on power. His name will, however, be remembered for his handling of the Darfur crisis. His troops' harsh response led to thousands of deaths, and for that, he is wanted for crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court.
Image: Reuters/M. Nureldin Abdallah
A dictator in court
Many Sudanese had been waiting for this day for a long time — the day when Omar al-Bashir would have to face a court. On June 16, he appeared before prosecutors, accused of corruption and the illegal possession of foreign currency. After being ousted, security forces found over one million US dollars stashed away in his villa.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/M. Hjaj
The voice of the women
Many women actively participated in the protests, and they gave the protests a different face. Their presence underlined the protesters' demand for democracy and equal rights. During the brutal crackdown by security forces, many women reported sexual abuse and rape as a means to silence them.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/A. Shazly
The Nubian queen - an icon of the revolution
Architecture student Alaa Salah became the face of the revolution. A photographer shot this picture as she stood on top of a car and addressed protesters. Photos and videos of her protest chants trended on social media. Online she is known as "Kandaka" or the Nubian queen.
Image: Getty Images/AFP
International solidarity
Thanks to social media, the protests rapidly caught international attention and support from human rights groups and Sudanese living abroad. In a statement, the EU's foreign ministers urged for an immediate end to all forms of violence against Sudanese civilians.
But not all Sudanese civilians are against the army. Some people, in fact, want a tough military rule to give the country security and strength. The army supporters have placed their faith in General Abdel Fattah Burhan, the head of the Transitional Military Council.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/A. Shazly
The strongman in the background
The real power, however, lies not with General Abdel Fattah Burhan, but his deputy, General Mohammed Hamdan Daglu, also known as "Hemeti." He heads the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) who cracked down brutally on the protesters. During the war in Darfur, he commanded the feared Janjaweed militias. The protesters fear that he could, in the end, take over power.
Image: Reuters/M.N. Abdallah
No end in sight to the protests
The protests continued unabated throughout June. Military leaders on Monday, June 23, turned down a proposal for a power-sharing deal. The protest leaders, represented by the coalition Forces for Declaration of Freedom and Change, which includes the Sudanese Professionals Association, had accepted the deal which was negotiated with the help of Ethiopia.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/Y. Chiba
Power-sharing deal negotiated
On July 5, members of the military and the protest movement announced they had reached a deal to share power. For the next three years, a transitional council consisting of six civilians and five military figures will lead the country. Democratic elections will then be held. People in Khartoum celebrated the news, though the practicalities of implementation could cause conflict to reignite.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/A. Shazly
Help from the Gulf
Politicians of other Arab nations continue to watch the developments in Sudan with a certain degree of concern. Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, it is believed, fears that successful grassroots protests could set an example for citizens in the Arab Peninsula. Both the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia appear to be supporting the military regime.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Ministry of Presidential Affairs/M. Al Hammadi
The neighbor in the North
Cairo seems similarly concerned about the events in Khartoum. Egyptian president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi (pictured l. with Omar al-Bashir in 2018) fears that the Muslim Brotherhood, which Eygpt has been trying to silence, could fall on fertile ground in Sudan. If the Muslim Brotherhood gains support in Sudan, al-Sisi believes that its success might strengthen the group again in Egypt.
Image: picture-alliance/Photoshot/MENA
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Power-sharing council
Protesters — mostly middle-class doctors, students, teachers, and lawyers — had to make some painful compromises.
According to the agreement, democratic elections will take place after a transitional period of more than three years, during which time there will be no parliament.
What will instead take shape is a form of power sharing at the highest level: A transitional council is to determine the country's fate in the coming years. Its composition will be largely balanced between leaders from the military and the civilian protest movement, with each side sending five representatives.
The deal between the military and opposition movement was negotiated by members of the African UnionImage: AFP/Getty Images/A. Shazly
An eleventh civilian member agreed upon by both the military and the opposition will complete the council. This member could be decisive in any future stalemates, so especially difficult negotiations are expected when it comes to agreeing upon the individual.
The deal also foresees a transitional Cabinet consisting of civilians with area expertise. This is being seen as a concession on the part of military because, according to currently available information, the protest movement will have the final say over a majority of seats in the Cabinet. For this very reason, it is unlikely that this "technocratic Cabinet" will have a level of power that is in any way comparable to that of the transitional council.
'Last resort' measures in waiting
For now, the battle over Sudan's future will take place in the transitional council — but both sides do have external "backup battalions" to call on, if necessary.
For the military this means armed soldiers, especially the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a notorious paramilitary force that emerged from the Janjaweed militias that fought in the long-running war in Darfur. The RSF is being blamed for the violence in Khartoum in June. In turn, the civilian protest opposition can exert pressure again as needed in the form of strikes and mass protests.
However, it seems unlikely that either side would use their "last resort" measures, for such a scenario would ultimately undermine the laboriously negotiated power sharing arrangement and lead to fresh violence. But both sides are likely to continue to threaten to do so as a means of exerting pressure.
Civilian protesters can claim a partial victory with the agreed-upon transition dealImage: Getty Images/AFP/A. Shazly
Arab neighbors and Sudan's military
Ultimately, however, the Sudanese military has the upper hand. In addition to weapons and its long-standing central role and experience in the country's political and economic power structures, the army also has the support of important regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt.
Moreover, these states will only tolerate democratic experiments in Sudan in so far as they do not contradict their own interests. Among other things, they want to limit the power of their regional rivals Qatar and Turkey, as well as that of the Muslim Brotherhood. Saudi Arabia also desperately needs the continued support of Sudanese soldiers for its coalition fighting in the war in Yemen.
Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo is also known as Heremti or HermedtiImage: Getty Images/AFP/E. Hamid
Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemeti, is the man who has voiced Sudan's loyalty to all three Arab "brother states." He is not only the deputy chairman of the Sudanese military council that currently holds power but also the leader of the RSF — and the acts of violence allegedly perpetrated by the RSF are supposed to be investigated by an "independent" committee. This could become another flare-up point, especially if Hemeti's role is brought into question.
For the second time since al-Bashir's ousting, demonstrators can claim a partial victory based on the power sharing agreement. But this also applies to Hemeti and the military, which will officially remain in a position of full power for at least three years. With the help of its strong financial allies in the Gulf region, the military will continue to do everything in its power, even after the transition period, to remain the ultimate power broker in Sudan.
