Tensions have mounted in the Kashmirregion, on the border between India and Pakistan, in recent weeks. After the Indian army claimed to have attacked targets in Pakistan on Wednesday night, killing what they said were numerous "militants," the Pakistani army responded with artillery fire and reported it had downed several Indian fighter jets and dozens of Indian drones.

According to Pakistan's Ministry of Information, up to 50 Indian soldiers were killed on the de facto border. There has been no confirmation from the Indian side so far. Overnight, Indian shelling in Pakistan-administered Kashmir killed five civilians, including a 2-year-old girl, according to Pakistani officials, and India suspended civilian flights at 24 airports.

The rising tensions between the two nuclear powers has sparked fears around the world over its potential to escalate.

Face-to-face: India and Pakistan, two of the world's biggest armies

With almost 1.5 million active soldiers, India's military is currently the fourth-largest army in the world after the People's Liberation Army in China. In addition, India has 1.1 million soldiers in reserve who could be recruited in an emergency, and as many as 2.5 million people who are organized in paramilitary units. In total, that means up to 5 million people could fight in a war.

In comparison, around 650,000 are currently serving in Pakistan's army. That makes the country the 12th-largest army in the world, according to the global defense review Global Firepower. It has around 550,000 soldiers in reserve and an equally large number of paramilitaries, making a total of around 1.7 million armed fighters.

Neither country provides exact figures on how many of these military and paramilitary personnel are stationed in Kashmir. It's estimated that up to 750,000 are stationed on the Indian side. They not only guard the "Line of Control," as the disputed border between India and Pakistan is known, but they also crack down on separatist groups inside the predominantly Muslim province of Jammu and Kashmir.

Pakistan's army: State within the state

On the Pakistani side, there are said to be around 150,000 soldiers in the area, as well as various militant groups. India has described these as terrorist groups and has accused Pakistan of supporting them. Pakistan, however, has denied this claim.

Unlike in India, the army has always played a special role in politics and society in Pakistan. Since the state was founded in 1947, there have been several military coups.

To this day, the army leadership wields indirect influence on the country's foreign and security policy, as well as over changes of government and political decisions. Pakistan's military is heavily involved in the country's economy and has stakes in numerous companies.

India is a military heavyweight

India is an absolute heavyweight when it comes to military spending. According to the latest report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute(SIPRI), New Delhi spent around $86 billion (€76.4 billion) on defense in 2024, more than ever before in the country's history. India's military budget has continued to grow in recent years, and currently it's roughly eight times larger than that of Pakistan, at $10.2 billion.

In 2024, India was the second-largest arms importer in the world according to SIPRI, right after Ukraine. Most of its army equipment comes from Russia. In March, New Delhi and Moscow signed a multimillion-dollar contract to provide India with more powerful engines for its T72 battle tanks — which are also from Russia. In addition, Indian and Russian defense companies have been working together in the research, development and production of weapons systems for years.

Nevertheless, the proportion of Russian arms imports has continued to decline in recent years. India is relying more than ever on its own arms industry, but is also buying from Western countries. France, for example, is set to deliver a further 26 Rafale fighter jets to India by 2030, after having already sold 36 jets of this type to New Delhi in 2016. But now, the United States and Israel are also among the country's larger arms suppliers.

Pakistan highly dependent on China

SIPRI ranks Pakistan as fifth-highest on the global list of arms importers. In recent years, Islamabad has invested in its air force and navy in particular, with most of its supplies coming from China. In the past four years, Pakistan has purchased 81% of its military equipment from China.

China's relations with India are tense, not least due to various border conflicts — including in Kashmir — but due to the fact that Beijing maintains close economic relations with Pakistan. Chinese goods gain access to the Indian Ocean via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The Pakistani deep-sea port of Gwadar, which is also used by the Chinese navy, is located at the end of the corridor.

Well-balanced nuclear arsenals

In terms of numbers and technology, India's conventional armed forces are clearly superior to those of Pakistan. But what makes the conflict over Kashmir and any potential escalation dangerous is that both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers. According to SIPRI estimates, each have around 170 nuclear warheads.

Both countries are committed to maintaining nuclear weapons to ensure a credible deterrent. While India made a unilateral commitment in 1999 to refrain from a nuclear first strike, Pakistan has made no such declaration in view of its conventional underdog status vis-a-vis India. Should Pakistan be forced into the defensive during a war, it has at least kept open the option of being the first to launch a nuclear strike.

Since their partitioning in 1947, India and Pakistan have fought three wars against each other. The deadliest clash came in 1999, when, as young nuclear powers, the two countries clashed in the so-called Kargil conflict. At the time, they were able to prevent a further escalation after a few months. But ever since, both countries have continuously expanded their nuclear arsenals.

This article was originally written in German.