The image of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi holding hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin carried powerful symbolism.  

New Delhi has been trying to rebuild ties with Beijing in recent months, after relations soured following deadly border clashes in 2020, triggering a yearslong standoff between the two nuclear-armed Asian giants.

At the same time, India has continued its close energy and defense partnership with Russia, despite Western criticism.

Modi's high-profile visit to China came as US-India relations grew strained after US President Donald Trump's administration in Washington raised its tariffs on a range of Indian goods to as high as 50%.

Indian foreign policy experts, however, say New Delhi is not fully turning away from Washington, stressing that the situation is more about balancing competing pressures and leveraging relationships across blocs.

Meera Shankar, a former envoy to the US, said India is following a policy of multi-alignment and strategic autonomy in an increasingly unstable and volatile world.

"India is seeking to rebalance its relations with the great powers in the light of the Trump administration targeting India with high tariffs and singling it out for special penalties on the import of Russian oil," she said.

Shankar underlined that the friction between India and the US could put decades of growing strategic partnership and complicated defense cooperation at risk.

"Disruption in ties between India and the US could adversely affect the objective of both countries to shape a more stable balance in Asia and would also provide a fillip to China's growing sway in this region," she said.

No alignment with China and Russia

Shankar described India's approach to dealing with the US as "neither confrontation nor capitulation."

She added: "We will continue to see how best we can work our way forward through or around our differences, within the framework of our right to choose our own policies." 

Despite the current tensions, Trump recently said the US and India have a "special relationship" and there is nothing to worry about as the two countries "just have moments on occasion."

"I'll always be friends with (Narendra) Modi… He's a great prime minister. He's great. But I just don't like what he's doing at this particular moment," the US president said at the Oval Office when asked whether he was prepared to reset relations with India.

Modi responded to Trump's statement saying both sides still shared "very positive" ties.

"Deeply appreciate and fully reciprocate President Trump's sentiments and positive assessment of our ties," the Indian prime minister wrote on the social media platform X, adding that India and the US shared a "very positive and forward-looking comprehensive and global strategic partnership."

Amitabh Mattoo, dean at Jawaharlal Nehru University's School of International Studies, said New Delhi's outreach to Beijing and Moscow should not be mistaken for "naive alignment."

It's classic Indian statecraft, strategic hedging wrapped in the rhetoric of multipolarity, he noted.

"In this balancing act, India is neither succumbing to Chinese blandishments nor abandoning its long-term bet on the US. Think of it as India walking a diplomatic tightrope," Mattoo told DW.

Mattoo, who has been chronicling their bilateral ups and downs, said the danger for Washington is not that India will become an adversary, but that India will become more self-sufficient, less dependent, and therefore less pliable.

"If the US fails to read India's aspirations, it risks losing not just an ally, but a partner that could anchor its Indo-Pacific vision. In a century where the tectonic plates of power are shifting, America cannot afford to appear fickle in Asia," he said.

Do India and the US need each other?

Mattoo, however, was quick to point out that India, too, could not sustain a prolonged diplomatic impasse with the US in the long term.

"It may hedge, posture, and diversify its partnerships, but at the end of the day, the US remains indispensable — technologically, militarily, and geopolitically," he said.

"The relationship will have turbulence, but the logic of convergence is stronger than the logic of divergence. For both nations, the choice is stark. Friction is a luxury, partnership is a necessity."

The current US tariffs affect roughly half of India's nearly $87 billion (€74.7 billion) worth of annual exports to the US.

They apply to goods like textiles, gems, leather, marine products, and chemicals, while electronics, smartphones and pharmaceuticals remain exempt, for now.

The duties threaten the competitiveness of labor-intensive sectors, raising the specter of mass job losses and economic downturn.

The chill in relations also coincides with India and the European Union intensifying efforts to reach an ambitious free trade agreement, with two critical negotiation rounds scheduled for the coming month to resolve longstanding issues.

'India committed to strategic autonomy'

Harsh Vardhan Shringla, a former Indian foreign secretary, said that both India and US recognize that their strategic partnership remains mutually indispensable for navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.

"India remains committed to strategic autonomy. It engages major powers for diplomacy, not for choosing sides or entering rigid new alliances," Shringla told DW.

He pointed out that ties with the US are the most comprehensive and multi-faceted India has with any country, stressing confidence in the durability of the partnership despite periods of strain.

"The bilateral connection transcends immediate political or economic friction and is capable of weathering shifts in global and domestic contexts."

Sreeram Chaulia, professor and dean at the Jindal School of International Affairs, echoed this view.

He stressed that neither China nor Russia could replace the US in India's strategic calculus, not least because of India's significant trade deficits with those countries.

"India's trade deficit with China for the fiscal year 2024-25 was over $99 billion, driven largely by a surge in imports of electronic goods, consumer durables, electric batteries, and solar panels," Chaulia told DW.

"Moreover, China's approach is driven by a zero-sum mentality and hegemonic aspirations. The relationship with US is complex but fundamentally based on strategic convergence and mutual benefit."

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru