The Indian Air Force (IAF) has garnered global scrutiny following India's military conflict with Pakistan in May. While Indian generals trumpeted the air force's role in targeting what New Delhi said was terror infrastructure in Pakistan, they also admitted "losses" during the clashes.

This controversy has renewed the discussion on the systemic challenges plaguing the IAF for decades, such as outdated aircraft, shortage of pilots and lack of training resources combined with overdue deliveries and delayed defense deals.

But the most glaring problem facing the IAF is its shrinking fighter squadron strength.

A squadron size in military aviation varies depending on the country but generally ranges between 18 and 24 aircraft. With India due to retire its Soviet-developed MiG-21 planes in September, the IAF will have only 29 squadrons at its disposal — the lowest number ever and way below the sanctioned strength of 42.

The MiG-21, originally developed in the 1950s, was India's first supersonic fighter jet and was long seen as a crown jewel in India's aerial fleet. But the legacy of MiG- 21 was also overcast by hundreds of crashes — including numerous fatal ones — which led to the aircraft being dubbed a "flying coffin."

India's military has intended to replenish the outdated jet with an indigenously manufactured Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), but its defense industry has been slow to deliver.

Threat of war has India compare capacities with China, Pakistan

India's Air Chief Marshal AP Singh said in February that the IAF needs to induct 35-40 fighter planes every year to fill its capacity shortfall.

Last week, India's Chief of Army Staff General Upendra Dwivedi warned that the country's "next war… may happen soon."

The country has had decades of clashes with Pakistan and is increasingly colliding with China on the global stage, with serving and former Indian air force officials telling DW that the shortage of planes needs to be addressed on a "war footing."

With the retirement of MiG-21, the IAF's squadron strength will come close to the Pakistan Air Force's (PAF) 25 squadrons and way below the Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force's (PLAFF) 66 squadrons, according to media reports. In other words, India will now have 522 jets as opposed to China's approximately 1,200 fighter jets and Pakistan's 450.

"Over the last decade, the modernization of the PLAAF has also been conducted at a very rapid pace, and presently they have capabilities which are much larger than the IAF," Ashish Vohra, a retired air vice marshal and additional director general of New Delhi-based Centre for Air Power Studies, told DW.

India looks within to renew fighter strength

In recent years, New Delhi has launched a push to modernize its armed forces with a key focus on self-reliance, but this push has been plagued by massive delays.

India remains the second-largest arms importer in the world, topped only by Ukraine. The IAF currently has seven different fighter aircraft types in its fleet, including three of Soviet and Russian origin, two designed solely by French companies, one of British and French make and a sole indigenous one  — the HAL Tejas.

Last week, the Indian government gave the green signal to a mammoth deal worth around $7.2 billion to acquire 97 Tejas Mark 1A fighters in place of the MiG-21s. 

The single-engine Tejas Mark 1A, produced by Indian public sector defense company Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), is the mainstay of India's Light Combat Aircraft Programme which was established in 1983 to address the issue of the IAF's aging fleet.

The indigenous project has now spanned over 40 years but only 38 Tejas MK1A fighters have been inducted into the IAF so far.

Last week's major deal comes on top of a 2021 order of 83 jets. This order remains unfulfilled.

Tejas planes need imported engines

HAL has attributed the stalled timeline for the delivery of the fighters to the delay in the supply of engines from their US partner GE aerospace.

"Tejas has gone through a lot of problems and we are still dependent on imported engines. Excessive focus on indigenization has actually taken the focus slightly away from the imperatives of equipping the IAF. The main objective should be to equip the IAF rather than insisting that it should be through the indigenous route," Amit Cowshish, a former financial adviser for acquisitions in India's Defense Ministry, told DW.

Experts have also raised worries that by the time the last Tejas Mark 1A is inducted into the IAF, it will already be outdated.

"Even if HAL is able to supply about 20 aircraft annually, it means it will essentially take nine years to supply these 180 aircraft. Even if it goes up to 24-30 aircraft every year it will take at least another 7 years for this entire batch of aircraft to be supplied," retired Air Vice Marshal Vohra pointed out.

"The way aviation technology is changing so rapidly that the relevance of the Tejas Mark 1A may have diminished by that time. You would require new technologies, new weapon systems which is something that the HAL is working on in the medium-weight Tejas Mark 2. The focus should be on developing that. That is a much bigger airframe, it has got much more capabilities," he added.

India still shopping abroad for new jets

Apart from the indigenous programs, India has also been hoping to buy 114 advanced multi-role fighter aircraft (MRFA) from abroad, in what was originally labeled as a global tender.

But that project too has seen excessive delays.

"The Ministry of Defense is now looking at a government-to-government deal, rather than it being a global tender. The 114 aircraft probably may get divided into two parts. One being the Rafale from France and the second could probably see the Su-35 and the Su-57 for which Russians have offered a transfer of technology and production in India," Vohra said.

Starting with a new plan

Some analysts say that the biggest challenge faced by the IAF is actually poor planning, with many voices calling for a new organization that would focus on the issue.

"At present, planning is supposed to be carried out by the Department of Military affairs. With due respect to the services, they are basically soldiers, while their inputs are extremely important, and without their inputs, you cannot have a plan. But at the same time, planning is a specialized job and it's a 24/7 job. You have to have an organization, which has the expertise and the kind of heft which is required to create a plan," former financial advisor Amit Cowshish said.

Other experts argue that the private sector has to get involved in defense production.

"I don't know why the Modi government still relies on the defense public sector units. For 70 years, they've gotten into very wasteful ways. They really are not innovative technologically. There is this kind of vicious cycle the country has gotten into because we started importing things," veteran defense analyst Bharat Karnad told DW.

Will India's defense sector be affected by Trump tariffs?

The US has recently pledged to ramp up tariff on Indian goods to 50% as President Donald Trump seeks to punish the South Asian nation over its purchases of Russian oil and unwillingness to accept Washington's terms on trade.

The dispute, however, could create shockwaves far beyond commerce. Russia is India's biggest defense partner, but New Delhi and Washington have also deepened their defense ties in recent years.

"We do export certain ingredients of defense equipment to America. Probably they will get impacted because of these tariffs. But we hope that this is a temporary phase. India and the US have a lot of cooperation in strategic areas, in transfers of technology and in new emerging technologies. As of now, that has not been impacted by what is happening," Vohra said.

In February, Trump floated the idea to supply the IAF with the American F-35 combat aircraft, although an official offer is yet to be made.

India, on its part, did not respond with much enthusiasm.

The IAF chief said at the time that India would need to analyze the stealth fighters and they haven't given it a thought. The latest tariff threat has sparked rumors that India will not be buying the F-35s due to deteriorating ties. New Delhi is yet to confirm or deny these claims.

"There is no immediate threat for the defense industry from the US-India trade crisis. Even if the F-35 deal does not work out, India has alternatives available, we have the Russian and French options. The Indian Air Force is not greatly bothered by these tariffs," Cowshish said.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic