India and Indonesia are in the final stages of negotiating a $450-million (€440-million) deal for the export of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile.

If concluded, Indonesia will become the second ASEAN nation, after the Philippines, to acquire this missile system.

During Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto's recent visit to New Delhi, where he was the guest of honor at India's Republic Day, he met with BrahMos CEO Jaiteerth Joshi in the presence of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

A high-level delegation led by Indonesian navy chief Admiral Muhammad Ali also visited the BrahMos facility.

Defense boost amid China tensions

The missile, developed jointly by India and Russia, has gained traction among several countries in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, which are looking to procure both the shore-based and ship-mounted versions.

Many experts believe the missile procurement is part of Indonesia's broader strategy to enhance its naval power and modernize its military amid growing security concerns related to China's territorial ambitions and assertiveness in the region.

China is pursuing territorial ambitions in the South China Sea through a combination of coercive tactics and military buildup, despite overlapping claims by Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Srikanth Kondapalli, a professor of China studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, told DW that India's offer to Indonesia to supply BrahMos cruise missiles is at an advanced stage of negotiations and should not be seen otherwise.

"I do not think that India is concerned about it. China had even transferred nuclear and ballistic missiles to Pakistan and submarines to Myanmar, Bangladesh and others, thus impinging on Indian security," said Kondapalli.

"At that time, China mentioned that it is a deal between two sovereign countries, hence now [China] should not have any anger on Indian sales to Southeast Asia or any other country. India also is aware that it is trying to normalize relations with China," he added.

India's Defense Ministry and Foreign Office declined to comment on the specifics of the missile deal.

India's balancing act

Since October, India and China have engaged in a series of confidence-building measures aimed at normalizing their bilateral relations, which had been strained due to border disputes and geopolitical tensions.

This renewed engagement follows a significant meeting between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the October 2024 BRICS Summit in the Russian city of Kazan.

Both countries have moved forward to stabilize ties by agreeing to resume direct air services, start pilgrimages and increase cross-border trade.

The effort began after both sides pulled back their troops from two face-off points on their contested high-altitude border following border clashes in 2020, which resulted in the deaths of at lease 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese troops.

Kondapalli pointed out that by arming Indonesia, India is signaling that its engagement with China will not come at the cost of its Indo-Pacific commitments.

"The sale of the BrahMos is related to creating a balance of power in Southeast Asia as China is militarizing the region to the exclusion of other countries," he said.

Alka Acharya, honorary director of the Institute of Chinese Studies in New Delhi, said the missile sale has been on the cards for a very long time and has prompted criticism from some Chinese commentators.

"This is not a new offer so that it could be linked to current tensions. But obviously, it will not go unnoticed or disregarded, and the Chinese official response would certainly state their objections strongly — especially with how this would destabilize the region and help outside powers who are inimical to China," Acharya told DW.

"However, the Indian position should be that this is not intended against any third country and is for the legitimate defense of Indonesia. It is not likely to derail the normalization process between India and China," she added.

Deterrence without confrontation

India and Indonesia are concerned about the increased muscle-flexing by a rising China, prompting analysts to argue that the "China factor" provides a strong basis for bilateral security cooperation.

Indonesia has had repeated confrontations with China over the Natuna Islands, which lie within its exclusive economic zone. But they are also claimed by China, and Chinese fishing vessels and coast guard ships have entered the zone.

In a few weeks, a high-level Indonesian defense delegation is expected to visit India to continue discussions on defense cooperation.

Anil Wadhwa, a former Indian diplomat, said this trend of diversifying defense partnerships away from traditional reliance on China should not be seen as an encroachment on China's sphere of influence that could lead to likely diplomatic friction.

"China has been actively helping Pakistan in developing its naval capability and its air force through the F-17 fighter jets that are collaboratively produced, and has facilitated sales of military equipment to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka as well as Myanmar," Wadhwa told DW.

Wadhwa also referred to the Philippines' 2022 purchase of a $375-million BrahMos anti-ship missile system.

"As far as the proposed Indian sale of BrahMos missiles to Indonesia and before that to the Philippines, it is all as a response to these countries seeking a defensive deterrent against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea," he said. He added that under these circumstances, India should not be overly concerned about a Chinese reaction.

Edited by: Keith Walker