Around 12 hours after Ali Khamenei's compound had been largely destroyed by dozens of bombs, Iranian state television confirmed the death of the cleric and supreme leader.

The complex, known as "Beit-e Rahbari" ("House of Leadership") and located in the center of the capital Tehran, was one of the first targets of the US and Israeli military strikes against Iran on February 28.

The 86-year-old ayatollah, who had repeatedly expressed his desire for a martyr's death in his public speeches, had apparently remained there with his family in the last few days despite the high probability of an attack.

Numerous videos have since circulated online showing people celebrating Khamenei's demise. The videos have been verified, but it is unclear whether and to what extent people in Iran are able to view them — internet services in the country have been largely shut down since yesterday's attacks.

But state television has been broadcasting gatherings of supporters of the Islamic Republic across the country to mourn Khamenei's death. Officially, a 40-day mourning period and a week-long work stoppage (official holidays) have been ordered.

Top ranks eliminated by US-Israeli strikes

According to Iranian state television, in addition to supreme leader Khamenei, key figures in Iran were also killed at a meeting of the Defense Council, including Mohammad Pakpour, head of the Revolutionary Guards, Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, and Abdolrahim Mousavi, the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces.

Nevertheless, Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said in an interview with Iranian state television that a provisional leadership council would soon be established to oversee the political transition of power.

Larijani also said that Iran did not want war with its neighbors, but would continue to attack US military bases in Middle Eastern countries.

In an official statement on Sunda, the Revolutionary Guard vowed retaliation and announced that the path determined by Khamenei would be continued.

"The largest military operations in the history of the Iranian armed forces against Israel and US bases in the region will begin shortly," said a press release from the Islamic Republic's elite military force.

Khamenei's assassination will not change the course of the war in the short term, according to Middle East expert Farzan Sabet. "In my opinion, the killing of individual leaders will not immediately lead to a rapid collapse of the system," he told DW.

Sabet specializes in economic sanctions and security issues in the Middle East at the Global Governance Center of the Geneva Graduate Institute.

"From a military and security policy perspective, Iran appears to have been prepared for a possible escalation for about a month and a half and also has experience from last summer's 12-day conflict," he said. "As a result, smaller military units throughout the country are able to continue operations based on previously developed plans of action, even without direct orders from headquarters." 

Iran's decentralized system maintains its ability to act, he added.

Regional escalation looms

Despite its statements, the Islamic Republic currently appears determined to implement the strategy it announced before the outbreak of the current conflict: To inflame a comprehensive regional war.

So far, Iran has not only attacked US military bases in the region, such as those in Qatar and Bahrain, but has also targeted oil infrastructure in eastern Saudi Arabia and densely populated urban centers such as Dubai.

"There is no realistic scenario in which Tehran could demonstrate military superiority over the American or Israeli armed forces," Iran expert Arman Mahmoudian, a lecturer in Middle Eastern studies at the University of South Florida, told DW.

But Iran could escalate the war until the militarily superior side ends it. "The goal is to maximize the cost of war by destabilizing the entire region," he said. The situation could therefore escalate significantly further, according to Mahmoudian.

A possible disruption of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, as threatened by the Revolutionary Guards on Saturday, or the activation of allied militias such as the Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq or the Houthi movement in Yemen, could be further elements of this strategy, according to Sara Kermanian, researcher in international relations at the University of Sussex.

Resilience despite high cost of war

Although the costs of this war for Iran may be very high due to the asymmetry of military might between the two sides, the country still has great strategic resilience.

"The Islamic Republic is fighting for its political survival and, as a non-democratic system, is subject to less domestic pressure with regard to human or financial losses," said Kermanian.

"If Iran survives the conflict without internal power struggles, this could already be considered a strategic success. The US, on the other hand, could come under greater pressure if the war continues to escalate."

Under these circumstances, the question ultimately boils down to who can withstand the pressure longer. Israel and the US undoubtedly have military superiority, but that plays only a minor role in determining what costs both sides can accept for the war.

The Iranian regime is fighting for its existence and proved during the crackdown on protests at the beginning of the year that it is prepared to make the population pay any price.

Trump has warned Iran against further escalation. "Iran just stated that they are going to hit very hard today, harder than they have ever hit before," he wrote on the Truth Social platform. "THEY BETTER NOT DO THAT, HOWEVER, BECAUSE IF THEY DO, WE WILL HIT THEM WITH A FORCE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE!"

It remains to be seen whether a period of further escalation will lead to negotiations between the US and influential players within Iran's reconfigured political system.

This article has been translated from German.