For months, many countries have warned of an escalation in the war in the Middle East. These concerns are now magnified in the wake of Iran's latest attack on Israel.

Iran is one of the regional powers in the Middle East. Another is Turkey, and Ankara has been on the side of the Palestinian people since Israel's offensive on the Gaza Strip in response to the October 7, 2023 attack by the terrorist organization Hamas. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly accused Israel of committing "genocide." He has also repeatedly emphasized that he does not see Hamas as a terrorist organization and often speaks of his "Palestinian brothers."

 

'Instrumentalizing foreign policy for domestic political goals'

Erdogan recently stoked fears within his own population: In a speech to the Turkish parliament on October 1, 2024, he accused Israel of also wanting to attack Turkey. "The Israeli government, which has gone mad in the Holy Land, will possibly target our homeland with its religious fanaticism after Palestine and Lebanon," he said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dreams of occupying Anatolia and is "chasing a utopia," Erdogan added.

But experts see Erdogan's statements as unrealistic. "I think this scenario is impossible," said Selin Nasi, a political scientist at the London School of Economics (LSE). "Turkey is a NATO member. Attacking Turkey would mean confronting NATO and the US. Besides, there is no reason for Israel to attack Turkey."

Erdogan is trying to consolidate his base and show solidarity with the Palestinians, he added. Turkey has the second largest army in NATO, making it not only strong militarily, but also a close ally of the United States—just like Israel.

Erdogan's statements are about something else, said Ilter Turan, professor emeritus of international relations and former rector the Istanbul Bilgi University. "The president is instrumentalizing foreign policy for his domestic political goals. Israel definitely has no such intention,”"he said.

Ankara is attempting to draw attention to other issues in the face of major domestic political failures, he said. Turkey is in an economic crisis and Erdogan has been losing political support since the last local elections.

Would Turkey dare to interfere?

According to Turan, there is zero likelihood of Turkey becoming a party to the war. "Turkey will not actively participate in the conflict, as Ankara does not want to be part of the war," he stressed. Ankara would not approve of a possible retaliation by Israel against Iran, as Turkey maintains a distant friendship with Iran. While the government could possibly offer Tehran spiritual support, it would not go beyond this, Turan said.

"The Turkish government's pro-Palestinian and anti-Israeli stance has created the false impression that it supports Iran and its militias. This is misleading,” explained the LSE's Selin Nasi. Turkey is concentrating on shoring up its economy and a regional conflict would only bring additional instability. Therefore it is not expected to intervene in Gaza or Lebanon. "Turkey will not want to confront Israel militarily," Nasi said.

Competitors with mutual respect

Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia "continue to compete with each other, as they have in the past," said Mithat Rende, Turkey's former ambassador to Qatar who is familiar with the geopolitical dynamics of the region. Turkey cultivates relations with Iran "with care and respect," although Tehran and Ankara often differ when it comes to the various regional conflicts, he said.

"Turkey does not want Iran to expand its dominance in the region through the non-state actors that it supports and arms. At the same time, Turkey shares with other regional powers the goal of preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power," Rende said.

How does Turkey view Hezbollah?

A fundamental difference of opinion between the two regional powers lies in their different interpretations of Islam: Turkey is predominantly Sunni and the government under Erdogan primarily supports Sunni organizations such as Hamas, which is classified as a terrorist organization by the EU and the US. By contrast, the Iranian population is predominantly Shiite, which leads to close ties between the Iranian regime and Shiite groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

These religious and political differences shape the geopolitical alliances between the two countries accordingly.

Such differences are also reflected in Ankara's recent expressions of condolences: when Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed, Erdogan declared a state mourning in his honor. But after the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, he expressed his solidarity with the Lebanese people, but did not mention Nasrallah's name. "It is understandable and unsurprising that no comparable sympathy was shown," Turan said.

This article was originally published in German.