Iran has canceled parts of the nuclear deal and threatened to blockade access to oil in the Persian Gulf. The US has sent a fleet into the area. Is a third Gulf War in the making? Udo Bauer answers some big questions.
Image: Reuters/R. Homavandi
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How did the current escalation develop?
Last month the US further tightened its sanctions against Iran, making it even more difficult for Tehran to export oil than it had been previously. The consequent prospect of further economic decline left Iran feeling threatened. In addition, Washington recently recategorized the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a powerful and elite security force, as a terrorist organization. The rhetoric of the Iranian regime has subsequently grown sharper: Both the head of the IRGC's navy force and President Hassan Rouhani have recently threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
What would such a blockade mean?
The whole world would feel the effects. This narrow sea route between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman sees some 30% of the world's crude oil transported through it. Moreover, a blockade would be relatively easy to orchestrate. At some points the strait is only 40 kilometers (25 miles) wide, and only two paths, each 3 kilometers wide, are even navigable for supertankers. A few judiciously placed mines could shut down all traffic. If Iran were to do that, a war in the Gulf could well be unavoidable. But it's doubtful that Tehran would go this far, since such a move would antagonize not only the US but also all of Iran's oil-exporting neighbors in the Gulf.
What other cards does Tehran hold?
The nuclear deal itself. Though the US has withdrawn from the 2015 pact, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the European signatories and Iran are still committed to it and have been skillfully circumventing the unilateral US sanctions. But now the Iranian government wants to suspend parts of the deal, keeping more enriched uranium and other nuclear components than allowed for. Iran has also said it will start resuming high-grade uranium enrichment unless the deal's signatory states can manage to protect its oil and banking sectors from sanctions within the next 60 days.
Is the nuclear deal doomed?
That depends on how the Europeans react to Tehran's ultimatum. There's a good chance they'll simply reject it as attempted blackmail, in which case the deal would almost certainly be dead.
The USS Abraham Lincoln is on the way to the Persian GulfImage: Reuters/U.S. Navy/Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class, Clint Davis
Does the US have military plans?
The US is likely to massively increase troop presence in the Gulf region. A fleet attached to the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is on the way to the area and will arrive in the next few days. In addition, B-52 bombers are expected to be transferred into the region. These two measures will allow the US to react immediately to any Iranian attack. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also did not rule out military action in remarks made last week.
Do we know anything about Iran's plans?
Yes, we do. However, it comes from US intelligence agencies, which have not always been right in the past. According to the agencies' "concrete and credible" information, the Iranians are planning attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria. Iran also allegedly sent short-range rockets to Iraq on sailing boats, US cable broadcaster CNN reported, citing high-ranking Iranian officials.
What does the US expect from its regional allies?
The US demands loyalty and protection, which could be seen clearly on Tuesday during Pompeo's surprise visit to Iraq. The Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad has close ties to the similarly Shiite Iranian government, but has the US to thank for its being in power at all. Meanwhile, Sunni-led Saudi Arabia and the smaller Arab emirates are traditionally US allies and hostile to Iran.
So will there be a war or not?
At the moment there won't be, as long as Iran does not do anything rash. The US tends to launch large-scale attacks only once its troops and weapons systems are all totally prepared, but it will surely react quickly if Tehran does decide to blockade the Strait of Hormuz or attack US troops in the region. At the same time, the US has no interest in a large-scale war. President Donald Trump promised during his campaign that he would not launch new wars as quickly as his predecessors. So while there is saber-rattling on both sides, a third major Gulf War is not likely.
Iran nuclear deal — treaty under threat
A year after Donald Trump pulled the US from the international nuclear accord with Iran, the Middle East nation announced it would no longer adhere to some "voluntary commitments" in the accord.
Image: picture-alliance/epa/D. Calma
The deal breaker
President Donald Trump announced on May 8, 2018 that he was pulling the United States out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, arguing that the international accord was not in America's "national interest." The decision threw a cloud of uncertainty over the future of the nuclear accord and raised tensions with US allies in Europe.
Image: Reuters/J. Ernst
Slap in the face
Britain, France and Germany lobbied the Trump administration and Congress to remain in the nuclear accord, arguing that the deal was working and a US violation without a follow up plan would be destabilizing. In European capitals, the Trump administration's withdrawal was viewed as a slap in the face of allies.
Image: Reuters/K. Lamarque
Iran scrap 'voluntary commitments'
A year to the day after Trump's announcement, Iran informed the other signatories of the accord that they would no longer adhere to certain "voluntary commitments." Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the signatory nations had 60 days to implement promises to protect Iran's oil and banking sectors or Iran would resume the enrichment of uranium.
The decision came after the United States deployed an aircraft, the USS Lincoln, along with a bomber task force to the Middle East. Washington said the deployment was intended as a "clear unmistakable message." Iran said it took action because the European Union and others "did not have the power to resist US pressure."
Image: AP
A triumph of diplomacy
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal, was signed in 2015 by United States, China, Russia, France, Germany and Britain (P5+1) and Iran following years of negotiations. Under the international agreement, Iran agreed to dismantle its nuclear program and be subject to monitoring in exchange for the lifting of international nuclear related sanctions.
Image: picture alliance / landov
Compliance and verification
The JCPOA includes a robust monitoring, verification and inspection regime carried out by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The UN watch dog has verified Iran's compliance with the deal in 12 quarterly reports. The JCPOA allows Iran to pursue a peaceful nuclear program for commercial, medical and industrial purposes in line with international non-proliferation standards.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/R. Schlager
Obama's achievement
The Iran nuclear deal was President Barack Obama's signature foreign policy achievement. Seeking to undo nearly every Obama administration legacy, Trump came into office calling it the "worst deal ever." The Trump administration argues the nuclear deal doesn't address other unrelated issues such as Iran's ballistic missiles, regional influence, support for "terrorist" groups and human rights.
Image: Reuters/Y. Gripas
Iranians approved
The nuclear deal and lifting of punishing nuclear related international sanctions created optimism in Iran after years of economic isolation. However, even before Trump pulled the US out of the deal, Tehran blamed the US for holding back international investment and not fulfilling its end of the bargain due to the uncertainty created by Trump's threats.
Image: picture alliance/AA/F. Bahrami
The opponents
After eight years with Barack Obama, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu found the US president he wanted in Donald Trump. The Israeli leader repeatedly slammed the deal despite his own military and intelligence chiefs' assessment the that JCPOA, while not perfect, was working and should be maintained. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the other main opponents of the nuclear deal.
Image: Reuters/R. Zvulun
Who's left?
The EU-3 (Britain, France, Germany) have scrambled to ensure that Iran receives the economic benefits it was promised in order to avoid Tehran pulling out of the deal. As EU businesses face retaliation from the US for doing business with Iran, many are opting to avoid Iran. This would likely be a present to Chinese and Russian businesses.
