Iran's leadership has downplayed the significance of Republican setbacks in the US midterm elections, insisting that the Democratic takeover of Congress is unlikely to alter Washington's policy toward the Islamic Republic.

"If there are still those who believe that America can be persuaded to abandon its hostility toward the Iranian nation through concessions or partisan changes in the US political system, they are gravely mistaken," Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a statement after the vote.

Khamenei also warned that Tehran would respond more forcefully to any future US military action.

The elections took place after months of military confrontation between Tehran and Washington, which disrupted global energy markets and raised fears of a broader regional conflict.

Tehran likely to stick to its course despite US political shift

Mohammad Sadegh Javadi Hesar, Iran-based journalist and member of the reformist party Etemad-e Melli, said the election outcome was unlikely to affect Iran's calculations.

"Iran will not change its position simply because Republicans have lost their majority," he told DW.

According to Javadi Hesar, decisions about ending the conflict will ultimately be made in Washington. Tehran, in turn, is expected to continue insisting on its previous demands for peace, such as the end of all hostilities, including in Lebanon, and the lifting of US naval blockade.

Is a vote for US Democrats a vote against the Iran war?

Others in Iran interpreted the results more positively.

Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf argued that American voters had delivered their verdict on the Iranian conflict.

"The Americans said no to war," Ghalibaf said on X, while acknowledging that rising cost of living also contributed to Donald Trump's party losing the election.

Ghalibaf also mocked US Vice President JD Vance who had acknowledged that the Iran war was the reason the Republicans lost.

"Skip the TED talk. Why not say this to your boss?" Ghalibaf wrote on X.

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Iran not only challenged the United States on the battlefield and in the Strait of Hormuz but had also dealt it a political setback in Washington.

Several Iranian media outlets echoed that assessment. The news website Etelaat Online sarcastically suggested that the long-discussed "regime change" had ultimately taken place not in Iran, but in the United States.

Looking back to Jimmy Carter

Some commentators drew historical parallels to another period of US-Iran tension.

The state-affiliated Mehr News Agency compared Trump's political troubles to those of former US President Jimmy Carter, recalling the failed 1980 American military operation to rescue hostages held in Tehran.

At the time, the US deployed eight military helicopters to rendezvous with six transport planes in the Iranian desert before moving on Tehran to free the hostages. However, the aircraft encountered a sand storm and a deadly crash between a helicopter and a C-130 transport plane, killing eight Americans.

The agency argued that the 1980 episode demonstrated the limits of US military power in resolving disputes with Iran. Carter went on to lose the presidential election to Ronald Reagan later that year.

Iran released the hostages in January 1981, just minutes after Reagan was sworn in for his first presidential term.

No winds of change between Iran and US

Hardline media, however, dismissed the election's broader significance.

Tasnim News Agency, which is close to Iran's Revolutionary Guards, argued that there is little meaningful difference between Republicans and Democrats when it comes to Iran policy. According to the agency, both parties pursue similar goals toward the Islamic Republic despite differences in rhetoric.

Using a Persian proverb, Tasnim summed up its view bluntly: "The yellow dog is the brother of the jackal," suggesting that neither side should be expected to act differently toward Iran.

Diplomacy rather than escalation?

Veteran Iranian diplomat Hossein Alizadeh says the actual midterm fallout is difficult to predict, but notes US politics sends ripples out across the entire world.

"The USA is a superpower and a hegemonic power. Consequently, developments in that country are of significance to the entire world — from Mexico and Canada, through the European Union, to China, and, of course, the Middle East," he told DW.

Alizadeh is an expert in international relations who served in the diplomatic corps of the Islamic Republic for 22 years, before resigning in 2010 in protest of the 2009 Iranian post-election crackdown.

The Finland-based analyst considers another large-scale military escalation by the USA to be unlikely. While the Democrats are also opponents of the Islamic Republic, "unlike the Trump administration, they opted for a diplomatic agreement with Tehran. The 2015 nuclear deal placed Iranian nuclear activities under the oversight of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)," says Alizadeh.

He points out that the Democrats and the US allies were not in favor or attacking Iran.

"The negative repercussions of such a war have already become clear," he told DW.

This piece was originally published in German