High-stakes talks
June 16, 2014Time is of the essence.
The international community and Iran set July 20, 2014 as a deadline to come up with a sound compromise in a conflict that has smouldered for years: Iran's nuclear program.
An interim agreement was reached in November 2013 and on Monday (16.6.2014), just weeks ahead of the deadline, Iran and the P5+1 group entered a new round of nuclear talks in Vienna.
The so-called P5+1 group includes representatives from the UN Security Council – the US, Britain, France, Russia and China – as well as Germany
Earlier this month, US and Iranian representatives met for the first time for official bilateral talks to secure a deal. While both Tehran and Washington called the talks "constructive and positive," the negotiating partners are still far from a final agreement.
Compromise hinges on three main sticking points.
The centrifuges
Iran has about 19,000 centrifuges, 50 percent of which are in operation to enrich uranium. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), about 1,000 centrifuges are advanced and thus particularly efficient. Iran maintains these centrifuges, too, are part of its civilian nuclear program, but in theory, they could be used to produce uranium for a nuclear bomb in even less time.
Within the P5+1 group, France in particular is reluctant to concede Iran such a large number of centrifuges. "Wanting thousands of centrifuges is pointless unless you want the bomb," French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said last week. So far, Tehran has not budged on the number of its centrifuges.
The Arak reactor
The next thorny issue is the future of the Arak heavy water reactor.
This type of nuclear reactor does not require enriched uranium but operates on natural uranium – of which Iran has large deposits, making it an attractive alternative. These reactors produce more weapons-grade plutonium than others, which in turn could be used to build nuclear weapons. The West demands that Iran modify the Arak reactor to ensure that it produces less weapons-grade plutonium.
Basically, Tehran agreed to redesign the reactor, which is still under construction, to produce less than one kilogram of plutonium per year instead of 10. Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran's Vice-President and head of the country's atomic energy organization, mentioned this almost 90 percent reduction to the official IRNA news agency, adding that a few "technical details" remain to be clarified.
IAEA inspection
Western demands of regular unlimited access to all Iranian nuclear plants are one of the most exasperating issues between the negotiating partners, as the international community complains about a lack of transparency, blocked inspections and secret nuclear plants in Iran.
The P5+1 group insists on securing comprehensive and close controls of Iran's nuclear program - even after reaching an agreement, they hope to ensure that Tehran actually observes the deal. In the interim accord signed by the negotiating parties in Geneva in November 2013, Iran pledged more transparency. But the IAEA says it still does not have complete access to Iran's nuclear facilities.
Iraq crisis boost
Despite differences between the P5+1 group and Tehran, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani is confident of a possible agreement before the deadline. If not by then, "negotiations will simply continue for a few more weeks or months," he said.
The current situation in Iraq could give the nuclear talks with Iran an added impetus.
"Iran and the West have the same enemy: ISIS," German Mideast expert Michael Lüders told DW, adding that both sides perceive the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria as a fundamental threat.
Possibilities of closer cooperation between Washington and Tehran are already being weighed behind closed doors. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday (16.6.2014) that the Obama administration is preparing for direct talks with Iran and may use the Vienna nuclear talks as a venue.
That could add a key momentum to the nuclear talks, Lüders says.
"It really would be a tragedy if the nuclear talks between Iran and the international community were to fail," he says."In that case, Iran would not be motivated to fight ISIS, but would leave it to the West."
We can just "hope the Americans, the Europeans and the Iranians reach a breakthrough", Lüders says.