Chancellor Friedrich Merz has gone back and forth in his relationship with Donald Trump: A year ago, Merz presented himself as a sharp critic of Trump. Then came a long phase of rapprochement — political opponents accused Merz of pandering to the US president. This culminated in a visit to the White House about two weeks ago. There, the chancellor expressed understanding for the US-Israel attacks on Iran, in which Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was targeted and killed. Merz said he did not want to lecture Trump on matters of international law.

Now the chancellor is backtracking: He feels Trump is going far too far in Iran.

"The government will not participate in this war," government spokesperson Stefan Kornelius declared on Monday. Nor will it participate in a military operation to enable ships to pass the Strait of Hormuz.

"This war has nothing to do with NATO; it is not NATO's war," he added when journalists asked him about a possible contribution by the German Navy.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius reaffirmed this stance on Monday, saying, "It is not our war; we did not start it. We want diplomatic solutions and a swift end, but additional warships in the region will likely not contribute to that."

Pistorius added that he does not consider the existing EU Operation Aspides, a EU military operation in response to Houthi engagements securing sea lanes in the Red Sea, to be suitable for deployment to a mission in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump threatens NATO

"Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint will send ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a nation that has been totally decapitated," Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform in reference to Iran's blockade of the shipping route.

The US leader then backed up his demand with a warning that NATO faced a bleak future if it did not help secure the strait, which is vital for oil transport.

"The United States did not consult us before this war either. And in that respect, we believe that this is not the concern of NATO or the federal government either," German government spokesman Kornelius said

Energy prices are weighing on the economy

In the wake of the war in Iran, Chancellor Merz has once again adopted a confrontational stance toward Trump. "With every passing day of the war, more questions arise. Above all, we are concerned that there is apparently no joint plan [of the US and Israel] for bringing this war to a swift and decisive conclusion," he said at the weekend, ten days after the war began.

A drawn-out war is not in Germany's interest, he continued, and warned of far-reaching consequences for Europe, including in the areas of security, energy supply, and migration.

Above all, the sharp rise in oil prices shows how directly that the war is affecting Germany as well. And that is precisely what hits Merz where it hurts most: Germany's economic recovery is his most important political goal at the moment. Even without the Iran war factor, the economy is struggling to emerge from the recession and is doing so only thanks to massive new investment resulting in public debt. German companies are filing for bankruptcy or relocating their operations abroad, and unemployment is rising.

The Ifo Economic Institute has now predicted how the war in Iran is likely to affect the German economy: It will dampen the recovery and fuel inflation. If the war ends soon, the Ifo Institute predicts, economic growth this year would be reduced by 0.2% to 0.8%. If the war lasts longer, growth would have to be reduced by 0.4%.

Merz faces a double dilemma

Merz knows that the economic situation is likely to determine the success or failure of his government.

The international crisis may be impacting on state elections in the eastern states of Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in eastern Germany in September. There, the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is far ahead in the polls. The AfD advocates an end to sanctions against Russia. The fact that Donald Trump now also wants to suspend sanctions in the energy sector to take pressure off oil and gas prices plays right into the AfD's hands.

This presents a dilemma for Friedrich Merz. He wants to maintain sanctions against Moscow to keep pressure on Russia in the war in Ukraine. Yet a large majority in Germany expects the federal government, above all, to do something about high energy prices.

Polls also show overwhelming public opposition to any suggestion of German involvement in the war against Iran. This is the chancellor's second dilemma: he wants to present himself as a reliable ally of the United States. After painstakingly building a good relationship with Trump, he now finds himself forced to distance himself again.

After all, Merz is not alone in Europe in his refusal to make a military contribution. The United Kingdom and France, both of which have strong naval forces, have so far remained reserved. The willingness to follow the US into a war that Trump started without consulting his allies is very low there, just as it is in Germany.

This article was originally written in German.

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