"There's a very good chance we're going to make a deal" with Tehran, US President Donald Trump told reporters on Thursday amid hopes for a second round of talks between the United States and Iran this weekend aimed at ending the Middle East conflict.

"They've agreed to give us back the nuclear dust," he said, referring to Iran's enriched uranium stockpile that Washington says could be used for building nuclear weapons.

Trump also claimed that Iran had offered not to possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years.

"Iran wants to make a deal. They are willing to do things today that they weren't willing to do two months ago," the US president added. "We have a very successful negotiation going on right now. If it happens, it will be announced fairly soon."

Trump said the next round of US-Iran talks could take place at the weekend, and an extension of a two-week ceasefire was possible, but might not be needed as Tehran wanted a deal.

He also gave a positive assessment of the ceasefire that was agreed on Thursday in Lebanon, where Israel is fighting the Iran-aligned Hezbollah militant group.

Trump said he was confident that if the US and Iran reach a deal, "oil goes way down, prices go way down, inflation goes way down."

Pakistani mediators, who have been facilitating the high-stakes negotiations between the warring sides, say backdoor diplomacy has achieved progress.

A Pakistani source involved in the mediation efforts told the Reuters news agency on Friday that an upcoming meeting between the ​two sides could result in the signing of a memorandum of understanding, followed by a comprehensive deal within 60 days.

"Both sides are agreeing in principle. And technical bits come later," said the unnamed source.

Skepticism in Iran

Meanwhile, a different tone is emerging from Iran, with state media reporting that the government is united behind the speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and his negotiating team, who are conducting the talks from the Iranian side.

The coverage has portrayed it as reflecting national unity and a "diplomacy of enhanced strength."

Ghalibaf, meanwhile, has emphasized the close ties between the Islamic Republic and its "axis of resistance," which includes Iran-allied groups across the Middle East such as the Hezbollah militant outfit in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. They are "one body," in war as in ceasefire, he stressed.

At the same time, skepticism is growing in Iran, where many believe Washington is using the ceasefire to step up its military efforts.

Reports of further US troop deployments reinforce that impression.

Iranian officials, therefore, say they are approaching potential talks with "great caution" and that the military is prepared to tackle any threats.

The deep mistrust between the two sides means reaching an agreement would be particularly challenging, not only concerning the nuclear program but also on other thorny issues like the Strait of Hormuz, international sanctions against Iran and Tehran's support for its regional proxies.

Progress made?

"The first round of negotiations in Islamabad appears to have failed," Hamidreza Azizi of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), told DW. "However, both American and Iranian sources indicate that at least some progress has been made."

Three issues are crucial, he said: the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear program and Tehran's regional proxies.

Conrad Schetter, a peace and conflict researcher and director of the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies, echoed this view.

"Overall, the prevailing impression is that the two sides have not moved any closer on key issues, neither regarding the US demands nor those of Iran," he told DW.

At the same time, the expert added, there has recently been a certain easing of rhetoric, which at least opens up some room to maneuver.

Iran's nuclear program remains a stumbling block

The future of Iran's nuclear program remains the core issue. "The US is demanding that Iran remove this material from the country," said Azizi, referring to the enriched uranium.

Tehran, on the other hand, is willing to reduce its stockpiles, but only gradually — and only in exchange for guarantees that it won't be attacked again.

Schetter believes it's hardly realistic for the US to launch another military action to achieve its goals, but reaching a compromise remains difficult.

A temporary waiver is conceivable, he noted. "If an agreement could be reached for about 10 to 12 years, that would likely be a viable compromise."

The row over the Strait of Hormuz

A second key point of contention is the Strait of Hormuz.

For Iran, it is a strategic lever, said Azizi. For the West, however, the waterway is a lifeline for global trade.

Schetter also warned of the risk of escalation, saying that even isolated incidents could trigger "a major military conflict."

Azizi said even if an agreement is reached, the fundamental confrontation between the two sides will persist, more likely in the form of a "gray zone" of tensions and indirect conflicts.

Reports published by a host of global think tanks have also dampened expectations of a lasting peace anytime soon.

"Fast or broad progress in the talks is unrealistic,” wrote experts at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, while Chatham House said, "the ceasefire will be welcomed as a necessary step back from the brink."

Dwindling hope for domestic political change

The negotiations with the US, however, are unlikely to weaken the regime in Tehran. "I don't expect any fundamental improvements here," said Schetter. The regime has shown that it can remain stable even under massive pressure, the expert underlined, adding that the harsh repression at home and its resilience in the war have actually strengthened it.

For the Iranian people, this means that hope for political change continues to fade, Schetter noted. 

Many are likely to conclude that this regime is virtually impossible to overthrow — regardless of external pressure. At the same time, the regime's demonstrated ability to act and survive serves as a deterrent, he said, adding that no increase in civil liberties should be expected in the short term.

This article was originally written in German.